Shake'n'Baken

Raheem Brock Pic/Avatar

2008-12-18T21:34:00.001-08:00

Awesome Raheem Brock pic posted by BBS at Stampede Blue.

And here it is cropped for an avatar, like I'm using now on one site.

It turns out I'm good at this Fantasy Football thing

2008-11-18T10:35:00.000-08:00

53rd man?

2008-10-17T05:38:00.000-07:00

Brock back at DT

2008-09-12T16:29:00.001-07:00

2008-08-12T21:24:00.000-07:00

Did I miss something big?

2008-08-03T20:50:00.000-07:00

Only saw about half a quarter of the preseason opener. I saw this when checking the NFL.com box score.

Cubs All Star recap

2008-07-16T10:00:00.000-07:00

Total Batting: 0-4, 2Ks, 1 walk
Ramirez: 1PA, 1BB
Soto: 0-2, 1K
Fukudome 0-2 1K

Total Pitching: 4 IP, 0R, 6Ks, 0BB, 1H (who was picked off at 1st)
Zambrano: 2IP, 1K, 1H
Dempster: 1IP, 3K
Marmol: 1IP, 2K

Fun Fact and Cubs leaders

2008-07-13T18:20:00.000-07:00

Ryan Theriot's OBP is higher than his SLG, by 25 points. .396 to .371. That's a whole lot of on-base and laughably little power (Big Z is slugging .481, Fukudome is the next lowest everyday player at .409)

Great Hitter - Power = Ryan Theriot

Cubs leaders through Saturday's game (min 50 PA)
PA: Lee (423), Theriot (387), Fukudome (385)
R: Lee (63), Ramirez/Fukudome (59)
2B: Lee (26), Soto (24), Ramirez (22)
3B: Lee (3), Fukudome/DeRosa (2)
HR: Ramirez (17), Soto (16), Lee/Soriano (15)
BB: Fukudome (55), Ramirez (47), Lee/Fukudome/DeRosa (42)
SB: Theriot (15), Fukudome (8), Soriano (7)
SB % (min 5 attempts): Soriano (7 of 8, 88%), Lee (5 of 7, 71%), Fukudome (8 of 12, 67%)
BA: Zambrano (.352), Theriot (.322), Lee (.304)
OBP: Theriot (.396), Blanco (.393), Ramirez (.387)
SLG: Jim Edmonds (.550), Soriano (.547), Soto (.521)
OPS+: Edmonds (135), Ramirez (134), Soto (126)
VORP: Lee (27.8), Soto (27.1), Ramirez (26.3)

Cubs worsts (min 100 PA)
HR: Theriot/Cedeno (1), Reed Johnson (3)
BB: Johnson/Cedeno (13), Soriano (15)

SB % min 5 attempts: Johnson (50%)

Worst (min 50 PA)
BA: Felix Pie (.222), Mike Fontenot (.266), Edmonds/Johnson (.267)
OBP: Pie (.286), Soriano (.332), Johnson (.333)
SLG: Pie (.286), Blanco (.350), Cedeno (.354)
OPS+: Pie (50), Cedeno/Blanco (82), Johnson (85)
VORP: Pie (-2), Blanco (1.2), Johnson (1.8)

Pitching leaders (min 15 IP)
IP: Zambrano (120.3), Dempster (188), Lilly (115.3)
HitsPer9IP: Marmol (4.99), Hill (5.95), Wood (6.45)
BBper9: Lieber (1.01), Howery (1.17), Wood (2.62), Zambrano (2.84)
SO9: Cotts (12.64), Marmol (12.04), Wood (11.28)
HR9: Wood (0.20), Zambrano (0.60), Marquis (0.72)
ERA: Zambrano (2.84), Cotts (2.87), Wood (3.02)
ERA+: Zambrano (157), Cotts (155), Wood (148), Demptser (143)
VORP: Zambrano (36.8), Dempster (27.6), Wood (13.2)

Pitching worsts (min 15 IP)
H9: Lieber (11.28), Howery (10.57),
BB9: Hill (8.24), Hart (6.27), Cotts (5.17)
SO9: Marquis (4.80), Lieber (5.24), Zambrano (5.83)
HR9: Cotts (1.72), Lilly (1.64), Marshall (1.59)
ERA: Hart (7.23), Lilly (4.68), Howery (4.50)
ERA+: Hart (56), Lilly (95), Howry (99), Marquis (100)
VORP: Hart (-5), Hill (3.8), Wuertz (4.1), Howry (4.2), Marshall (6.1)

Post 100

2008-06-16T12:54:00.000-07:00

to tell you that it may be a bit for 101. I'm filling in as a contributing writer at Stampede Blue so I'll be focusing on that for a while. If something Cubs related really grabs me I'll post it here and I'll probably copy paste my Stampede Blue posts over here eventually, but for now check me out over at Stampede Blue.

Replacing Soriano

2008-06-12T12:39:00.000-07:00

While I was evaluating the Cubs offense this season the 136 million dollar man, Alfonso Soriano, was hit by a pitch last night and fractured a bone in his hand. He's expected to be out for 6 weeks. Luckily Soriano plays a position that isn't very defensively demanding so the Cubs have plenty of options to fill his lineup spot. Here are the possibilities I've seen.

Mark DeRosa, currently the Cubs everyday second baseman so really Soriano's replacement would be the guy that became the new 2nd baseman.

LF Matt Murton, Currently in AAA Iowa and performing very well there, hitting .311 with .411 OBP. He plays solid D, but has no power. Overall he's been a bit above average major league hitter. Murton is only 26 and has proven he can be at least an average major league player. There's no reason he should be sitting in AAA if the Cubs outfield isn't set.

CF Reed Johnson, He's been the Cubs centerfielder for most of the year, but Jim Edmonds is squeezing time away from him by being an adequate offensive player.

1B/LF Micah Houfpaur, He has only 20 major league at bats, but he made the most of them with 8 hits, 3 of them doubles and a walk for a line of .421/.450/.579 All three of those are better than he hit last year in AAA (though the SLG is close) so obviously he don't keep doing that, but a .911 OPS in AAA deserves a major league look.

2B/LF Eric Patterson, Only 14 major league place appearances so I'll ignore the -10 career OPS+. Patterson has an AAA OPS in the .800s and showed off some speed stealing 42 bases (vs 9 caught stealing for 82% success) in a bit over a year in AAA Iowa.

2B Mike Fontenot, above average defensively at 2nd base but not a great hitter, 88 OPS+. Mediocre batting average and OBP with no power. Maybe an upgrade from DeRosa defensively but a clear step down on offense.

2B/SS Ronny Cedeno, Can play above average defense at SS or 2B and in just over 100 at bats this year has been almost exactly average as a hitter (99 OPS+). He hasn't hit well previously, 63 career OPS+, but is only 25 so figuring it out now wouldn't be unheard of, especially after spending most of last season in AAA OPSing .959

Matt Murton has shown he can both play left field, be a league average hitter and is young enough to expect progression from that. He's the clear choice of fill-ins for Soriano. DeRosa is having a career year at the plate while playing solid D, so I wouldn't do anything to mess that up. Houfpair, Patterson and Cedeno haven't proven they can hit major league pitching. Cendeno has come the closest to proving it and is a good defender so he'd be my second choice. Reed Johnson and Mike Fontenot can't hit and aren't good enough defenders to justify playing them with that bad of hitting.

Free Matt Murton

Are the Cubs for real? (offensive edition)

2008-06-11T11:56:00.001-07:00

-The NFL draft is long gone and training camp is over a month away. The potential signing of Rosevelt Colvin is the only Colts news pending in the next few weeks. So I'm going to talk about the sport that comes in at a distance second to football.-

The Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball with 40% of the season already played. So are my Cubbies really a contender? To check I'll look at the role luck is playing in the outcomes
of the Cubs games to date and how Cubs players are performing compared to their career and recent history. Obviously the evaluation with be Sabermetrics based (in case that's a problem I'll define everything I use at the end), I'm strongly pro stats in football so it's not a stretch to guess I like them in a sport with more conducive format and where statistical analysis based management has brought success (why the Red Sox and A's are by 2nd and 3rd favorite teams: they are doing it right/righter so deserve success).

So lets start with the good, the offense. The Cubs lead the national league in runs scored, hits, doubles, batting average and on-base percentage.

The Cubs top performer offensively has been Aramis Ramirez. He's batting .299/.416/.507 for a OPS of .923, OPS+ of 137 and a VORP of 20.5 so far (on pace for 51.3).

So can Aramis keep that up?
In his four full seasons with the Cubs (I'm not using career numbers because he's clearly improved since he was one of the 5 youngest players in the majors in his first two years with the Pirates and because I think his over 2,000 place appearances in that time is a solid base to work from) he's never had a OPS+ lower than 126. His career best is 138. Last season his was 129. So overall he's performing outside of what is expected from his previous years.
How about how is he doing it?
His batting average his a bit below the .305 he's hit in the last four years combined and down from .310 last year, but not far out of line at .299.
His OBP is at a career high smashing .416. His previous best is .373, he's already topped his walk total from 2005. He's about 50 points over his OBP for the last 4 years. Why is he walking so much more and why isn't he having a career year since he is reaching base so much more?
His SLG average easily answers the second question. .507 is 40 points lower than he's ever hit in a full season in Chicago, which was last year. So he's getting on base a lot more, but hitting for less more for a total of a bit more production than he's averaged the last 4 years. Aramis Ramirez like the Cubs team as a whole is walking a lot more. The why I'll talk about in the end.

Alfonso Soriano was suppose to be the (expensive) solution to the Cubs offensive problems. How's that working out?
284/.330/.550 OPS .880, OPS+ of 123 and 5th in VORP at 16 runs (on pace for 40). Soriano is doing pretty well after a slow start. The OPS+ is an exact match of last seasons all-star performance, despite all three of his slash stats being worse (I'm assuming that would show he's been playing in less hitter friendly parks so far this season). His batting average, OBP and SLG are all in the range set by his last 3 seasons. So that monster contract is working out well so far.

So Aramis has been the most productive, but what about the face of the Cubs over the last few seasons, Derrek Lee?
He's hitting .283/.337/.509 for an OPS of .846, OPS+ of 115 and a team leading 14.3 runs of VORP (on pace for 35.8, 6th on the team) .283 is a 34 point drop from last season and a far cry from 2005 where he pushed for the triple crown (1st BA, 2nd HR, 7th RBI). Lee has averaged .308 in his four (really 3 1/3 since he missed 2/3rds of 2006) previous seasons with the Cubs. Even worse is Lee's .337 OBP. His OBP for his 3 full seasons as a Cub is .391. Lee isn't getting hits and isn't walking (as much he's still an above average hitter).
Finally some normalcy in his SLG. .509 is only a few points off of last year and is only below his .550 SLG for his Cub career because of his insane .662 SLG average in 05. The slugging average isn't out of the usual of his career or far from last year, but because Lee's batting average has dropped while his slugging stayed the same Lee is hitting for more power.
Lee is having his worst full season as a Cub so far, is nowhere near is amazing 2005 and has dropped off significantly from last year. He is hitting for more power, but walking and reaching base on hits less often.

So a star is underperforming but the team is still doing well, that means unexpected heros. Who are they?

Mark DeRosa is hitting .309/.397/.490 for an OPS of .883, an OPS+ of 128 and is second on the team in VORP with 19.7 (pace for 49.3). All of those would be career highs. DeRosa has been an above average hitter at his position only twice, though they were the last two seasons. After two slightly above average seasons it's not unreasonable to expect a 34 year old to be above average, but him being the second most valuable hitter on your team is a surprise. If you are looking for a Cub to fall off his current pace, DeRosa is it.

What about the rest of the lineup
Ryan Theriot looks more like the guy that put up an OPS+ of 135 in 53 games in 2006 than the well below average 74 OPS+ player last year. His line to date is .321/.400/.384 .784 OPS 104 OPS+. An average hitter at the shortstop position is good for a pile of VORP, 5th on the team with 15.9 (39.8). Theriot still isn't hitting for any power like in 2005, but his batting average is back up and he's walking a bit.
Centerfield is the Cubs offensive weak spot with Felix Pie, Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds all grading out as below average hitters, though Reed Johnson is above replacement level in center and Edmonds has been a touch above average for a centerfielder.

Edmonds .265/.321/.449 .770 OPS, 96 OPS+ so far as a Cub. Edmonds hasn't been above average since 2005, but was above average for 11 of the 12 seasons before that, usually by far.

Johnson .267/.342/.364 .706 OPS, 83 OPS+ Johnson is playing better than last season, but worse than his career OPS+ of 94.

Pie can't hit. .222/.286/.286 is awful .572 OPS, 49 OPS+, negative VORP and that's about what he did last year too.

Off the bench, Ward and Hoffpauir have been above average hitters. Cedeno and Blanco have been above average offensively for their positions. Fontenot has been above replacement level.

The Cubs came into the season with two highly touted rookies. There isn't really anything to compare them to, to see if their performance is sustainable, but how are they doing anyway?
Geovany Soto is hitting .281/.371/.538 OPS-.909 132 OPS+ third on the team in VORP with 19.3 (48.3 season). Soto's nearly tripled his career major league at bats already this season, but in 54 at bats last year he had an OPS+ of 175 and came into this year as a ROY frontrunner, so this season so far isn't totally out of the blue.

Kosuke Fukudome is hitting .295/.398/.424 for an OPS of .822 an OPS+ of 113 and is 7th in the team in VORP with 11.8. Kosuke leads the team in walks (but is second to Aramis in reaching base without a hit thanks to Ramirez's 7 HBP to go with a high walk rate.)

The Cubs were 15th in the NL in walks last season. Why are they walking so much more now? Well, what changed. Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto are now every day players. Both walk at a high rate. Soto draws a walk about once every 11 place appearances, Fukudome every 7. That's well above the league average. Fukudome and Soto are both in the top 20 in the majors in walk rate. So the Cubs added two guys that walk a lot, but that doesn't totally explain the team's huge jump in OBP and the rise of other Cub's walk numbers, Aramis, DeRosa and Theriot are in the top 30 in walk rate. The reason for those is that walks are contagious. by definition a walk requires at least 4 pitches. Most hitters don't average 4 pitches per place appearance, so taking a walk wears down a pitcher in addition to getting a runner on base and not making an out. Worn out pitchers aren't as good and very worn out pitchers get replaced by relievers who are generally relievers because they aren't good enough to be starters. If one (or two) players walks more it decreases the quality of pitching the rest of the lineup faces, increasing all of their offensive numbers.

So D-Lee is underperforming, DeRosa is playing over his head, but generally what the Cubs are doing is reasonable compared to their careers. The Cubs offense looks like it's for real.

Definitions-
Slash Stats (.###/.###/.###): the most common way of listing a players offensive production. Batting Average/On-base percentage/Slugging Percentage. A good quick way to see/say how a player is hitting and what type of offensive player they are.
Batting Average: Hits divided by place appearances. (H/PA) The percent of the time a player gets a hit (when he doesn't walk, sac bunt/fly, or get hit by a pitch).
On-base percentage (OBP): The ability of a player to not make an out. Sounds pretty important doesn't it? Sounds really really important. The number of times a player got on base divided by the number of times he came up to bat. (Hits+Walks+Hit by pitch)/(PA+Sac+Walks+HBP)

Slugging Percentage (SLG): like batting average but weighted to measure power. Singles=1, Doubles=2, Triples=3, Home Runs=4. Total bases divided by plate appearances.

On base Plus Slugging (OPS): On base percentage plus slugging percentage. A quick and dirty way to measure a players hitting ability. Not perfect because OBP is more important the SLG (a quick why paraphrased from Moneyball,

"a team with a OBP of 1.000 would get on base every at bat so would score an infinite amount of runs each inning since none of the batters ever make an out. A team with a SLG of 1.000 would likely score less. Two outs, followed by a homerun and another out would score only one run but would give an SLG of 1.000."

So OBP is more important than SLG, both are better the batting average and OPS combines them for a rough measure of a hitters value.
The league leader in OPS is usually a bit over 1.000
Great hitters are in the .900s.
Good ones in the .800s
Mediocre .700s
Bad "you better be amazing defensively" in .600s
Awful "you don't belong near the majors" under .600

OPS+: like OPS but better, OPS+ is adjusted to take into account different stadiums which have different effects on offensive production. An OPS of 100 is exactly average, 110 is 10% better than average, 90 is 10% below average. A more complete measure of a players offense on an easier to understand scale.

VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. Like OPS+ in that it values a hitters offensive production but it takes into account a players position, but not defense at that position, a great defensive SS is the same as hide-your-eyes bad SS. The number given is how many more runs a player produced for their team more than the team would get calling up the average AAA player at that position. A catcher, shortstop, or pitcher that hits well is more valuable than a first baseman, left fielder or DH because it's harder to find players to can play that position and hit well.

Top Pick Contracts are Insane

2008-06-07T11:14:00.000-07:00

Darren McFadden signs with the Raiders, 6 years 60million 22 million guaranteed. That puts the top 4 picks' contracts at

Jake Long 5 years, 57.5 million, 30 million guaranteed

Chris Long-Unsigned

Matt Ryan- 6 years, 72 million, 34.75 million guaranteed

Darren McFadden- 6 years, 60 million, 22 million guaranteed

Jake Long gets a bigger contract the Orlando Pace (7 years, 52.9 million), Jonathan Ogden (5 years 50 mil) and Walter Jones (7 years, 52.5 million)

Chris Long will get more than Ryan did putting him over Dwight Freeney, formerly the highest paid defender in NFL history (6 years 72 million) and possibly over Jared Allen the new highest paid defender (6 years 72.36 million)

Matt Ryan gets more than every QB not named Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.

McFadden will make more per year than LaDainian Tomlinson (8 years 60 million)

Insane

My favorite team has a GM who doesn't miss on first round picks and finds cheap talent in the late rounds, so the owners can drag their feet as much as they like on this without bothering me, but those massive deals for guys that haven't proven a thing in the NFL are hurting the league.

Playoffs and draft order predictions

2008-06-01T13:16:00.000-07:00

Records predicted with the method described here

My predicted AFC playoff field:
1. Colts 14-2
2. Patriots 13-3
3. Chargers 12-4
4. Steelers 10-6
5. Jaguars 10-6
6. Texans 8-8

My NFC field
1. Packers 11-5
2. Cowboys 11-5
3. Giants 11-5
4. Eagles 10-6
5. Seahawks 10-6
6. Bucs 9-7

The 2009 draft (ties broken by unrounded record then NFL's tiebreakers)
1. Raiders 3-13 2. Ravens 4-12
3. Dolphins 4-12
4. Cardinals 4-12
5. Lions 5-11 (strength of schedule 137-119)
6. 49ers 5-11 (SOS 120-136)
7. Bears 6-10 (SOS 139-117)
8. Falcons 6-10 (SOS 128-128)
9. Cheifs 6-10
10. Browns 6-10
11. Rams 7-9
12. Jets 7-9
13. Titans 7-9 (SOS 136-120)14. Bengals 7-9 (SOS 126-130)
15. Broncos 7-9 (SOS 120-136)
16. Bills 7-9
17. Panthers 8-8
18. Saints 8-8
19. Redskins 8-8
20. Texans (if they don't win the AFC)
21. Vikings 10-6
[Remaining Playoff Teams]

NFC Record Predictions

2008-06-01T11:06:00.000-07:00

The AFC is the conference of extremes with the 3 elite teams (Colts, Pats, Chargers) and the bottom of the barrel (Raiders, Ravens, Dolphins), The NFC is more balanced (or I'm less familiar with the NFC so I have less high confidence predictions which bunches the records together).

With the method I described here I have finished my preseason predictions for the NFC in 2008.
Here they are in reverse order-

16. Cardinals 5-11
15. (tie) 49ers 5-11
15. (tie) Lions 5-11
13. (tie) Bears 6-10
13. (tie) Falcons 6-10
11. Rams 7-9
10. Panthers 8-8
9. Saints 8-8
8. Redskins 8-8
7. Bucs 9-7 (make playoffs as NFC South Champ)
6. Vikings 10-6 (miss playoffs)
5. Seahawks 10-6
4. Eagles 11-5
3. Giants 11-5
2. Cowboys 11-5
1. Packers 11-5

(ties broken by unrounded records, then NFL tiebreakers for playoff teams)

Playoffs and draft order tonight/tommorow

AFC Record Predictions

2008-06-01T10:28:00.000-07:00

With the method I described here I have finished my preseason predictions for the AFC in 2008.
Here they are in reverse order-
16. Raiders 3-13
15. Ravens 4-12
14. Dolphins 4-12
13. Chiefs 6-10
12. Browns 6-10
11. Jets 7-9
10. (Tie) Bengals 7-9
10. (Tie) Titans 7-9
10. (Tie)Broncos 7-9
7. Bills 7-9
6. Texans 8-8
5. Steelers 10-6
4. Jaguars 10-6
3. Chargers 12-4
2. Patriots 13-3
1. Colts 14-2

NFC is done.

Picking Records

2008-05-29T13:47:00.000-07:00

After the schedules come out there's always a flurry of win-loss predictions based on picking the winners of each individual game. I've always thought that was kind of dumb and subjective, even before you take into account how hard it is to now how well teams will play. Some games are obvious and would be a stunning upset others are difficult, could go either way and in my case at least are often decided in the interest making the final records turn out the way I expect them to. So last year I tried to use a method that was less dumb (but at least as if not more subjective). I ranked each game on a 1 to 7 scale:

1-I'm sure the visiting team will win
2-Visiting team probably wins
3-Leaning towards visiting team
4-No Idea
5-Leaning home
6-Probably home
7-Home wins

The games where I picked a winner I went 131-90 (59.3%) not bad, but I did pass on 25 of the hardest games to pick by giving them a 4.

To get records I averaged the my expected outcome certainty (separately for home and way since they would be opposites) and multiplied by 1.25 to get the records to fit a realistic spread, giving games above/below .500. Rounded a bit to get the records in whole games and got these:
(Exactly right, 1-2 win off, 3-4 off, 5-6 off, 7+ off)

Chargers 14-2 (3)
Colts 13-3 (0)
Patriots 12-4 (4)
Bears 12-4 (5)
Ravens 11-5 (6)
Bengals 11-5 (4)
Saints 11-5 (4)
Cowboys 11-5 (2)
Broncos 11-5 (4)
Jets 10-6 (6)
49ers 10-6 (5)
Eagles 10-6 (2)
Steelers 10-6 (0)
Jags 9-7 (2)
Giants 8-8 (2)
Rams 8-8 (5)
Seahawks 8-8 (2)
Chiefs 7-9 (3)
Panthers 7-9 (0)
Falcons 7-9 (3)
Packers 6-10 (7)
Titans 6-10 (4)
Bucs 5-11 (4)
Lions 5-11 (2)
Texans 5-11 (3)
Dolphins 5-11 (4)
Redskins 5-11 (4)
Vikings 5-11 (3)
Bills 4-12 (3)
Browns 4-12 (6)
Raiders 3-13 (1)
Cardinals 3-13 (5)

I was off by an average of 3.4 games. I didn't expect the Packers and Browns to be good, the Ravens, Bears and Jets to be bad and for some reason didn't expect the Cardinals, Rams and Niners (10-6 what was I smoking) to be mediocre. I know my Colts and apparently the Panthers, Steelers and Raiders pretty well.

The Pats and Dolphins fell outside what I thought was a reasonable spread for records, but neither of those is normal. So I'm going to leave the method the same. Starting work on predictions for the upcoming season right now, they should be up during the weekend.

(If anyone out there is interested in giving it a try e-mail me and I can send you the blank spread sheet that calculates the records from the 1-7 rankings or you could make your own system).

Awesome

2008-05-22T23:04:00.000-07:00

The hit counter on this site tells when someone reaches my blog through a link and where the link was from (usually it's my SB Nation profile or a link from Big Blue Shoe at Stampede Blue), but I randomly checked it today for the first time in weeks and found something that made my day.

Someone found their way to my blog by typing a search into Google consisting of "Skip Bayless is a tool". I don't think I've felt more proud about what I'm doing blogging than I do right now. He is a tool, I wrote about a particular incident where he was a tool and people found it, read it, and said "yeah he's a tool."

2008 QB Cap numbers

2008-05-21T21:05:00.000-07:00

Something I got curious about and dug up everything I could find.

Peyton Manning 18.7 Million
Tom Brady 14.6 Million
Carson Palmer 14.0mil
Donovan McNabb 9.40mil
Chad Pennington 9.00mil
Ben Roeslesberger 5.75mil (before his new contract I think)
Matt Schaub 5.75mil
Kurt Warner 5.00mil
Matt Leinart 4.58mil
Rex Grossman 4.5mil
Jason Campbell 4.08mil
McCown (MIA) 3.25mil
J.P. Losman 3.01mil
Aaron Rodgers 1.73mil
Kellen Clemens $847,500John Beck $844,500

PatsCap has links to a ton of sites with cap info, but not all are still up or well updated.

And I thought a Julius Jones jersey was bad

2008-05-17T22:24:00.001-07:00

Saw a guy at work today rocking one of these:

Awesome

How long before the rookie help the Pats?

2008-05-10T09:00:00.001-07:00

The Patriots spent all but one of their picks in the 2008 draft on defenders, but how long before this influx of youth brings young starters to an old D. Here's a breakdown of the Patriots starters last season and how long it took them to become starters.

06/07 no defensive starters, Meriweather (round 1) the only defender from those drafts on the roster.

2005
Ellis Hobbs (3rd round), full time starter in his 3rd season, Games started by year- 8,9,16
James Sanders (4th), starter 3rd year, GS-2,5,15

2004
Vince Wilfork (1st), starter 2nd year, GS-6,16,13,16

2003
Ty Warren (1st), starter 2nd year, GS-4,16,16,15,16
Eugene Wilson (2nd) starter 1st year (lost starting job in 2007), GS-15,14,16,4,6
Asante Samuel (4th) starter 3rd year, GS-1,8,15,15,14

2002
Jarvis Green (4th), 6th season, GS-4,7,1,5,4,10

2001
Richard Seynore (top 10), 1st season, GS-10,16......

2000-1997
No defenders currently on roster drafted

1996
Tedy Bruschi, 4th season, GS-0,1,7,14,16....

Picks by other teams
Rosevelt Colvin signed by Patriots after 4th season in the league. Became a Pats starter in 3rd year on team/7th in league.

Mike Vrabel signed after 4th season. Started in 1st season with Patriots/5th in league

The only current defenders to start for the Patriots as rookies were a 6th overall pick and a safety who later lost his starting job. None of the current LBs were starters before their 4th year in the league and Colvin needed two years of experience in the Pats system in addition to 4 with the Bears before he became a starter. D-linemen find there way into the lineup the fastest with Seymore starting as a rookie and Vilfork and Warren starting in their second year. 3 of the 4 starting DBs drafted by the Pats started in their 3rd season. LBs took the longest with none of the starters seeing the majority of starting time before they had been in the league for 3 or more years.

The Patriots' future on D might have been improved, but it will like take 3-4 years before this draft has any real effect to make the Pats D younger. Mayo is a fantastic player, but the demands of Belichick's defense will likely keep him on the bench for one, two or maybe up to three years. Wheatley might be able to work his way onto the field in a secondary depleted by free agency, but he'll likely follow the path of Hobbs and Samuel before him and spend 2 years learning before he's ready. Crable is an even surer bet to take years to be ready to play LB since early round picks made their way into the Pats lineup faster (really?, who'd have guessed that). The Pats have found DBs in the 4th round so Wilhite may contribute eventually. After the fourth round the majority of Pats draft picks especially on defense are cut and disappear off the map or spend their careers on the bench.

Jerseys (AFC edition)

2008-05-07T14:49:00.000-07:00

The other day I saw a guy walking around in a #21 Cowboys jersey and the first thing I thought was, "why would anyone want a Julius Jones jersey? He wasn't even the best runningback on his the team when he was with the Cowboys. Marion Barber is obviously the best choice for a Cowboys jersey. Julius Jones isn't even on the team now. Why would you still wear it?"

Marion Barber being an easy choice for which Cowboys jersey I would wear if I was forced to wear one, I started thinking about more teams and which jerseys I'd want the least.

Colts-Bob Sanders, hands down. The only Colts jersey I've ever since worn in Iowa. Since all the Colts fans with jerseys in my town picked Sanders I almost want to go with Clark, but Bob is just too awesome.

Runners up (in order) Clark, Harrison (pending whether he shot someone for reasons other than self-defense), Manning

Least wanted jersey, Cato June. If Aaron Moorehead, Charlie Johnson or Gilbert Gardner replica jersey existed they'd all beat out June, but June is one of the few Colts I've disliked at any point in there time with the team and has moved on to Tampa

Titans-Chris Johnson, obviously. Not sure how I'll handle him playing the Colts. My man-crush was based on the Colts getting him, so the passion's nearly gone now, but I'm still excited to see him play.

Least, Vince Young. A VY jersey is just begging someone like me to just tear into Young and start an argument. Which the jersey wearer will lose because Young isn't very good.

Jaguars-Maurice Jones Drew. Gotta like one of the handful of NFL players that are shorter than me, even if it's only by fractions of an inch.

Least-Marcus Stroud, suspended for steroids and then traded away.

Texans-Andre Johnson. The lone bright spot on their offense. Mario Williams would be a good choice as well since after the pick was bashed everywhere he's outperforming all the guys suggested as better #1 overall picks.

Least-Ahmad Green. Big free agent signing, who everyone said was washed up. Turns out they were right. Washed Up.

Bills-Jason Peters, Late rounder to star LT

least-JP Losman, when a veteran gets outplayed by a rookie, especially a guy who barely made it into the first day of the draft they suck.

Dolphins-Jake Long, It's about hope when you root for a 1-15 team.

Least-Joey Porter, loud-mouthed, overrated, overpaid

Jets-Leon Washington. A great kick returner who was overshadowed by entering the league at the same time as Hester and Cribbs.

Least-Jonathan Vilma. Square pegs being forced into round holes is frustrating.

Patriots-Since they don't make Tim Dwight replicas, none, I refuse.

Least, Brady

Browns-Josh Cribbs, nearly as good as Hester as a returner without the fumbles and painful levels of stupid.

least-Brady Quinn, no idea why I hated him (pre-crotch grabbing/slur tossing) but I do know that hating him is fun and easy now.

Steelers-Roethlesberger. That awful season following his motorcycle got the writers off of his groin region enough for me to appreciate his skills.

least-any lineman (Faneca didn't suck but left the team so he makes the list)
If I have to pick just one it's Willie Parker. He hurts the Steelers more with his busts than he helps with his booms.

Ravens-Jonathan Ogden, can't go wrong with a HOF LT. Even if Freeney does own him.

Least-Ray Lewis, sailing on reputation for years. He's an average linebacker at this point in his career, but still gets the most credit for the hugely talented D he plays on.

Bengals-Carson Palmer, there aren't enough good QBs in the league.

Least-Chad Johnson. He when from entertaining to a locker room cancer pretty fast.

Chargers-Marmalard, don't know who that is, Then "Ya betta ask somebodddaaaaaaaaayyyyyy!"

least-Phillip Rivers. What a douche.

Raiders- Can I has Tim Dwight Jersey?
No?
Ok, Nnamdi Asomugha. The best defensive player that doesn't get the hype he deserves.

Least- Moss, how do you get an awful deal when the team you're trading with is desperate to dump the guy.

Broncos- Brandon Stokley. He was actually a solid #2 last year. It's very weird to see him in another jersey, but I still like the guy.

Least- Travis Henry, wearing that jersey is a statement and not a good one.

Cheifs- Tony Gonzalez, sad that an amazing player like him is stuck through his final years on a rebuilding team.

Least- Larry Johnson, the Herm Edward has ridden him into the ground he'll never be the same back again. 400+ carries is pretty much a death sentence for a RB.

The All-rookies-I-like team

2008-05-01T12:35:00.000-07:00

In the leadup to the draft there are a lot of players that you really fall in love with. You know the chances of that individual player being taken by your team aren't great, but hopefully they'll grab a few guys you like. I followed a lot of players this year, so many that I'm going to continue my roster building with a full team of them. To be eligible a player must be a rookie and be drafted outside the top 20 (because just about everyone likes the top guys).

The format is:

Name, School, NFL team, round(pick#)
Comments

QB
Brian Brohm, Louisville, Packers, 2(56)
Brohm was the 3rd QB taken, but will be better than Matt "I'm so clutch except when I'm throwing almost 2 picks a game" Ryan, and Joe "Can throw a football threw the goalpost from my knees at midfield, but can't read a defense" Flacco.

Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State, Patriots, 3(94)
He was supposed to be a sleeper, but New England's "reach for everyone we like" draft strategy killed that.

Bernard Morris, Marshall, Unsigned, Undrafted
The man I hoped would be trying to knock the clipboard from Jim Sorgi's hands.

HB
Chris Johnson, East Carolina, Titans, 1(25)
If you don't think I made the cutoff at top 20 because top 24 would be too awkward and transparent you haven't been reading my posts long enough.

Matt Forte, Tulane, Bears, 2(44)
I really thought the Colts were getting Forte. Big Blue Shoe tried to warn me that the Bears loved him, but I assumed they would address the QB, WR and OL spots before replacing mega-bust Cedric Benson.

Mike Hart, Michigan, Colts, 6(202)
The third and final back that I thought would be there in the 2nd and be a fit for the Colts. I was more than ready to settle for Hart in the 3rd-4th round if the unthinkable happened and both Johnson and Forte were gone at #59

FB
Jacob Hester, LSU, Chargers, 3(69)
A versatile HB/FB combo who can block, catch and carry the ball. If the Colts didn't get Forte who blocks like a fullback, they could draft a real fullback who fits their scheme.

TE
Brad Cottam, Tennessee, Cheifs, 3(76)
Gigantic, an in-line blocker with solid hands and decent speed. Cottam would be a Utecht upgrade at best or replica at worst.

Jacob Tamme, Kentucky, Colts, 4(127)
Awesome hands, great speed, good routes, but not a blocker.

Joey Haynos, Maryland, Packers, Undrafted
Another Utecht replacement who could be had in the late rounds. A good blocker with solid hands, speed and route running.

WR
Earl Bennet, Vanderbilt, Bears, 3(70)
A guy that really came on strong and was one of two guys I wanted the Colts to take when their first pick finally came up. Great route running and hands. Not an eye-popping spectacular athlete but good across the board. Compared to Marvin Harrison.

Andre Caldwell, Florida, Bengals, 3(97)
Elite speed + good routes = Dangerous Receiver His hands had question marks, but it's thought to be lapses in concentration on easy passes instead of lack of ability that hurt him.

Keenan Burton, Kentucky, Rams, 4(128)

Arman Shields, Richmond, Raiders, 4(125)
Another potential sleeper that was jumped on by a team that liked him as much as I do. A great athlete who worked short routes very well, but struggled on deep routes mostly negating the advantage of his blazing speed.

Pierre Garcon, Mount Union, Colts 6(205)
Wasn't on my radar before the Colts drafted him, but I like what I found reading up following the pick. Dominated his competition at the DIII level. Could take over return duties for the Colts this season.

OL
Chad Rinehart, Northern Iowa, Redskins, 3(96)
An outstanding left tackle at the 1-AA level for UNI, Rinehart has the physical talent to remain
at left tackle. He's making a big jump, but could develop into a starting LT or a great option at RT/Guard.

Kory Lichensteiger, Bowling Green, Broncos, 4(104)
I knew the Colts would look to take a C/G type guy, I just didn't expect it in the second round. Lichtensteiger is a smart, versatile, athletic lineman.

Mike Pollak, Arizona State, Colts, 2(59)
Smart, athletic and versatile, just like all the other guys the Colts like. Pollak was rated the top center by many and top 2-3 by all.

Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers, Bucs, 3(83)
Very athletic in addition to being smart and versatile. Zuttah maybe be able to play tackle at the pro level.

John Greco, Toledo, Rams, 3(65)
I wanted a tackle to take over as the primary backup, insuring Charlie Johnson never played tackle in a meaningful game again. Greco was the right type of lineman (smart, athletic) in the right part of the draft (second day).

Doug Legursky, Marshall, Steelers, Undrafted
The Colts were one of a few teams that had scouts at Marshall's pro-day and Legursky is the type of lineman they like.

Thaddeus Coleman, Mississippi Valley State, Cardinals, Undrafted
A massive, aggressive (too often to a fault) blocker. Coleman isn't a phenomenal athlete but is athletic enough to play left tackle. He will need good technique since he doesn't have athleticism to spare playing LT. Could be a absolute force run blocking at RT. Needs to take it down a notch and stop drawing flags and starting fights with his over-aggressiveness.

DE
Quentin Groves, Auburn, Jaguars, 2(52)

Cliff Avril, Purdue, Lions, 3(92)

Marcus Howard, Georgia, 5(161)

Rudolph Hardie, Howard, Unsigned ,Undrafted

Titus Brown, Mississippi State, Dolphins, Undrafted

DT
Trevor Laws, Notre Dame, Eagles, 2(47)

Jason Jones, Eastern Michigan, Titans 2(54)

Carlton Powell, Virgina Tech, Broncos, 5(148)

Frank Okam, Texas, Texans, 5(151)

LB
Xavier Adibi, Virgina Tech, Texans, 4(118)

Phillip Wheeler, Georgia Tech, Colts, 3(93)

Geno Hayes, Florida State, Bucs, 4(175)

Ali Highsmith, LSU, Cardinals, Undrafted

Wesley Woodyard, Kentucky, Broncos, Undrafted

Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Boston College, Unsigned, Undrafted

Erin Henderson, Maryland, Vikings, Undrafted

DB
Antonie Cason, Arizona, Chargers, 1(27)

Brandon Flowers, Virgina Tech, Chiefs, 2(35)

Jack Williams, Kent State, Broncos, 4(119)

Charles Godfrey, Iowa, Panthers, 3(67)

Craig Sletz, LSU, Bears, 4(120)

Corey Lynch, Appalachian State, Bengals, 6(177)

Jamie Silva, Boston College, Colts, Undrafted

Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee, Bucs, Undrafted

K/P/LS
The Colts are set there so didn't look at any pre-draft. I'll go with the 1st kicker, only punter and only long snapper drafted.

Taylor Mehlhaff, Wisconsin, Saints, 6(178)
Kicker

Durant Brooks, Georgia Tech, Redskins, 6(168)
Punter

Tyler Schmitt, San Diego State, Seahawks, 6(189)
Long Snapper

According to the standard NFL pick value chart, for the cost of Jake Long and a mid-5th round pick a team could have the entire starting O (starting 11 without the situational players.

Instead of Chris Long and Jordan Dizon (pick #45 OLB) A team could trade back and draft the entire starting defense of my all-rookies-I-like team.

"Comments on the defense and the last few (4) roster spots are coming on the weekend."
Yeah, forget about that part. Talking about all the players the Colts didn't get makes me sad.

Your 2008 Indianapolis Colts

2008-04-29T20:21:00.000-07:00

Here is my best and most optimistic guess of how the Colts roster will look on opening day, with a thought or two on each player. I'm projecting several veteran and undrafted rookie free agent signings.

QB-
Peyton Manning- The man, the myth, the legend, best QB in the NFL, The Colts wouldn't be what they are without #18.

Jim Sorgi-Hate him or feel somewhat confidant he's qualified to hold a clipboard all season, Sorgi looks to be the Colts backup for at the least one more season.

RB-
Joseph Addai- The lead head of what I hope will be a three headed Colts run game. Addai has his strengths in all the things that matter most for a Colts RB and his weaknesses in those that matter least.

Dominic Rhodes- Rhodes has never been a great runner, but he catches the ball, blocks and doesn't fumble. The definition of a solid backup.

Mike Hart- The rookie with the potential to be great. In college he was a hugely productive runner, never fumbled, pass blocked with effort and without fear and caught the ball well on screens and short routes. The not fumbling is a sure thing to translate to the pros. The others not as much. His size raises questions in his running and blocking ability and he will asked to do more in the receiving game in Indy. Whether he can stay productive will decide whether he's a draft steal or another great college player whose game doesn't work at the highest level.

TE-
Dallas Clark- Clark has wide receiver quickness and route running with tight end size and hands. The Colts gave him a long term extension that insures that he will frustrate opposing defenses and occasionally Colts fans for a long time.

Tom Santi- a.k.a. Ben Utecht 2.0, did they fix the fumble bug in the previous model? As long as they kept the blocking and catching up to the old levels he'll do fine.

Jacob Tamme- Compared to Clark constantly, with him the Colts give up some blocking in exchange for better hands.

WR-
Marvin Harrison- If the best receiver in NFL history not named Jerry Rice is healthy then the Colts are a much better team. He's nearing the end of the road, but if the knee heals he could still stick around for a long time.

Reggie Wayne-Wayne has stepped out of Marvin's shadow and if he hasn't overtaken him already he will soon. Wayne is a top 5 WR in the league as shown by his huge production without Marvin on the other side of him.

Anthony Gonzalez- Gonzo stepped up huge last year and will excel this season in the 3rd WR role he was drafted to play.

Roy Hall- Should be recovered from a nasty special teams collision that ended his season and unfortunately the other players career. Hall will be a special teams beast, putting his freakish athleticism to work while he continue learning the Colts offense.

Pierre Garcon- Garcon will compete with TJ Rushing for return duties and for the last receiver spot with Devin Aromashodu and several undrafted WRs. By the sixth round every D1 player remaining is a guy who has been outplayed and overmatched by some opposing players. He wasn't the best at his level so why would he be better at a higher level. Garcon demolished his competition at the DIII level. He'll be making a huge leap, but there's something to be said for a player who you have never seen outplayed.

OL-
LT Tony Ugoh- A force in the running game, Ugoh can blow up a D-end and take on a linebacker or safety before Addai catches up. He needs to improve his pass protection, but he wasn't bad as a rookie and showed improvement throughout the year.

LG Ryan Lilja- Another recently resigned Colt. Lilja is a good starter and young. He will be around playing well for a while.

OC Jeff Saturday- The oldest, but best man on the line. He's still the top center in the game. The Colts seem to have a succession plan in place, but Saturday should be kept in Indy beyond the year left on his contract. Center, like QB, requires intellegence, experience and technique more than physical ability, so Saturday's decline should be slow.

RG Dylan Gandy-Gandy has spent two years backing up the entire middle of the Colts line. He's now ready to step into the starting lineup, then likely cash in elsewhere when his one year RFA tender expires.

RT Ryan Diem- Diem is strong in run blocking and usually good at stopping the pass rush. He'll get beaten by the ocassional speed rush, but he's a right tackle, that happens. Diem is still very good, but a replacement should be on the front offices mind in the coming years as Diem ages.

OT Dan Federkiel- Last season Federkiel got injured and landed on IR just as he was finally needed. He never got a chance to show what he can do. He may not be a capable left tackle, but we do know the other backup tackle on the roster isn't.

OT/OG Charlie Johnson- I don't understand Johnson's struggles with speed rushers. Usually tackles can't handle the outside rush because they lack the athleticism to move with a speedy DE. Johnson started his college career as a tight end and has the 5 catches for 57 yards and two rushing yards to prove it. The Colts even used him as a tackle eligible at the goal line his rookie season and threw him a pass in the endzone (he dropped it).

OG/OC-Mike Pollak- The second round pick from ASU has a shot at the starting RG spot, but Gandy has three years in the Colts system and has been blocked in by estabilished starters the last two. Pollak will move into the starting lineup soon enough and provide quality depth in the meantime.

OG/OC David Justice- Justice will have to wait longer to find his spot in the lineup. He may be the heir to the Colts center position, but it's a bit early to count on that since he hasn't even put on a Colts jersey yet.

OL- Jamie Richards- I've heard talk he could play anywhere on the line. That kind of versatility would be a huge factor in him making the roster.

DL
RE- Dwight Freeney Freeney is constantly criticized for his run defense, so much so that I think he's become the opposite of the overrated, underrated guy. The guy that's been called underrated so much that everyone thinks he underrated, but is still called underrated until he becomes overrated. Freeney is the opposite of that guy. You mention Freeney to any casual to hardcore NFL fan and they'll tell you, "great pass rusher, bad run D." They might even call him overrated. It's been drilled into everyones head so well that it goes beyond the level that's correct. He's not a great run stopper, but the Colts don't foucs on stopping the run and Freeney does do a good job of holding up at the point of attack when he's asked to stay there, instead of rushing upfield. When he does shoot around the outside he not only applies pressure and draws blocks like few DEs in the game he completely shuts down outside runs to his side. OT struggle to keep Freeney out of the pocket, they aren't going to be able to come and get him on the outside. Freeney's been called overrated so many times that he's not overrated anymore. He is appropriately rated at worst and I feel his pretty strongly underrated to the NFL fan.

NT-Ed Johnson Solid is the word for Johnson. The Colts can be very good will him, but his starting position is the one that the Colts could find an upgrade the easiest. Johnson doesn't penetrate as well as the Tampa-2 design would hope.

UT-Raheem Brock Brock was really growing into the undertackle spot in the defense before his injury. He's bulked up and lost the speed to be a pass rushing DE, but retained the quickness to be disruptive in the middle.

LE-Robert Mathis Mathis was a great pass rush specialist and is a effective starter. With the influx of pass rushers behind him Mathis could move to more of a part time role that combines the value of using him in more than obvious passing downs, but keeps him from being gassed in the 4th quarter when he's needed the most.

DE-Marcus Howard The undersized speed rusher we all fell in loved with before the draft. Howard will spell Mathis and Freeney and help keep up the pressure.

DE-Rosevelt Colvin I have a confession to make. Not only would I welcome former patriot Rosevelt Colvin with open arms, I have rooted for a player while he was still a member of New England's NFL franchise. Tim Dwight the only graduate of my high school and one of only two players from my hometown currently in the NFL, was a member of the pats for a year. I rooted for him while he was. I have hoped on several occasions that Tom Brady threw a TD pass (only to Dwight. As soon as he left the game I hoped for a pick).

DE-Josh Thomas- The big run stopping DE, Thomas was extended for another year of backup work. He'll be phased out by the youth movement on the DL, but he's a useful player for now.

DT-Quinn Pitcock- Another solid nosetackle. He'll continue as Ed Johnson's backup holding down the middle as the big DT.

DL-Kenunta Dawson- Dawson has been great as a versatile lineman, subbing in all along the line. Hopefully his pass rushing moves continue to improve. He's one of the few linemen on the roster last year with the athletic ability to be a pass rusher threat.

DL-Darrel Reid- Special team ace, D-line depth. I think the Titans drafted Chris Johnson because they couldn't scrape last years 1st round RB Chris Henry off the RCA Dome turf.

DL-Rudolph Hardie
Unsigned last time I checked. Hardie could be Josh Thomas with pass rushing ability, with an outside shot at being the future at LE.

LB
WLB-Freddy Keiaho Brokeout huge last year, now it's time for two seasons of awesome LB play before he goes somewhere else to get paid.

MLB-Gary Brackett Brackett raised his game last season and deserved a pro bowl selection for it. He's the perfect fit in the middle of the Tampa-2 and will be leading the Colts defense for years to come.

SLB-Tyjuan Hagler The Colts extended Hagler's contract for a year and laid down 1.4 million to do it. That's a pretty strong vote of confidence coming from the Colts front office. Hagler will have a year to prove he deserves to get paid, it may not be by the Colts though.

LB-Clint Sessions Sessions stepped in as a rookie and made plays. Sessions is likely the future at one of the LB spots with Hagler in a contract year, Keiaho with two remaining and Brackett one of the oldest on the defense.

LB-Phillip Wheeler Wheeler could be moved to DE, but linebacker is a thinner position and where he's played in college. Plays very fast, despite what his combine numbers suggest. He'll spend a year or two on special teams while he refines his play recognition and zone coverage skills.

LB-Ramon Guzman A solid special teamer and depth to fill out the LB position. Guzman absolutely destroying a punt returner who made the wrong choice of whether to fair catch in preseason still sticks in my memory.

DB
DPOY-Bob Sanders Sanders is the man. I love him. He finally stayed healthy last season and the result was him being rightly recognized as the best defender in the league.

SS-Antoine Bethea A sixth rounder who became a pro bowler. Where did we hear that all draft long? But did Tom Brady win the starting job as a rookie in training camp? Bethea>Brady.

CB-Marlin Jackson It really says something when one of the worst 1st round picks the Colts have made under Polian is the #1 CB on one of the leagues top defenses.

CB-Kelvin Hayden Big, Physical corners are awesome. Hayden brings the big hit just like all the Colts DBs. His INT return the the superbowl was the most exciting moment I've ever had watching football.

NB-Dante Hughes Hughes looked ready to overtake Jennings as the nickelback late last year before injury sidelined him. Hopefully he'll win the spot before the opener.

CB-Tim Jennings The fast Colts CB, but out of position so much it doesn't matter. If I could ask Tony Dungy one question it would be why he was one-on-one with Randy Moss most of the pats game. He has the potential to be a great all around corner, but he'll need to show serious improvement.

CB-Micheal Coe
Another talented CB who fell to the Colts because he isn't a world class sprinter. He's good depth and will contribute in the future.

CB-TJ Rushing Very good on punt returns, ok taking back kickoffs, useful as a 4th CB. A wise use of a 7th round pick.

S-Matt Giordano Despite what Madden tries to tell you Giordano is blazing fast. The Madden creators giving Giordano below average speed is the most blatant racism I've ever seen in a video game.

S-Jamie Silva Can he play special teams well? Ok he's on the roster.

K
Adam Vinatieri The rumor was he was hurt most of last year. I hope it was true and that his playoff performance is the Vinitieri the Colts will be paying the big bucks for.

P
Hunter Smith Hunter the punter got on the fans bad side, but I still blame the coverage unit and coach more than him.

LS-Justin Snow I forgot him the first time through but that's how it is with a good longsnapper. If he does his job right nobody notices him.

Practice squad

FB Luke Lawton The Colts don't have a true fullback but most other teams do, which is why they keep one on the practice squad.

HB Kenton Keith Keith ran the ball extremely well last season, so another team should be quick to pick him up if he's cut but there's a lot of things other teams should do, but don't.

WR Devin Aromashado Not the kind of player you want on the field for large chunks of a playoff game, but he's not Aaron Moorehead either.

QB Josh Betts I got the idea into my head somehow that Betts isn't eligible for the practice squad anymore (there's a several year time limit.) I can't find anything to confirm this, so he may be back, but if not some undrafted rookie will begin his tenure as the Colts practice QB.

LB Brandon Acher LB is thin on the roster so they need to keep a few guys in the system in case of injury.

S Brandon Condren solid player, but never saw the field much as a rookie.

OT Micheal Toudouze He was the second best left tackle on the Colts roster last year, but we all know that two good quarters does not a good tackle make.

Stay in shape and by the phone-

TE Bryan Fletcher The odd man out with the addition of the two rookies. Fletcher's been in the system a while. If they do cut him they'll keep tabs on him.

DB Melvin Bullit played well in the few spots I saw him. He outjumped Randy Moss in the endzone, something very few players can say.

DE Jeff Charlston decent against the run, didn't really generate a pass rush.

HB Clifton Dawson didn't impress last season, but he was an undrafted rookie. If Keith is snatched up as soon as he's cut, Dawson is the natural replacement on the practice squad.

OL Mike Elgin Because Polian loves centers and I love Hawkeyes

LB Victor Worsley he's been on the roster and practice squad. If injuries happen he'll be moving up.

Undrafted Free Agents

2008-04-27T15:50:00.000-07:00

Jeff Saturday, Gary Brackett, Ed Johnson, the Colts always find quality football players that weren't considered good enough to draft. Here's my favorites of the guys who were passed over.

Rudolph Hardie DE, Howard
A productive pass rusher with great size. He dropped because he played against lesser competition at Howard.

Titus Brown DE, Miss St
A productive rusher who is undersized and from a non-big name school

Erin Henderson, OLB, Virgina
Serious concerns about Henderson's history of knee injuries scared teams away, despite great talent and production

Ali Highsmith, OLB LSU
Horrible 40 at the combine marked the start of his fall. He plays fast and would be a fit for the Colts.

Bernard Morris QB, Marshall
A QB project. The Colts visited the Marshall pro day.

Wesley Woodyard OLB Kentucky
Another small quick LB that could excel in the cover 2

Dantrell Savage, RB Oklahoma State
Very undersized, but explosive back.

Robert Felton, OG, Arkansas
A powerful run blocker, who helped clear the way for #4 pick Darren McFadden and played alongside Tony Ugoh

Jonathan Hefney, S, Tennessee-Joey Dunbar LB, Boston College
A pair of special teams aces with the skills to play in the cover 2

Joey Haynos TE, Maryland
A big blocking TE, with the hands and route running to be a short to mid range target.

IM me

2008-04-26T20:20:00.000-07:00

Questions, Comments, Cool links to share? Hit me up if you do and see me an AIM. Shake1n1baken. Look forward to hearing from you.

Draft Day thoughts

2008-04-26T19:03:00.000-07:00

1. The sole goal Polian-Dungy Colts is to be the most boring, great team of all-time.
The Mike Pollak pick is another perfect example. He's the top center prospect in the draft and can play guard. Guard is a current need and Center is a future one. Pollak is likely to be a great player for a very long time. During that long span of likely future greatness he will go mostly unnoticed and Polian and Dungy will sit back and laugh knowing that they are one step closer to their goal.

2. The Titans picked Chris Johnson because they wanted me to hate them.
My feelings towards the Titans have ranged between several degrees of apathy in my NFL watching life. Before today I would describe my feelings towards them as being like those for an annoying and slightly incompetent co-worker. You don't like being around them, you have to clean up their mess sometimes, but at least they make you look good in comparison.
Now they picked my favorite Colts target when he doesn't fit their needs at all. There is no other reason for this pick, other than to provoke feelings of hatred that would make them a legitimate rival to the Colts. They can't be a threat to the Colts AFC South dominance, so they'll up the Titans-Colts rivalry by making the Colts fans hate them.

3. Brian Brohm will be a better QB the Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the product of the ESPN hype machine being so eager to crown the next super-amazing-clutch-star-QB that they can't even wait for the guy to play in the NFL before anointing him. They took Matt Ryan, solid draft prospect with a good arm solid experience decent college production and way too many stupid picks, into "Matty Ice" Crunch Time SuperStar. Ryan threw nearly as many picks last season as Brohm did in 3 years as a starter. Brohm changed offenses as a senior and kept his stellar numbers. Completion % predicts QB success better than any other measure. Ryan is totally mediocre. Brohm is the best of this below average class.

Since that pick was as unsexy as it gets

2008-04-26T17:56:00.000-07:00

Tim Tebow's girlfriend:

Some awesome Colts pics

2008-04-25T13:29:00.001-07:00

NES 7 round mock draft with analysis on every pick

2008-04-25T10:59:00.001-07:00

Impressive piece of work. Only one pick that I hate, I think this guy is pretty good.
http://www.newerascouting.com/top_stories/483-final-2008-mock-draft-7-rounds-with-analysis/

59. Indianapolis Colts-Chris Johnson-RB-ECU
In a year where they don’t have a first round pick, the Colts can succeed in a big way if they land a return specialist like Chris Johnson here. Johnson is electric enough to come off the board much earlier, and Indianapolis would get the type of game-changer on special teams
that they have been craving.

Yeeeeeaaaah I love it.

93. Indianapolis Colts-Philip Wheeler-LB-Georgia Tech
The Colts have what appears to be a big mess at linebacker, and if luxury player like Chris
Johnson is the pick in round two, then the Colts definitely need to get a linebacker here in the third. Wheeler can be utilized as an effective blitzer from his linebacker position, and would give the Colts a nice situational guy who should develop into a starter in a couple years.

Booooooooo, WTF are you talking about. The Colts had some injuries but are bringing back all three guys that started most of the season and a backup would was very good as a rookie. They lost Rob Morris who was a veteran stopgap and would have lost his starting job before the end of the year if he hadn't gotten hurt first. Boiman was the other loss at LB and he's a career special teams/backup. They need to add a little depth, but they have consistently found solid LBs in the late rounds.
The Colts don't blitz, the send more than 4 rushers less than any team in the NFL. The Tampa-2 is all about 4 rushing, 7 in coverage. They sent 6+ rushers once every 40 plays in 2006. Unless they're converting Wheeler to a 3rd down end his pass rushing skills will be completely wasted.
Cliff Avril should go in this spot. He's a smaller speed rushing end to backup/spell Freeney and Mathis who wear down against teams that are pass heavy (The Patriots).

127. Indianapolis Colts-Frank Okam-DT-Texas
A bit of an enigma due to his massive size and strength, Frank Okam’s stock has dropped somewhere around this area in the mid to late fourth round. Okam has the potential to be dominant with some time, so the Colts could reap major rewards on this investment over time.

The Colts have solid depth at DT, but if he pans out his quickness could make him a big improvement over Ed Johnson.
I'd rather have John Greco in this spot to prevent Charlie Johnson from being the backup at both tackle spots.

161. Indianapolis Colts-Andrew Crummey-OG-Maryland
The Colts can’t get enough people to protect franchise quarterback Peyton Manning, so another guard here in the sixth round is always a good idea. Crummey looks the part of an NFL backup at the very least, so he should stick around in the league and find a role soon enough.

OL depth is a need, but if Jack Williams drops that far the Colts have to jump on him. He's a perfect tampa two corner and a good special teams player.

196. Indianapolis Colts-Brad Cottam-TE-Tennessee
At this point in the draft, it’s not a bad idea for the Colts to look for a little bit of insurance at tight end in the likely scenario that Dallas Clark has to miss some time. Cottam has great hands and could play a similar role to Clark if he can work his way up the depth chart.

I like it. Cottam has the size and blocking ability to replace Utecht as the Colts blocking/short route TE.

201. Indianapolis Colts-Marcus Henry-WR-Kansas
Even with a short national spotlight, Kansas’ Marcus Henry really hasn’t gotten a fair shake this year heading up to the draft. Henry is a big target who is relatively unproven, but could end up being a surprise for the Colts if they hang on to him.

202. Indianapolis Colts-Jacob Hester-FB-LSU
The tough-nosed Hester would fit well in a Peyton Manning led offense, and the Colts are set to take a fullback at least at some point here in the draft. Hester isn’t the best athlete you’ll find at his position, but his heart and love of the game should fit right in with the Colts.

The Colts could use depth at WR, but FB is a bigger need since they get HB/WR Chris Johnson instead of HB/FB Matt Forte. The empty spot is used for my favorite late round player Rudolph Hardie.

205. Indianapolis Colts-Ricky Santos-QB-New Hampshire
Not that Peyton Manning is being replaced or anything, but the Colts can stand to add another backup passer with this pick. New Hampshire’s Ricky Santos is an extremely intriguing prospect, and he should at the very least benefit from working with a superstar like Peyton Manning for a few years.

I'm not a Sorgi fan, but I'd rather continue to improve the Colts awful special teams with a guy like Corey Lynch.

236. Indianapolis Colts-Kennard Cox-CB-Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s forgotten cornerback is decent value for a team like the Colts who are looking to add depth in their secondary here in the draft’s final round.

Polian loves drafting DBs even when they don't really need them, but If they pick up Jack Williams and Corey Lynch before this pick they are set. Kory Lichtensteiger could be the Colts center of the future and depth across the interior.

My draft from the guys available. (picks I completely agree with the posted draft in bold)
2. Chris Johnson
3. Cliff Avril
4. John Greco
5. Jack Williams
6a. Brad Cottam
6b. Rudolph Hardie
6c. Jacob Hester
6d. Corey Lynch
7. Kory Lichtenstegier

2nd Round Mock (I can't feel my face)

2008-04-24T09:44:00.000-07:00

32. MIA-Brian Brohm
33. STL-Dan Conner
34. ATL-Chad Henne
35. KC-Sam Baker
36. NYJ-Quinton Groves
37. ATL-Justin King
38. BAL-Charles Godfrey
39. SF-Duane Brown
40. NO-Kentwaan Balmer
41. BUF-Brandon Flowers
42. DEN-Earl Bennet
43. CAR-Joe Flacco
44. CHI-Malcom Kelley
45. DET-Ray Rice
46. CIN-Pat Sims
47. MIN-Tyrell Johnson
48. ATL-Tracy Porter
49. PHI-Dre Moore
50. ARI-Antonie Cason
51. WAS-Early Doucet
52. TB-Andre Caldwell
53. PIT-Chilo Rachal
54. TEN-Cliff Avril
55. SEA-Chris Johnson
56. GB-Reggie Smith
57. MIA-Shawn Crable
58. JAX-Chirs Ellis
59. IND-Matt Forte
60. GB-Anthony Collins
61. DAL-Donnie Avery
62. NE-Taravis Gooden
63. NYG-Xavier Adibi

I can't feel my face (warning explicit rap music)

My Mock (1st round + Full Colts)

2008-04-23T18:41:00.000-07:00

I've waited as long as possible to get the latest info to make this mock, but tonight is the last night before the draft where my judgment won't be clouded by sedatives and painkillers (they're ripping a few unnecessary teeth out of my head tomorrow). Here it goes.

1. MIA-Jake Long
2. STL-Chris Long
3. ATL-Glenn Dorsey
4. OAK-Sedrick Ellis
5. KC- Vernon Gholston
6. NYJ-Darren McFadden
7. NE- Brandon Albert
8. BAL-Matt Ryan
9. CIN-Keith Rivers
10. NO-Mike Jenkins
11. BUF-Devin Thomas
12. DEN-Chris Williams
13. CAR-Derrick Harvey
14. CHI-Ryan Clady
15. DET-Rashard Mendenhall
16. ARI-Leodis McKelvin
17. KC-Jeff Otah
18. HOU-Jonathan Stewart
19. PHI-Limas Sweed
20. TB- James Hardy
21. WAS- Philip Merling
22. DAL-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
23. PIT-Calais Campbell
24. TEN-DeSean Jackson
25. SEA-Martellus Bennet
26. JAX-Lawrence Jackson
27. SD-Gosder Cherilus
28. DAL-Felix Jones
29. SF-Jerod Mayo
30. GB-Fred Davis
31. NYG-Kenny Phillips

For the Colts
2. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
3. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
4. Robert Felton, OG, Arkansas
5. Carlton Powell , DT, Virgina Tech
6a. Rudolph Hardie, DE, Howard
6b. Arman Shields, WR, Richmond
6c. Doug Legurski, OC, Marshall
6d. Corey Lynch, S, App. State
7. Bernard Morris, QB Marshall

So there's your winning entries into the Stampede Blue and New Era Scouting mock draft contests.

Todd McShay's 7 round mock

2008-04-23T15:44:00.000-07:00

2. DT-Trevor Laws
3. OG-Chilo Rachal
4. TE-Jermicheal Finley
5. RB-Justin Forsett
6a. WR-Dorien Bryant
6b. LB-Alvin Bowin
6c. DE-Wallace Gilberry
6d. S-Jonathan Hefney
7. DT-Barry Booker
full mock
With Chris Johnson gone before #59 Trevor Laws is my next favorite, so I like that.

3rd round pick on guard is too early for a position where they just need depth. Dylan Gandy has played very well while backing up the entire interior line for the Colts the last two years and Charlie Johnson is competing with him for the spot opened up by Jake Scott going to the Titans. Between the two of them they definitely have a starting quality RG. They just need depth, that is easy found and coached up to NFL caliber by Howard Mudd in the later rounds, especially on the inside.

In the third they miss on Forte, Avril and Greco, three guys I'd love to have in the third and the first two I'd take in the second if Laws was gone. Jack Williams is a perfect fit for a two two corner and could step in soon as the nickelback and replace Hayden if he isn't resigned after the season.

TE isn't a bad pick in the fourth, but they have the chance to both fill their O-line depth need and grab a successor for Jeff Saturday with Kory Lichtensteiger. Mike Hart is also there if they want a replacement for the stone handed Kenton "I don't have to listen to police since I'm a NFL player" Keith.
Marcus Howard falls further than I've ever seen and would be my choice here and maybe even in the third round since I've rarely seen him last this long in a mock.

If the Colts don't go RB earlier, Forsett is a decent pickup in the 5th, but he isn't a great Colts fit. Kellen Davis could fill the Ben Utecht, blocking and dumpoff pass TE role well.

In the sixth, I'd take Robert Felton over Dorien Bryant, Arman Shields instead of Wallace Gilberry and Marshall center Doug Legurski if they don't get Lichtensteiger.

Rudolph Hardie, one of my favorite late round players goes undrafted. I would take him in the sixth if not earlier.

My picks from who McShay has available
2. DT Trevor Laws
3. CB Jack Williams
4. RB Mike Hart (the NES guys have me a bit down on Howard and if the Colts don't get Johnson or Forte, there are many good fits left for them at RB)
5. TE Kellen Davis (Marucs Howard if he was there like in the mock, but he won't be)
6a. OG Robert Felton
6b. WR Arman Shields
6c. DE Rudolph Hardie
6d. OC Doug Legurski
7. DE Titus Brown

Continued Draft Board

2008-04-18T15:01:00.000-07:00

After an impassioned speech by Bill Polian in protest of the rising value of rookie contracts and their franchise crippling effects, the 32 NFL GMs agree to allow time to expire on every pick of the first day of the draft, eliminating all of the picks in the first two rounds. As the draft's first day nears it's end and the Colts come onto the clock for the first time at #59. Polian leaps from his seat, laughing manicically with an index card in hand he reaches NFL commissioner Rodger Goodell at the Podium and hands him the card, as all the other GMs look on in stunned silence. "With the 1st pick in the NFL draft the Indianapolis Colts select..."

Who's name is on the card? Here are my best guesses;
1. Glenn Dorsey (reasoning for first five picks here)
2. Sedrick Ellis
3. Chris Long
4. Vernon Gholston
5. Jake Long

6. Keith Rivers, Phenomenal athlete with great football intelligence and size. Can cover, run stop and showed blitzing ability in limited attempts. Fast enough to run step for step with any TE. Needs a little polish in zone coverage, but has all the tools and solid ability already. Not a big hitter, but rarely misses tackles. Main concern is that he will never be an elite player, just very good for a long time. Keiaho shifts to SLB and Hagler is benched/not resigned once Rivers is ready.

7. Darren McFadden, Fumble and character concerns have me a little down on him. He's best suited for a tandem attack which he will be in with the Colts. Explosive runner with breakway speed to contrast Addai's consistent "low risk, medium reward" run style. McFadden is a receiving threat and solid blocker. His throwing ability makes gadget plays an option, but those aren't a common sight in the Colts offense. Just make sure someone remembers to leave some condoms in his locker.

8. Derrick Harvey, a top speed rusher with ok size, Harvey is compared to Dwight Freeney. He uses speed around the edge to get to the QB with regularity. He gets overpowered too much in the run game, but is improving. Pursues and tackles well. As close to cloning Freeney and sticking him on the left side as you'll find this year.

9. Jonathan Stewart, the top power back of the draft, Stewart is a massive 5'11" 235. Runs through defenders and has no fear of (actually seems to enjoy) contact. No fumble concerns. He showed soft hands on screens, but wasn't used often as a receiver otherwise. Has the tools to be a elite pass blocker, but was rarely asked to block so his ability is mostly unknown. A bit of a risk since his skills in two of the most important Colts RB traits are uncertain. He will

10. Rashard Mendenhall, a power runner with good athleticism. Mendenhall has great hands and is a experienced pass blocker, although he needs to continue improving technique in that area. The history of Big-Ten vs Pac-Ten backs broke the virtual tie. A piece I can't find now that I think was at Pro-Football-Reference.com makes a convincing case that Big Ten RBs are often overrated compared to Pac-10 backs, likely by the conferences opposite pas-run leanings (less pronounced now than traditionally, but still present). This gives the Big Ten runners large yardage totals that wrongly take precedence over running efficiently. (They also make the case for Big Ten QBs and WRs over those of the Pac 10 on the same line of reasoning).

Full Draft Board

2008-04-17T12:49:00.000-07:00

There is a good chance the Colts don't get Chris Johnson, so I'm going to rank some more
players the Colts won't be able to get, but would love to draft. I'm going full on into fantasy land and starting at the top. If I was running the Colt's draft (and you can be happy that they have someone much, much better) here's what my draft board would look like.

1. Glenn Dorsey
Dorsey would be a dominating nose-tackle in the Tampa-2, Matt Miller even compares him to the original dominant Tampa-2 nose-tackle Warren Sapp. Great size with an amazing first step.

Could Be As Good As:Warren Sapp
Exceptional quickness and great short quicks. Dominates in 10-yard and under sprints.

Dorsey would not just replace the pass rushing nose-tackle they lost when McFarland blew out his knee, he would be an improvement. The best DT of the Dungy era by far. The quickness of that line would be unmatched. All four would be in the backfield before the QB could even look up.
Injuries are the only major concern for Dorsey, but he appears to be well healed from the leg injury that hampered up last season.

2. Sedrick Ellis
A little less athletic and disruptive in the passing game than Dorsey, but still an amazing player who will do all the same things, just not quite as good.

3. Chris Long
Bigger than both Freeney and Raheem Brock, and much bigger than Robert Mathis, Long could play both left end and the under tackle spot (in passing situations). He isn't an elite speed rusher, but gets to the QB just fine anyway. Drafting Long would move Robert Mathis back into a backup/3rd down rusher role, which I think is a waste, but some people like.

4. Vernon Gholston
An elite speed rusher with a variety of other moves Gholston rushes the passer better than anyone in the draft. Run defense and consistent focus are his weaknesses. Gholston would initially backup both end spots but if he improves in run defense his size would give up an advantage over Robert Mathis for a starting spot.

5. Jake Long
The likely #1 overall pick falls because tackle is not a pressing need for the Colts. His talent is too great for him to fall any lower. The main knock on him is questions of whether he can handle the left tackle spot in the pros. With Tony Ugoh locked in as the Colts franchise LT, Long can settle into a spot he is sure to dominate at right tackle. Ryan Diem is a good starter, a powerful run blocker and only struggles against the best of the speed rushers, but Long is a class above him. A dominating run blocker with great athleticism (he's a possible Pro LT). He'll seal off Peyton's front side even vs the fastest left ends. Long may start at guard temporarily if he can't immediately unseat Diem. Diem started his career at guard and moved back there when his mobility was limited by injury. No matter who's the guard and who's the tackle a right side of Diem and Long, along with Ugoh, Lilja and Saturday rounding out the line, would be the best in the league.

More Later

I will never forgive TheSportsGuru

2008-04-17T06:23:00.000-07:00

Stealing Chris Johnson from me in the Mocking The Draft fan draft is unforgivable.

Cool Time Killer

2008-04-17T06:16:00.000-07:00

For the football addicts out there. It's a good distraction when all the fumbles in Madden 08
get to me.

Goal Line Blitz

Free to play. There's an option to put down some money to boost your player or create more players, but I'm doing fine without giving them money. I'm currently playing DB for a South American minor league team. Check it out. I like it and it's no investment in money and very little required in time.

Mock Draft Breakdowns

2008-04-05T11:31:00.000-07:00

Here is where the players I expect the Colts to target are predicted to go in the seven latest 3 round mocks on Hail Redskins Mock Draft Database.

Player
OLB Xavier Adibi
3rd/#74/CAR 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#62/NE
3rd/#83/TB 2nd/#63/NYG 2nd/#40/NO

DT Trevor Laws
2nd/#40/NO 2nd/#53/PIT 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#50/ARI
2nd/#36/NYJ 2nd/#55/TEN 3rd/#68/ATL

RB Chris Johnson
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#44/CHI 2nd/#45/DET
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 3rd/#66/KC

DE Cliff Avril
2nd/#54/TEN 2nd/#51/WAS 2nd/#54/TEN 3rd/#86/SEA
3rd/#75/SF 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#58/JAX

RB Matt Forte
3rd/#67/CAR 3rd/#86/SEA 3rd/#76/DET Not in 3 round mock,
2nd/#6o/GB 3rd/#93/IND 3rd/#87/DET

DE Marcus Howard
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#60/GB 3rd/#88/PIT Not in 3 round mock,
Not in 3 round mock, 3rd/#88/DET

TE Martellus Bennet
3rd/#78/NO 3rd/#97/CIN 2nd/#47/MIN 2nd/#55/SEA
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#55/SEA 2nd/56/GB

TE John Carlson
2nd/#62/NE 3nd/#72/BUF 2nd/#60/GB 2nd/#56/GB
3rd/#94/NE 2nd/#57/GB 3rd/#71/BUF

Times available at #59/Times available at #93. Out of 7
Laws 1/0
Johnson 1/0
Avril 3/0
Bennet 3/2
Adibi 5/0
Carlson 5/1
Forte 6/2
Howard 7/3

So this gives a general idea of the availability of these players.

* Some of the pick #s will be off +/- 1 because some mocks count the Patriots forfeited pick in the numbering and some don't

Draft Tek, why hast thou forsaken me

2008-04-04T14:09:00.001-07:00

I write a post pimping them

and in their next sim they piss me off.

They have the Colts passing on Chris Johnson and Cliff Avril to take TE Dustin Keller. Keller is a nice player but not a need like Avril and won't have the impact of Johnson. If the Colts take a TE early to replace Utecht, he has to replace Utecht. Utecht was a blocker first and then a safety valve for dumpoffs. Keller is a receiving TE. He's a bulked up WR. The Colts don't need a TE that duplicates what they already have in Clark and Fletcher. If the Colts are going to stick with a two TE set as the base the other TE must be a blocker or else they might as well put Gonzo in instead of the second TE.

Johnson and Forte both come off the board before the Colts 3rd round pick as does Avril. Because they passed on a RB they then take Kevin Smith in the 3rd passing on Bruce Davis and Marcus Howard who are going within 6 picks. To fill the DE need they reach for Tommy Blake causing them to miss out on Arman Sheilds, Rudolph Hardie and Jacob Tamme (who a now like less after thinking about the problems with the Keller pick).

So to get Keller, they miss on the two ideal backs, don't get one of the targeted pass rushers and can't take the best late round guys. If they are going to take a TE in that situation, take Cottam, at least he's gigantic and a solid blocker. I would hate that pick significantly less.

Hate it, Hate it, Hate it.

Colts Draft by DraftTek.com

2008-04-02T17:46:00.000-07:00

Probably my favorite mock draft site, even more so since they've had the Colts getting Chris Johnson for a solid month now. They simulate the draft by using a program that uses team needs as given by correspondents representing each team and a big board with the top 293 players, as ranked by various draft experts. Each level of team need has a specific priority and amount the team will reach down the big board to fill the need. This gives a full draft simulation that is usually realistic for nearly every team. Check It Out, I love it.
Here's the draft the Colts bring in in their most recent sim:

2. (#59)Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
3. (#93)John Carlson TE Notre Dame
4. (#127)Geno Hayes LB Florida State
5. (#161)Keenan Burton WR Kentucky
6a. (#196) Rupolph Hardie DE Howard
6b. (#201) Matt Spanos C Southern Cal
6c. (#202) Letroy Guion DT Florida State
6d. (#205) Thaddeus Coleman OT Miss Valley St.
7. (#236) Marcus Walker CB Oklahoma

Here's where other potential Colts targets fell

2nd round:
42. (DEN) Trevor Laws DT Norte Dame
46. (CIN) Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech
3rd round:
65. (STL) Cliff Avril OLB/DE Purdue
77. (CIN) Matt Forte RB Tulane
79. (HOU) Marcus Howard OLB/DE Georgia
91. (GB) John Greco OT Toledo
95. (NYG) Bruce Davis OLB/DE UCLA
5th round:
139. (DEN) Doug Legursky C Marshall
140. (KC) Robert Felton OG Arkansas
141. (CAR) Harry Douglas WR Louisville
142. (CHI) Drew Radovich OG Southern Cal
150. (MIN) Kory Lichtensteiger OC Bowling Green
156. (PIT) Arman Shields WR Richmond
6th round:
171. (NYJ) Jacob Tamme TE Kentucky
7th round:
203. (PHI) Jacob Hester FB LSU
239. (KC) Bernard Morris Marshall
Undrafted:
Titus Brown DE Miss State
Jalen Parmele RB Toledo

I (and hopefully the real Colts) would have taken DE Bruce Davis over TE John Carlson in the third. After missing out on Avril and Howard, Davis is the last of that tier of pass rusher. OLB Geno Hayes is a fit in the Colts system, but I'd rather have OG Robert Felton in the late 4th. Jacob Tamme over teammate Keenan Burton in the fifth. In the sixth round Guion the DT has good size and can penetrate, but is raw, inconsistent and missed FSU's bowl game due to an academic violation (failing or skipping out on classes) I don't like him, I'd take Jacob Hester to add a true fullback to the now crowded Colts backfield. Bernard Morris is a far more sexy pick than a no-name CB, I like sexy.

My Draft from players available at Colts pick:
2. RB Chris Johnson
3. DE Bruce Davis
4. OG Robert Felton
5. TE Jacob Tamme
6a. Rudolph Hardie (I really like this guy after reading his profile. Big guy at 270-280, but has speed and sack production, 21.5 in the last two years. Teammate of Bethea's at Howard)
6b. C Matt Spanos
6c. FB Jacob Hester
6d. OT Thaddeus Coleman
7. QB Bernard Morris

Fun with Colts Cap.net

2008-03-31T17:35:00.000-07:00

First of all it's an awesome site that gives you info that isn't around anywhere else. Check it out.

Armed with the amount each player currently under contract with the Colts will count against the 116 million dollar 08 salary cap, I'm going to take a look at where all the money is going, where it's money well spent and the one spot that it's not.

5 Great Values (underpaid players)
Antonie Bethea $462,250
Freddy Keiaho $551,000
Tony Ugoh $786,666
Kelvin Hayden $801,666
Joseph Addai $1,561,750

What do all these players have in common? They were great draft picks made by Bill Polian and are still on their rookie contracts. Bethea has filled in the role of underpaid pro-bowl safety after 2007 DPOY Bob Sanders got his well deserved mega-deal after spending his first four seasons playing for second round draft pick money. Bethea and Hayden's contracts end after the 2008 season making them RFA's if the Colts don't sign them to extensions. Both are vital pieces to the best defense the Colts have had in a very long time. They are big physical DBs that lay the big hit and have cover skills exceeding what is needed for the cover-2. Keiaho and Addai's deals go through 2009 and Ugoh is locked up until 2010.

5 Biggest Money Players (Superstars and paid like it)
Peyton Manning $18.7million
Marvin Harrison $12.0million
Bob Sanders $ 8.2million
Reggie Wayne $ 6.7million
Robert Mathis $ 6.7million

The highest paid defensive player in the NFL is third in cap charge on his own defense and is second on the D-line (third if you count the elephant on the cap below*). Manning deserves every penny and Marvin may have to restructure his deal, but won't actually need to give up any money.

The Free Agent Disaster
Corey Simon $ 6.0million

*=I'm not that good at fat jokes.

Help decide the Colts (mock) pick

2008-03-30T20:52:00.000-07:00

I seriously doubt anyone who reads my blog isn't a regular reader of Stampede Blue (and if you're not, why the hell aren't you? Even if you just love me I post there a lot more than I do here, GO, now) But just in case and because people who read my blog get to have more influence on me than people who don't here it goes;

The Mocking the Draft fan mock draft is tomorrow and I'm making the Colts pick.

So here's a chance to help me with the draft board.

I've got;

Chris Johnson (non-negotiable)
Trevor Laws
Marcus Howard
Cliff Avril

5/6 Matt Forte/Xavier Adibi (not sure which I like better)

Another pass rusher is probably the Colts biggest need so if the subject of my man-crush is taken before my pick I'll choke back my tears long enough to hopefully fill that need with one of the Laws, Howard, Avril trio.

I like Forte, but he has a big skills overlap with Addai. I'd prefer a #2 RB (Chris Johnson) that brings something else to the table instead of just a less explosive, but maybe better blocking version of Addai.

Adibi would be a monster at LB for the Colts. He fits the system and is more talented and polished than most Colts LB picks. LB isn't a big need, but he's someone I'd be glad to settle for.

Anyone want to shuffle the rankings or add on?

Note: The whole reason I do this (blogging) is to talk to people that share my interest in the Colts and the NFL, so speak up if you have anything to say, even if you just agree with me, but especially if you disagree with anything. This goes for everything I post.

Favorite Prospects-2nd rounders

2008-03-26T07:37:00.000-07:00

While reading up on all the possible Colts picks there have been a few prospects that I really liked. Exciting players that fit what the Colts do. When these guys are taken there will be a response from me, either an excited fist pump as the Colts select them, a disappointed head in hands sigh when another team drafts them or a moment of frustration followed by a calm "In Polian we trust," if the Colts pass on a favorite.

Possible 2nd rounders
Chris Johnson- I joke about liking the East Carolina runningback so much it's become physical attraction, but he really is my favorite and no other pick by the Colts would be as exciting. Johnson can backup Addai, return kicks and line up in the slot providing depth at WR too. He's a threat to go for a TD every time the ball is in his hands and the Colts wealth of other options will keep him from being overworked or made ineffective by misuse as an every-down
up the middle pounding, back (see Bush, Reggie). How's this for a dangerous set, Wayne and Marvin split wide, Clark at TE, Peyton in the shotgun flanked by Addai and Chris Johnson. 5 elite receiving targets on the field and it's a legitimate running formation because of Clark's solid blocking at TE and former fullback Addai ready to lead Johnson through the hole.

Trevor Laws The end of 2006 and start of 2007 showed how the Tampa-2 is suppose to work, two fast safeties covering deep with the big physical corners playing short and the athletic linebackers filling the middle of the zone. The seven men in coverage blanket the field allowing no quick throws. Up front the DEs fly up the field and around the tackles. The QB looks to step up out of danger, but sees penetration from the DTs and can't. He's is forced into a bad throw into tight coverage or to eat the ball for a big sack.
Disruptive DTs have been what the Colts have lacked, likely because it's the only position where the Colts don't specifically look for a type of player that most teams don't like (slower but strong tackling corners, small fast linebackers and safeties who cover and undersized pass rushing DEs). The kind of DT that the Colts really need is the kind of D-linemen every other team wants. Big enough to play the run, but quick with pass rushing moves to penetrate or push the pocket. Anthony McFarland is that kind of DT and Raheem Brock seemed to be becoming one before his injury. With McFarland cut and now signed with Pittsburgh the Colts lack a big pass rushing DT. Ed Johnson can hold up against the run, but does little to pressure the QB. Trevor Laws can do both. He's slightly undersized but holds up against the run and he can pressure the QB. A pass rusher in the very solid, but unspectacular Ed Johnson's spot is the piece missing from the Colts starting lineup.

Marcus Howard

Q: Who started their career with this 3 year stat line?

Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Sk	Int	Yds	TD	Lng	PD	FF	FR	Yds	Tkl	Ast
2003	22	IND	16	0	3.5	0	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	18	3
2004	23	IND	16	1	10.5						6	3	26	32	4
2005	24	IND	13	0	11.5	0	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	46	10

A: a fifth round pick who was dismissed as a "tweener" and pass rush specialist who racked up 25.5 sacks in 3 years in that role, became a starter in his fourth season and led the Colts in sacks in both the seasons since he entered the starting lineup, Robert Mathis.

The Colts need a backup DE who can rush the passer more than ever with Freeney returning from a season ending injury and last season revealing that none of the current backups are effective pass rushers. A second round pick is not too much a cost to fill this role and a player like Howard can definitely be a situational rusher early and grow into a staring role. Marcus Howard is likely to have a bigger immediate impact and progress faster because he is making the jump to the NFL from a higher level of competition than Mathis faced in D1-AA and is a more highly regarded prospect.

Andre Caldwell-just because O_O

Matt Forte- A HB/FB hybrid that blocks well and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's basically Addai shifted further towards the FB end of the RB spectrum.

Xavier Adabi- Everything in his profiles screams Colts linebacker, but he's probably to highly touted to become one. He will be flying all over the field from the WILL for some lucky team very soom.

Back

2008-03-22T22:14:00.000-07:00

I'm back from a great Spring Break in Mexico (maybe I should have mentioned it). I had enough internet access to keep up with the sports news, but didn't have the time to post. It's a slow part of the offseason (which is the slow part of the NFL year), but after a bit of sleep I'll be right back at it.

46 days to the draft

2008-03-11T15:52:00.000-07:00

That means another set of mocks with a few new names thrown out there:

DT, Dre Moore Quick off the line with rare speed in pursuit and has the size (6'4" 307) and strength (31 bench reps at the combine, set school weightlifting records) to hold his ground, he seems perfect of the Colts athletically. He is, but the best athletes aren't always the best football players. Got a late start to football, is inconsistent and needs work on his technique. He improved in these areas as a senior, but is still far from his potential.

RB Dantrell Savage (3rd round) A small back with good speed and hands. Size and injury history are concerns. His blocking was good at the college level but 5'8" 190lb RBs can't be expected to be very effective pass blockers in the NFL. Has the skill set of a return-man, but wasn't a kick returner in college.

Manning-Favre

2008-03-08T21:37:00.000-08:00

Sorry I haven't posted in a while. Here's some Favre hate to make it up to you all. It was written before last season while arguing with a packers fan friend so some numbers might be outdated. Wins and playoff result is to try to gauge the team around the QB, using wins to rate QBs is ridiculously stupid.

Best Seasons: (Their Prime)
Favre:
Year Completion% Yards TDs INTs Record Playoffs

1994 62.4 3882 33 14 9-7 lost in Divisional
1995 63.0 4413 38 13 11-5 lost NFC champ
1996 59.9 3899 39 13 13-3 Won Superbowl
1998 63.0 4212 31 23 11-5 lost in Wild Card
ave. 62.1 4102 35.3 15.8 11 wins
career best 65.4 4413 39 13 13 wins
career ave 61.1 3833 27.6 18 9.9wins

Manning:
2000 62.5 4413 33 15 10-6 lost in Wild Card
2003 67.0 4267 29 10 12-4 lost in AFC champ
2004 67.6 4557 49 10 12-4 lost in Divisonal
2006 65.0 4397 31 9 12-4 Won Superbowl
ave. 65.5 4409 35.3 11 11.5wins
career best 67.6 4557 49 9 14 wins
career ave. 64.0 4176 30.6 15.4 10.2wins

Rookie/1st year as starter
Manning (rookie) 56.7 3739 26 28
Farve (rookie) 0 for 4 2INTs
Farve (1st full year as starter)
60.9 3303 19 24
Playoffs/awards Favre Manning
Playoff record 11-9 7-6
Superbowl wins 1 1
Superbowl MVPs 0 1
Probowls 8 of 15 seasons 7 of 9 seasons
League MVPs 3 in 15 seasons 2 in 9 seasons

But Farve didn't have the same kind of weapons Manning has:
(Player)career best-Catches yards TDs
Sterling Sharpe 112 1423 18
Marvin Harrison 143 1722 15
Antonio Freeman 84 1424 14
Reggie Wayne 86 1320 12
Javon Walker 89 1382 12
Donald Driver 92 1295 9
Dallas Clark 37 488 5

-Manning's career bests are better
-Manning's Top 4 seasons are better (Their Primes)
-Manning's Rookie Season was better than Farve's 3rd or 4th season in the NFL
-Their Teams have been almost the same in wins over their careers .3 wins per year difference
-Manning and Farve have had similar playoff sucess and awards, but Manning has done it in 6 less seasons and is still a member of a contender
-Manning has had an all-time great reciever in Marvin Harrison, but Farve has had great recievers too

Farve is one of the best QB's ever to play in the NFL and a sure Hall of Famer but his best seasons and career are not better than Manning's
So unless the criteria is how awesome you thought they were when you were 7. Farve's prime was not better than Manning's best seasons so far.

Colts Free Agent List Updated

2008-03-01T21:42:00.000-08:00

http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/colts-free-agent-list.html

I'll keep adding as guys are signed

Late Update

2008-02-29T20:28:00.000-08:00

Took two days instead of one (I never get anything done on my days off), but here's the rest of the Mock List update.

DE/DT Jason Jones, (3rd round) A big DE with experience at DT and good quickness. Probably a fit with the Colts in the DT rotation (though it's pretty solid as of now) and as the big DE (Josh Thomas' role).

DE Marcus Howard NFL.com's evaluation sounds extremely similar to Robert Mathis pre-draft profiles; A DE with great production in college, but thought of as too small to play and has little/no experience at LB. Could be a good situational pass rusher available in the middle rounds.

And finally Draft Tek makes my night (so far, maybe I'll go out later like a normal person) by making Chris Johnson the Colts 2nd round pick.

New Prospects

2008-02-27T21:49:00.001-08:00

The Mock drafts are picking up following the combine. Here are the newcomers to the Colt's list.

DT, DeMario Pressley
A big run stopping double team absorber, not really a fit for the Colts since he does little more than hold his ground (very, very well).

LB, Jerod Mayo
A fast aggressive LB, played both inside and out in college

-Adding more tomorrow, time to sleep-

Painful Cuts and Spending $$$

2008-02-27T20:40:00.000-08:00

Anthony McFarland and Rob Morris were cut today after failing their physicals. It's sad to see two more quality well-liked players leave the Colts that way (it was Brandon Stokley and Monte Reagor last year). On the bright side for the Colts they now have another 8 million in cap room to work with, putting them more than 10 million under the cap. Let's ease the pain of losing two great guys by spending that 10 million.

10.5 million minus

-3.5 million for draft picks (picks from rounds 2 to 7 for Colts last year 3.2mil)

-1.86 million for 4th round tenders on Giordano and Gandy (930,000 each)

-1.o7 million for new contracts for Darrell Reid and Ben Utecht (guessing both made 435,000 last year so a 100,000 (23%) raise should do it

-600,000 for league minimum deals for Ed Johnson and Thorpe (Exclusive rights free agents)

-500,000 for Fletcher or Seidman, coaches choice since we never got to see Seidman play due to injury

That leaves 2.97 million left with Jake Scott, Josh Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Aaron
Moorehead and Bryan Fletcher or Mike Seidman as the Colts FAs remaining.

Scott is gone unless the free agent market for him totally collapses, Boiman isn't needed after being replaced by Hagler as a starter and Sessions as a backup, Klecko hardy saw the field last season, Moorehead sucks, and if Seidman hadn't gotten hurt and IRed either him or Fletcher would have been cut anyway. That leaves Josh Thomas, he's valuable as the big DE subbing in, but isn't anything special. Resigning him is the backup plan for what I'd really like-

I'd like to sign Travis LaBoy here, the only contract guesstimate I could find has him at 4.5 million a year, by backloading the deal that's possible to fit into 3 million in cap room this year or they could dip into the savings from Clark's extension (which I haven't counted since I don't know how much it'll be).

So, bring back Giordano, Gandy, Utecht, Reid, and a 3rd TE and let Scott, Thomas, Boiman, Klecko, Moorehead and Fletcher-Seidman go, then sign LaBoy.

(All cap numbers from the awesome Colts Cap.Net)

Another round of Mocks

2008-02-25T05:42:00.000-08:00

and three new Colts picks

OT, Carl Nicks (profile) a massive tackle with experience on both ends of the line.

DT, Pat Sims a very big DT, but may be athletic enough to fit with the Colts, the writer of the mock draft seems to know something I don't stating, "Booger McFarland is now gone."

DE, Cliff Avril (profile) a undersized tweener end with good speed and pass rushing skills.

I <3 Chris Johnson

2008-02-24T20:42:00.000-08:00

The runningback for ECU is now my favorite prospect by far. He was already my favorite before today, I already knew he was fast, could return kicks, play wide receiver or runningback and averaged 6 yards a carry in college but today he went out and absolutely flew in the 40. He ran the best time of the 08 combine to date and one of the fastest ever, 4.24 seconds.

Now the only question is will the Colts have to trade up to get him and should they? (if it's not far I say "yes, yes, yes please yes.")

A prospect for the Utecht Haters

2008-02-23T07:52:00.000-08:00

Martellus Bennett, the 6'7" 250lb Tight End from Texas A&M. He could fill both the blocking TE and big redzone target roles for the Colts. He's an excellent blocker with good hands, but is a bit slow and needs work on his route running. He could more than fill Utecht's role. He has the same strengths, but many of the same weaknesses, including this scary phrase in his profile, "Does not always secure the ball."

Is super-size Utecht worth a 2nd round pick? He's ranked #33 overall by Matt Miller and #32 by Scout.com, others are less high on him, but it's unlikely he'll be around by the time the Colts have their 3rd round pick. With Tight Ends and O linemen working out at the combine today he's a guy to watch.

Great profiles/list

2008-02-19T09:11:00.000-08:00

NFL.com has posted a ton of great prospect profiles, so I'm going to link the profile of every player from the mock draft list. Hopefully this will make a neater list of possible Colts draft picks and give great info. The number in parenthesis (#) is the prospects rank in the draft class from Matt Miller at New Era Scouting and Mocking the Draft, The number in brackets [#] is the rank by scout.com.

RBs
Chris Johnson (#59) [#37]
Matt Forte (#48) [#82]
Ray Rice (#107) [#85]
Tashard Choice (#86) [#134]
Jacob Hester (#122) [#198]
Dantrell Savage (#179) [#157]

WRs
Chris Johnson* (#59) [#37]
Devin Thomas (#73) [#24]
James Hardy (#75) [#66]
Andre Caldwell O_O (#99) [#49]

TEs
Fred Davis (#39) [#22]
Martellus Bennett (#33) [#32]
Jacob Tamme (#127) [#130]

OL
Carl Nicks (#65) [#27]
Branden Albert (#50) [#57]
Roy Schuening (#69) [#93]
Tony Hills (#90) [#90]
Robert Felton (#97) [#59]
Chilo Rachal (#128) [#121]
Heath Benedict (#115) [#116]
Eric Young (#185) [#73]
Drew Radovich (#188) [#86]
Oneil Cousins (unlisted) [#33]
Chad Rinehart (unlisted) [#122]

LBs
Xavier Adibi (#35) [#74]
Geno Hayes (#57) [#67]
Phillip Wheeler (#74) [#71]
Bruce Davis (#80) [#125]
Jerod Mayo (#70) [#72]

DEs
Chris Ellis(#54) [#47]
Phillip Wheeler* (#74) [#71]
Darrell Robertson (#111) [#61]
Bruce Davis*(#80) [#125]
Cliff Avril (#161) [#79]
Jason Jones (#120) [#146]
Jeremy Thompson (#157) [#186]
Marcus Howard (unlisted) [#160]

DTs
Pat Sims (#55) [#45]
Dre Moore (#85) [#68]
Frank Okam (#41) [#119]
Red Bryant (#105) [#107]
Demario Pressley (#108) [#131]
Jason Jones* (#120) [#146]

*=I know I listed him twice he could play either position

my thoughts on these players can be found here

Update

2008-02-15T12:29:00.000-08:00

New Mock Picks
2nd round
DT, Red Bryant, (profile) (profile2) Finally everyone's favorite part of the mock draft season, calling someone a moron for not knowing which type of player fits into each of the 32 team's systems. Huge (6'5" 330lbs), neither quick nor fast and having little impact as a pass rusher Bryant is not a Colts DT.

3rd round
WR, Andre Caldwell, (profile) A big play threat with the hands that caught the most passes in the history of the Florida Gators. Caldwell is fast, runs good routes and is quick out of cuts. At 6 foot 200lbs he looks like the rest of the Colts WR corps.

OT/OG Heath Benedict (profile) Like Rinehart, a small school star, all the tools, but didn't face top competition. Benedict began at Tennessee, but academic problems caused his move to D-II.

Two new 2nd rounders

2008-02-13T12:53:00.000-08:00

More guys someone out there thinks the Colts will draft.

LB, Phillip Wheeler, (profile) (profile) A fast, aggressive, undersized linebacker with solid coverage skills. Fits into a cover two at OLB. Experience and sack production at DE and MLB in college makes blitzing or using him as a rush end an option.

DE, Jeremy Thompson (stats) a big DE without huge sack production, he was strong against the run. After initially dismissing this pick I realized he could fix the depth at DE in the opposite way than I had been trying to, by taking snaps away from Freeney/Mathis in running situations keeping them fresh, instead of finding another great pass rusher to replicate what they do.

Full list is here

Restricted Free Agency

2008-02-13T10:31:00.000-08:00

A NFL feature that only a Madden Franchise Mode addict could understand and enjoy. Here are the Colts RFAs for 2008 with their draft round (important in a minute):

Update: all five RFAs received the lowest tender amount ($930,000), if they are signed by another team the Colts can match the contract or receive a draft pick in the round that the player was originally drafted in.

TE, Bryan Fletcher (6th round)
OG/C, Dylan Gandy (4th round)
S, Matt Giordano (4th round)
DE/DT/star special teamer Darrell Reid (undrafted)
TE, Ben Utecht (undrafted)

Here's the simplest explanation of restricted free agency I could write, (copy pasted from Monday's post):

Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.

Here are the contract tender levels that the Colts have to choose from:

$2.35 million	First- and third-round
$1.85 million	First-round
$1.3 million	Second-round
$850,000	Determined by RFA's original draft status

Both Gandy and Giordano are useful players and their 4th round draft status will either scare teams away or give enough compensation to the Colts if they're given the 850K tender. Gandy could step into either guard spot and start. With both starting guards FAs they can't let their backup go too. Giordano is a good backup safety (he's both Sanders' and Bethea's backup) can play CB in the dime (like he did in the Superbowl), contributes on special teams and is unbelievably fast (almost caught Hester in SBXLI, still ran the 40 at the combine even with a torn pectoral that forced him to keep one arm at his side the whole time. His time was a 4.5)

I would like to see Utecht, Fletcher and Reid all back but the lowest tender offer would nearly double their cap charge from last year and provide no compensation for Utecht and Reid if they left. The Colts need to roll the dice and not offer them a tender or get an extension for less than the tender amount done before the 29th when Free Agency begins. Without a tender offer they'll become free agents and can return at closer to their 2007 salaries. Hopefully no other team has fallen in love with any of these three as I'd love to see them back.

Colts Free Agent List

2008-02-11T09:50:00.000-08:00

I had trouble finding a list of all the Colts free agents a while back. Colts Cap has the best one I've found, but I didn't find that while looking for a free agent list. So I'll list out the guys they have as FAs here and hopefully help any curious Colts fans searching the web.
Updated: 3/1/08, 3/11/08

Unrestricted FAs-
Rocky Boiman, OLB
Dallas Clark, TE/WR (Resigned, 6yrs-36million)
Dan Klecko, DT/FB
Ryan Lilja OG (Resigned, 5yrs-20million)
Aaron Moorehead WR
Jake Scott OG (Signed with Titans, 4yrs-20million)
Mike Seidman TE
Josh Thomas DE

Restricted FAs*-
Bryan Fletcher, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Dylan Gandy, OG/C (Tendered-$930,000)
Matt Giordano, S (Tendered-$930,000)
Darrell Reid, DT/DE/special teams ace (Tendered-$930,000)
Ben Utecht, TE (Tendered-$930,000)

Exclusive Rights FAs**-
Ed Johnson DT (Resigned, 1yr 370,000)
Craphoso Thorpe WR/KR (released)

*=Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.

The tender levels, their $ amount for 2007 and the draft compensation for them:

$2.35 million	First- and third-round
$1.85 million	First-round
$1.3 million	Second-round
$850,000	Determined by RFA's original draft status

**=Exclusive Rights Free Agents are players with only one or two years in the NFL. Their former teams can prevent them from becoming unrestricted free agents just by offering them a contract for the NFL minimum.

Colts Cap/Free Agents

2008-02-10T08:59:00.000-08:00

Cap room is the biggest determining factor in how a team approaches free agency. I rediscovered this awesome site, Colts Cap, that will provide (roughly) the limits of what the Colts will be able to in the upcoming months.

They put the Colts as being 9.7 million under the cap as of the end of January.

That 9.7 million is to be split between the Colts' 15 free agents, 6+ draft picks and any undrafted rookies or other teams FAs the Colts would like to add.

The FA's:

Dallas Clark, The Colts say they will franchise tag him if they do not get an extension done.

The Franchise tag is a one year contract worth the average salary of the top five players at the same position as the tagged player. A tagged player does not become a free agent while under the tag, regardless of whether they have signed the offer.

The TE tag would cost 4.5 million for the non-exclusive tag (which would allow other teams to negotiate a contract with Clark, but the Colts would have the option of matching that contract and would receive two first round picks as compensation if they chose not to match). The exclusive tag, which the Colts used on Freeney, does not allow teams to negotiate with the tagged player, but is more expensive since it would be calculated using the average of the top 5 salaries for the current year (2008) instead of 2007. There was a difference of one million between the two tags at the TE position last year.

So 4.5 million off the cap for Clark if he's tagged, maybe only 3 to 4 million if they get an extension done.

That leaves between 4.2 and 6.7 million. Ed Johnson and Craphonso Thorpe are exclusive rights free agents, meaning as long as the Colts offer them the minimum salary ~300,000 they can't sign with any other team. Johnson is worth that without a doubt and Thorpe provides depth at receiver and another option for a return man so he'll get the minimum.

Before anyone else is signed the Colts need to save some of that 3.4 to 6.1 million for signing the next wave of awesome Polian draft picks and undrafted rookies. The Colts don't have a first round pick so most of the cost of the draft doesn't apply to them. Here's what the Colts draft picks counted on the cap last year. All picks besides Ugoh were at the end of the round.

1st round Gonzalez, 1.1 million
2nd round (pick #10) Ugoh, $650,000
3rd round, Hughes, $437,500
Pitcock, $430,000
4th round, Condren $382,000
Sessions $377,500
5th round, Hall $321,687
Coe $319,500
7th round, Dawson $295,375
Undrafted rookies, FA additons, Practice Squad
$4 million

So 3.2 Million just for the 2nd through 7th round picks last year and another 4 million in other new players. The FA number should be less this season since the Colts struggled with injuries last season and currently have 61 players on the roster.

Assuming all the FA additions and practice squad are among the 61 on the roster that leaves between $200,000 and 2.9 million for the 12 remaining FAs and undrafted rookies.

Cuts are coming.

New names

2008-02-09T14:11:00.000-08:00

Additions to the mock Colts picks list:

2nd rounders
DE, Darrell Robertson (profile) (another) a pass rushing specialist with the frame to add weight. 6'5" 240-250. Labeled a tweener, but may be bigger than Robert Mathis already.

WR, James Hardy (profile) A giant (6'7") WR to contrast the trio of 6 footers the Colts have at the 1-3 spots.

3rd rounders
LB, Geno Hayes, a quick LB that can cover the pass well and isn't a liability against the run

FB Jacob Hester (profile) another HB/FB tweener. Good hands, converts short yardage situations often and is great on special teams. Not fast or explosive as a HB and not a powerful lead blocking FB.

Full list is here

Instead of posting tons of awesome content today

2008-02-06T13:13:00.000-08:00

I did even better. Far more than I could write and it's all probably better too. Scroll down and on the right hand side is every sports site I read regularly. Feel free to comment or E-mail me more sites, I always have time to kill reading about sports.

More Mocks

2008-02-06T08:24:00.000-08:00

http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/mock-indy-picks.html

The consensus so far looks like Best Guard Available or LB Xavier Adabi.

Q: Who is more dominant in there respective sport, Tiger Woods or Tom Brady?

2008-02-05T05:53:00.001-08:00

A: Eli Manning

Mocks added/updated

2008-02-04T12:28:00.000-08:00

http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/mock-indy-picks.html

or scroll down.

looking back

2008-02-03T20:55:00.000-08:00

My second favorite team in my favorite sport went 1 and 18 this year. After their 0-18 start I thought they'd never win a game, but I have learned to never say never. My team came through when it counted to give me the greatest 1-18 season in the history of sports.

So a huge thanks to my second favorite team, "Whoever is playing the Pats" I love you guys.

Mock Indy picks

2008-02-02T16:05:00.000-08:00

Who do the NFL draft experts around the web think the Colts will draft?
(This is a work in progress. I'll add more links to mocks and comments over the next few days.)

2nd round (pick #59)
OT/OG Oniel Cousins (profile)
G, Chilo Rachal (seconded) (profile)
G, Roy Schuening (agreement) (him again) (profile)
G, Eric Young (another vote)
G, Brandon Albert
OT/OG Tony Hills (profile)
I doubt the Colts spend their first pick of the draft on a guy to play guard. One or both of the guards may return, whether both, one or neither of the Guards are resigned will decide if guard is a concern. Between Dylan Gandy, Charlie Johnson and the wealth of later picks in the 08 draft I think the Colts can fill at least one, maybe both guard spots without using a first day pick.

LB_Xavier Adibi, (This one too) (Third-ed) (Popular pick) (profile) (another), A speedy, underweight LB who excels in pass coverage and could contribute on special teams Adibi is a great fit for the Colts defense. Again I disagree with the position of the player. The Colts LB corps is as strong as it's ever been and for the first time in years will not lose a starter to free agency (Boiman is the only LB FA). If Dungy and Polian love Adibi and see him as a great value at the end of the second I could see them using the pick on him, but it's not a position of need and earlier than the Colts usually take LBs.

LB, Bruce Davis, (profile) A fast aggressive LB with experience at DE. 24.5 sacks in the last two years. Pessimistic, "tweener" profile sounds like Robert Mathis' pre-drafts. Even smaller than Mathis at 229lbs but is 6'3" (an inch taller than Mathis) so could bulk up to a more appropriate size. 2nd round is too early but I'd love for the Colts to grab him in the middle rounds.

LB, Phillip Wheeler, (profile) (profile) A fast, aggressive, undersized linebacker with solid coverage skills. Fits into a cover two at OLB. Experience and sack production at DE and MLB in college makes blitzing or using him as a rush end an option.

RB, Ray Rice (J mays concurs) (profile), The 08 draft class is packed with quality RBs so a good one could make it all the way down to the Colts. The Colts say they would have taken Maurice Jones Drew if he would have fallen to them even after using their first rounder on Addai, so if the right RB falls the Colts will jump on him, no matter how set they feel at RB. Rice pushed 07 2nd round pick Brian Leonard into the background last year after splitting carries with him as a freshman.

HB/FB, Matt Forte (profile) (another) A big physical RB, a great inside runner with good hands and blocking skills. Could fill both the RB2 and Fullback spots for the Colts.
Cons: not very fast or elusive. Inexperienced as a lead blocker.

WR, Devin Thomas (profile) Put up big numbers as his team's only receiving threat. He outgained his team's #2 through #5 receivers 1260 yards to 1228 yards.

WR, James Hardy (profile) A giant (6'7") WR to contrast the trio of 6 footers the Colts have at the 1-3 spots.

TE Fred Davis (profile) (another) Excellent receiving TE with great hands and route running. Not a great blocker, but has the size and showed both effort and improvement to his blocking in college. Rated as either the best TE in the draft class or in the top 2-3.

TE, Martellus Bennett, the 6'7" 250lb Tight End from Texas A&M. He could fill both the blocking TE and big redzone target roles for the Colts. He's an excellent blocker with good hands, but is a bit slow and needs work on his route running. He could more than fill Utecht's role. He has the same strengths, but many of the same weaknesses, including this scary phrase in his profile, "Does not always secure the ball."

DE, Christopher Ellis (profile) (another) A bit of a project (underweight), very quick, with good pass rushing skills. The last player that slid to the Colts because he was too light will be playing in his first Pro Bowl Sunday, Antonie Bethea (now a impressive 203lbs).

DE, Darrell Robertson (profile) (another) a pass rushing specialist with the frame to add weight. 6'5" 240-250. Labeled a tweener, but may be bigger than Robert Mathis already.

DE, Jeremy Thompson (stats) a big DE without huge sack production, he was strong against the run. After initially dismissing this pick I realized he could fix the depth at DE in the opposite way than I had been trying to, by taking snaps away from Freeney/Mathis in running situations keeping them fresh, instead of finding another great pass rusher to replicate what they do.

DE, Cliff Avril (profile) a undersized tweener end with good speed and pass rushing skills.

DT, Pat Sims a very big DT, but may be athletic enough to fit with the Colts, the writer of the mock draft seems to know something I don't stating, "Booger McFarland is now gone."

DT, Red Bryant, (profile) (profile2) Finally everyone's favorite part of the mock draft season, calling someone a moron for not knowing which type of player fits into each of the 32 team's systems. Huge (6'5" 330lbs), neither quick nor fast and having little impact as a pass rusher Bryant is not a Colts DT.

Round 3 (pick #93):
OG, Drew Radovich (draft-tek agrees) (profile)
See comments on Guards above

Xavier Adibi, LB I like him better here. He sounds like a Colts LB.

Geno Hayes, a quick LB that can cover the pass well and isn't a liability against the run
TE, Jacob Tamme (profile) a fast receiving TE, he has great hands, but is a poor blocker. He would be a replacement for Clark (not leaving) or Fletcher, not Utecht. He doesn't block well enough to be a true TE. He's a Dallas Clark type TE. His hands might be better than Clark's but his blocking will be worse. If the Colts don't bring back Fletcher or decide not to keep Clark beyond the one year franchise tag that they've said they'll put on him, Tamme could be the replacement as a slot WR/3rd down TE.

RB/WR, Christopher Johnson (profile) (another)
Pro: One of the fastest players in college football, an excellent receiver and return threat, could be a WR or 3rd down back.
Con: Blocking needs work, not an effective inside runner, likely never to be an every down back, may be unable to play full time at WR or RB at an NFL level after bouncing between the two throughout college.
He could add even more flexibility to the Colts offense while taking over kick (and possibly punt) return duties, or we could cut off his hands and attach them to Kenton Keith.

WR, Andre Caldwell, (profile) A big play threat with the hands to catch the most passes in the history of the Florida Gators. Caldwell is fast, runs good routes and is quick out of cuts. At 6 foot 200lbs he looks like the rest of the Colts WR corps.

DT, Frank Okam (profile) a massive 6'5" 320lb DT with quickness, who is likely to be gone long before this pick.

OT/OG, Chad Rinehart (profile) A dominant Left Tackle at the 1-AA level for Northern Iowa, he was all the physical tools to be successful in the NFL at tackle or guard.

OT/OG Heath Benedict (profile) Like Rinehart a small school star, all the tools, but didn't face top competition. Benedict began at Tennessee, but academic problems caused his move to D-II.

FB Jacob Hester (profile) another HB/FB tweener. Good hands, converts short yardage situations often and is great on special teams. Not fast or explosive as a HB and not a powerful lead blocking FB.

Round 4:
TE, Jacob Tamme, again. Better value this time.

WR, DJ Hall (profile) Depth at receiver is good.

Skip Bayless, Hack or Tool?

2008-01-28T09:29:00.000-08:00

a few minutes ago I happened to walk past my TV which I had left ESPN's "First Take" on and was hit with the stupidest sports question I've ever heard, "Who is more dominant in there respective sport, Tiger Woods or Tom Brady?

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING?

Even allowing for the usual amount of ESPN hyperbole and Pats ball washing that is ridiculous.

First of all you are comparing a individual sport to a team sport. Every single win of Tiger's is his alone. Brady doesn't do a single thing on the football field without the help of 10 teammates on offense and doesn't win a game without the help of 40-some teammates plus a large coaching staff. If Tiger has a bad day, he loses. If Brady gets outplayed by Chad Pennington (who wasn't even the starter for that game) or throws three picks in a playoff game his team still marches on towards 19-0.

Tiger Woods is in a class of his own. I don't even follow golf and I know that. Brady is great and an argument that he's the best in the game today can definitely be made, but he isn't in the same class of dominance as Tiger simply because you can make an argument that one of his contemporaries (Peyton) is better without being laughed out of the room. No one argues that Tiger isn't the best golfer around today, because he clearly is. Whether you think Tom Brady is the best or not, there is another QB in that discussion, making him nowhere near as dominant as Tiger Woods.

Donovan McNabb who was a guest on the show, answered Tiger without hesitation. Skip Bayless then took the side of Brady. The question is, is he a hack who took the opposite side, no matter how wrong simply to make an argument? Or is he a tool of unheard of proportions who actually believes that there is a bigger gap between Tom Brady and
Peyton Manning than between Tiger Woods and ?

Fixing the Special Teams

2008-01-27T10:28:00.000-08:00

Football Outsiders DVOA ranked the Colts special teams dead last overall, 31st on FG/XPs, 29th in kickoff coverage, 26th in punt coverage, 24th in kickoff returns and the lone bright spot, 6th in punt returns. You don't need advanced stats to tell you the special teams were awful, it was obvious. They cost the Colts a minimum of one win (@SD) and put the offense and defense in bad situations the entire year. How does a team that requires top level speed from it's linebackers, great tackling ability from it's DBs, has a 288lb DT who is fast enough to cover kicks and employs the highest paid kicker in the league suck on special teams?

I have to point the finger at the coaching. The talent is there, the Colts love the kind of defensive players that most teams relegate to special teams, undersized speedy LBs and D-linemen, hard hitting DBs, even some with top level speed (Giordano/Jennings), they used a fifth round pick on Roy Hall (who hardly played in college) because he had the physical talent to contribute on special teams immediately, not as a returner, on the coverage unit. Dungy and Polian see special teams as such a problem they are using mid round picks on kick coverage players. The Colts special teams have been above average once in Russ Purnell's time as the Colt's special team coach (2003, 14th in the league and that's with Vanderjagt perfect on FG/XPs). The Colts kickoff unit has varied between bad and embarrassing, but remained below average for Purnell's entire 6 years with the Colts. The Punt unit has hovered around the low side of average with occasional dips to horrible. The return units are consistently average. Russ Purnell=bad special teams play.

Was Vinateiri hurt? If he was I'm willing to writeoff his horrible season, but if not I'm worried. The highest paid kicker in the league should not be 12.4 points below the average NFL kicker. Hopefully his booming kickoffs and first successful 40+ yard FG in the SD playoff game means he was hurt for most of the year like some people were suggesting. If the Colts know he was healthy through that awful stretch of season Vinatieri should be on a tight leash next year. If this year is the kind of year the Colts will continue to get from him he can be added right below Corey Simon on the list of reasons the Colts don't sign big money FAs.

Hopefully the Colts will finally take steps in the right direction. Fire Purnell and figure out what the hell was wrong with Mr. Clutch. I don't want to dread kickoffs and punts anymore.

Another Brian Burke post on the lucky Pats

2008-01-24T20:55:00.000-08:00

http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/01/is-red-zone-performance-real.html

In it he tests whether there is any statistical evidence to suggest that some QBs perform have an ability to perform better in the redzone than others (they're clutch). He finds that which QBs do well in the redzone and which do poorly has little to do with how they do on the rest of the field, strongly suggesting randomness. QBs that perform better than average in the redzone are very likely just lucky. And who was really lucky in the redzone this season, Mr. Touchdown, Tom Brady.

I've said it before and will say it again, "Brady is a great QB, one of the top 2 in the league, but his shiny new TD passing record is a product of a lot of attempts, a bit of luck and having the force that is a motivated Randy Moss."

Here's what to look for

2008-01-21T20:55:00.000-08:00

Mathis' pre-draft profiles:

SI.com

Sports Network.com

NFL Draft Scout.com

Len Pasquarelli
Robert Mathis of Alabama A&M (No. 5) isn't big enough to play end on a regular basis, and has no experience at linebacker, but it's hard to ignore the 17 sacks he registered in 2002. The Tony Dungy scheme will find some way to put him to use, probably as a third-down rusher.

Mel Kiper: Indianapolis also got a potential sleeper in Robert Mathis, who could be good as a situational pass rusher and special teams player.

So that's the kind of guy I hope the Colts are looking for in the draft this year.

Those were all I could find from a Google search post more as comments if you find some.

Changes on the defense

2008-01-21T10:10:00.000-08:00

The complete lack of a pass rush turned the top pass and scoring D in the league into one that gives up 264 yards and 3 TDs to Marmalard.

This has caused some questioning of the Colts style of defense, we should blitz more, mix up packages, etc. My response to this is, "The enemy of good is better," and if your defining #1 pass and scoring D as good, there's really not a whole lot of room for better, only worse. There is nothing wrong with the Colts defense that requires a change in scheme.
Freeney's return and Mathis and Brock getting healthy should do a lot to fix the pass rush, but a definite weakness in the Colts D was revealed this year, there are only two players on the defense that can get pressure from the outside. Polian needs to dust off some second day magic and find the Colts D another 2004-05 Robert Mathis, a situational pass rusher who can come in on passing downs and backup both DE position. Mathis in 2004 and 2005: 22 sacks, 1 start. Mathis fell to the fifth round in 2003, there are guys like him out there and the Colts need (another) one.
The other question on the D-line is whether McFarland should return or be cut for cap savings. Ed Johnson became one of a small group of undrafted players that started every game of their rookie season. Has he made McFarland unneeded and not worth his cap number? Well, the D was amazing all season with Johnson in the middle, but the Colts D with McFarland won them a Superbowl. On this one I have to answer "I don't know." If cap room is tight he can be done without, but keeping him would be great if possible.
Nickelback was the other sore spot on the defense. Tim Jennings was consistently out of position and committing penalties. Some of that is expected from a second year player who is asked to play on the outside instead of the slot and sometimes cover the opposition's best receiver (honestly, why did they put him on Moss, that was the dumbest thing I saw from the Colts all year). Rookie Dante Hughes looked strong late in the year and saw some time in the nickel package until a shoulder injury landed him on IR. He could take the nickel spot next year, he is basically Marlin Jackson Lite. That's good and bad. Jackson is a great cover two corner, but the Colts like to move him to the slot to hide his lack of speed. Hughes has the same problem, only one of them can play inside in the nickel leaving one on the outside in a mid to deep passing situation where they're are at their weakest, that's why a nickelback who can play on the outside is still needed. Polian loves drafting DBs so there should be a whole new batch of rookies to get a shot.
The linebacker position is as solid as it's ever been. Brackett is performing at a Pro Bowl level, Keiaho is the beast we thought he would be and Hagler grew into his role on the strong side. Rob Morris will be healthy and is under contract for next year and was playing well before his injury. Colts rookie linebackers might as well be in the witness protection program, because they are drafted and disappear for two years, but Clint Sessions found his way onto the field and was excellent in his limited playing time. The linebacker position appears to have recovered from the talent drought that allow Gilbert Gardner into the starting lineup.

Still kind of depressed about the Colts game

2008-01-20T12:54:00.000-08:00

Not in my actual life, but following the NFL has been a lot less fun the last week. That said, Go Chargers and Go Packers.

The Chargers choice is for obvious reasons (I hate the Pats).

The Packers are because even though I bash Favre and his legion of ball washers a lot the Packers have history with me. The first NFL game I ever remember watching was Brett Favre in the superbowl. I rooted for the Packers then and I guess I'm reduced to doing it again.

Disappointment and Moving On

2008-01-14T09:19:00.000-08:00

The Colts season is over. No repeat, no chance to end the perfect season, no three extra weeks of awesome football for the fans. Did I scream obscenities and throw things? Only during the Cromartie INT return. Did I cry like a baby? No. Do I feel like we lost to a better team? No, but they outplayed the Colts yesterday. Am I searching for a scapegoat? No, there's a large share of blame at everyone's feet today. The D regressed, they generated no pass rush and committed stupid penalties. The Offense turned the ball over three times while in scoring position and failed to put the ball in the endzone from inside the 10 for the win, but I'm over all of that now. There are football fans dwelling on the loss, some tastefully and rationally, others likely less so. I'm sure between the two groups everything the can be said (no matter how right or wrong) will be said about the game, so instead I'm taking the more optimistic angle : What do the Colts need to do over the long 7 months until next season? The playoff loss is still fresh in my mind and it would be ridiculous to ignore the game that eliminated the Colts so it will be part of the analysis, but it isn't the focus.

I'm breaking down the offseason into 4 parts that I'll cover in detail later (there are 7 months until next season I'm sure I'll beat them all to death)

What to change? (offseason plans/goals)
The FAs
The Cuts
The Draft

Changes on the offense
The 2007 Colts were done in by injuries and poor execution, so nothing resembling the offseason overhaul many teams need is required for the Colts. On offense inexperience and poor execution were the problems, but that doesn't mean no changes are needed. Kenton Keith showed the he can run the ball at an NFL level and was good in pass protection, but he cannot catch the football well enough to be a runningback in the Colts system. Keith is more likely to have a successful run (58%) than catch a pass thrown to him (57%). Best of luck to you elsewhere (likely in the NFL) in a system that doesn't require you to be a good receiver. The Colts need a new backup RB (Dom Rhodes, you still out there). The receiving corps is excellent if healthy, but depth is poor. If Marvin returns and recovers from his knee injury (please, please, please, please recover and return Marvin) then WR is an afterthought, with an elite top 3 in Marvin, Reggie and Gonzo. The O line struggled with injuries and both guards are free agents. Howard Mudd consistently turns middle to late rounders into NFL level guards so neither will return if they want big money. Tony Ugoh was a force when healthy and smashed the level of expectations set for a second round rookie starting at Left Tackle from day one. "The left tackle was defined by his weakest moment. He wasn't measured by his body of work, but by the outliers" (The Blind Side, Michael Lewis). Ugoh was at his weakest when it mattered most. Up against one of the top pass rushers in the game Ugoh contained him for 59 minutes, zero sacks from Merriman (the botched draw play was counted as Manning run), but on that final drive he was beaten with the game on the line. That moment reminded us all that he was still a rookie. He'll get better and maybe next season will stone Merriman in that final minute.
The offense needs to get the guard position settled and find a back with good hands to pair with Addai and they are set for another run.

Note: I know there are at least a few people out there reading. I'm not above talking to myself, but talking to actual people is better. If you disagree with anything I say or want to add or whatever please feel free to comment.

Divisional Picks/thoughts

2008-01-12T09:53:00.000-08:00

There are four clear favorites this week (I thought, see odds below). This makes most peoples picks hard, but mine easy.

"All four favorites won't advance. There will be one upset, but I don't really see more than one happening"-everyone (Bill Simmons and Mike Golic specifically)

Yeah, you're probably right, but even if that is true you can either:
Try to guess which game is the upset and have a 1 in 4 chance at getting all 4 games right, but a 3 in 4 chance of getting two games wrong (the wrong upset pick + the actual upset)
Take all four favorites and lock in a 3 of 4 (75%, better than anyone gets long run)

And that's assuming a favorite loses. They are the favorites for a reason. They are probably going to win. Using Brian Burke's Win Probability from here The odds of all four favorites winning 26.4% (.74 x .80 x .55 x .81)
The odds of the most likely one upset combo 21.6% (.74 x .80 x .45 x .81)
The odds that the popular upset pick (Giants) is right 6.2% (.74 x .80 x .55 x .19)

If someone wants to bet you that all the favorites will win, take it, because then you get all four underdogs working for you. If you're just picking winners though the odds are with the favorites.

So give me the favorites. Pats, Colts, Packers and Cowboys

Bonus odds: Pats v Colts AFC title game next week 59.2% (.74 x .80)

ESPN Reporter told by source that Ferentz is staying, reporter can't pronounce Ferentz

2008-01-10T08:55:00.000-08:00

I keep ESPN on in the background while I'm on the computer reading real sports news. This usually just makes me angry and wonder why I do it. Yesterday was just another one of those days.

Some ESPN reporter was on with a breaking report from his sources, saying Iowa Football Coach Kirk Ferentz is staying at Iowa (just like he does every year) instead of jumping to the NFL. That didn't surprise me and I was actually happy to have any irrational fear of Ferentz leaving put to rest by ESPN. Then the reporter kept talking, this guy who supposedly has sources that know what coach Ferentz is going to do with his career, mispronounced Ferentz. Ok, once is fine, he misspoke it happens. He continued and over and over said the name wrong. How does he not know how to say the name when he has "sources" telling him that the guy is staying. How does he talk to his source and then not learn how to pronounce the name. Did no one at ESPN listen to the reporter talk before he went on. Ferentz isn't some nobody, he's a coach of a BCS conference team and a yearly NFL coaching candidate.

Repeat after me ESPN reporter with "sources" FAIR-rents not fur-RINSE (said as one syllable)

Some Tuesday stuff

2008-01-08T10:06:00.000-08:00

3 of 4 on Playoff picks

Colts are looking healthy, Antonio Gates is not

Are the Pats a 14-2 team that got lucky?
http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/01/luckiest-teams-2007.html
According to Brian Burke's numbers they are. Those are also the numbers that outpicked every expert out there over the course of the NFL season.

Good Morning

2008-01-06T11:49:00.000-08:00

It's 1:50 central time. The Bucs-Giants game started a while ago so I won't count my Bucs pick. Unless they are losing right now. Fair Enough?

The Chargers-Titans game is the one that I'm most interested in the result of, this game will set the Colts divisional round opponent. If the Chargers win the Colts get them at home. If the Titans pull the upset, they go to New England and the Jags head to Indy. The QB situation has some worried about who to pick/bet, it shouldn't. They both bring about the same amount to the table, not a whole lot. Collins is a competent passer and Young has great running ability. They are pretty close to interchangeable in how much they help their team. Only the Chargers have to worry about which one plays. The Titans will lose no matter who starts at QB. Chargers

Wild Card Saturday

2008-01-04T23:18:00.000-08:00

Redskins @ Seahawks
The Seahawks are the better tea, but Washington has put together a great streak of games to sneak into the playoffs. The difference in DVOA stats between the 5-7 Redskins team that played the first 12 games of the year and the 4-0 Redskins that won
all of it's last 4 is almost entirely an improvement in third down defense. FO
readers know that a team performing differently on 3rd down than on 1st and 2nd is
likely to regress to the mean (1st and 2nd down performance). So a team playing very well on 3rd down, compared 1st and 2nd is probably going to stop playing over it's ability level soon*. That's the Redskins. The regression might not be this week, but it's (likely) coming. Seahawks.

*=The Peyton Manning led Colts have defied this general trend for most of Peyton's career. This is why FO's preseason predictions underestimate the Colts. It's factoring in a likely regression that isn't actually likely.

Jags @ Steelers
The Jags went into Heinz Field and dominated the Steelers for 3 quarters (22-7 through Q3). Then the Steelers got on track and put together two defensive stops each followed with successful drives , tying the game at 22 (one short drive following a Garrard pick and the other in true 07 Steelers fashion, overcoming a stuffed Parker run on first down and a sack on second, to convert 3rd and 18 to keep the TD drive alive).
The Jags outplayed the Steelers on their own field a month ago. They are likely the better team. They aren't the overwhelming favorite they are being made out to be, but they did win the previous game with, 3 quarters of dominance and held off the desperate comeback. The Steelers have relied on Roethlisberger to perform miracles being a awful O-line, usually in long yardage situation because Willie Parker is incapable of running for any gains between 2 and 15 yards (42% success rate, -11.3% DVOA). Parker is out, so the more consistent (52% success rate) Najeh "The Dump Truck" Davenport is the starting runningback. He could give them an offense that actually sustains drives. It's not the "obvious game" some make it out to be, but the Jags showed that they are the better team a month ago and did nothing to suggest they aren't the same team that beat the Steelers, while the Steelers have gotten worse if anything due to injuries. Jaguars.

Final Picks Record

2007-12-31T12:06:00.000-08:00

7 for 16 for week 17. Those pulled starters killed me. 52/79 (65.8%) posted, 163/256 (63.6%) for the full season. Finished right in the middle of the ESPN experts.
1 Jaworski 68.8%
2 Schlereth 66.7%
3 Hoge 65.2%
4 Mortensen 64.1%
5 Shake'n'Bake 63.6%
6 (Tie)Wickersham/Salisbury 63.1%
8 Allen 58.6%
9 Golic 58.4%

Picked a better % than last year, but beat fewer ESPN experts. Wow the season is really almost over. That's sad. On the bright side it's time for the 4 best weeks of games of the year. GO Colts

The Moss Effect

2007-12-30T12:28:00.000-08:00

Obviously Moss isn't the only change on the teams of the QBs being compared, but see the difference between with and without Randy Moss.

Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham in 1997 (Pre-Moss)
319-540, 59.1% completion, 3537 yards, 26 TDs, 16INTs, 6.6 yrds/att, 11.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 82.3

Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham in 1998 (rookie Moss)
327-533, 61.4% completion, 4492 yards, 41 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.4 yrds/att, 13.7 yrds/comp, QB Rating 101.5

Change in performance (1998 minus 1997)
+2.3% completion, +955 yards, +15 TDs, +0 INTs, +1.8 yards/att, +2.6 yrds/comp, +19.2 QB Rating

Daunte Culpepper 2004 (with Moss)
379-548, 69.2% completion, 4717 yards, 39 TDs, 11 INTs, 8.6 yrds/att, 12.4 yrds/comp, QB Rating 110.9, 136.2 DPAR

Daunte Culpepper and Brad Johnson in 2005 (post Moss)
323-510, 63.3% completion, 3449 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 10.7 yrds/comp, QB Rating 81.7, 32.3 DPAR

Change in performance (2004 minus 2005)
+5.9% completion, +1268 yards, +21 TDs, -5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +1.7 yrds/comp, +29.2 QB Rating, +103.9 DPAR

Kerry Collins 2004 (Pre Moss)
289-513, 56.3% completion, 3495 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 12.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 74.8, 4.8 DPAR

Kerry Collins 2005 (with Moss)
302-565, 53.5% completion, 3759 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.7 yrds/att, 12.4 yrds/comp, QB Rating 77.3, 47.5 DPAR

Change in performance (2005 minus 2004)
-2.8% completion, +264 yards, - 1TD, -8 INTs, -0.1 yrds/att, +0.3 yrds/comp, +2.5 QB Rating, +42.7 DPAR

Average change in QB performance with/without Moss pre-2007
+1.8% completion, +829 yards, +11.67 TDs, -4.33 INTs, +1.17 yrds/att, +1.53 yrds/comp, +16.97 QB Rating, +73.3 DPAR (can't find pre-2000 DPAR if anyone has a link please share)

Not using his Raiders stint where the popular opinion was Moss didn't try the average change is: +4.1% completion, +1111.5 yards, +18 TDs, -2.5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +2.15 yrds/comp, +24.2 QB Rating, +103.9 DPAR.

So a QB with Moss performs far better than the same QB a season later/earlier without him. Here's the before and after for Brady.

Tom Brady 2006 (pre Moss)
319-516, 61.8% completion, 3529 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 11.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 117.2, 75.9 DPAR

Tom Brady 2007 (with Moss)
398-578, 68.9% completion, 4806 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, 8.3 yrds/att, 12.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 87.9, (2007 DPAR should be done tomarrow night I'll update then)

Change in Brady's performance
+7.1% completion, +1277 yards, +26 TDs, -4 INTs, +1.5 yrds/att, +1 yrds/comp, +29.3 QB Rating

The Average change with a "motivated" Moss again
+4.1% completion, +1111.5 yards, +18 TDs, -2.5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +2.15 yrds/comp, +24.2 QB Rating

Similar?

If you subtract the average change from a motivated Moss you get
64.8% completion (less than 1% off Brady's previous career high), 3695 yards (lower than two previous Brady seasons), 32 TDs (4 over his career high), 10.5 INTs (1.5 below his career low), 6.7 yrds/att (below two previous seasons), 11.2 yards/comp (lower than 3 previous years) and a QB Rating of 93 (.4 of his career high)

Brady didn't play much better than you would expect a QB that had Randy Moss added to his offense. Brady just started out better than the other QBs Moss played with.

Moss for MVP?

Brady's awesome 2007

2007-12-29T23:22:00.000-08:00

-Copying and pasting from what I wrote as a comment on 18 to 88, because that's all I have to say tonight. Might have more after some sleep and plenty of over the top Brady love tomorrow.-

52 extra passes to tie the record. It doesn't invalidate the record that Brady needed more attempts, the record is his and no one can argue that he didn't throw the most TDs in NFL history. Where the attempts comes in is in comparing Brady's season to others (2004 Manning's because few other seasons compare statistically).

49 TDs in 497 attempts vs 50 in 578 attempts.

Who threw more TDs? Brady, obviously.

Who had the better season? I'd say Manning. A TD on average every 10 attempts for Manning compared to 11.5 for Brady. Almost a yard more per attempt (.9). 1.6 more yards per completion.

If Manning had the number of attempts Brady had this season (not much of a stretch because Manning was pulled earlier and more often from blowouts)...

04 Manning with 578 attempts

57 TDs, 5317.6 yards, 11.6 INTs

04 Manning with 526 attempts (Manning takes all of Sorgi's 04 snaps)

51.9 TDs, 4822.9 yards, 10.6 INTs

2 more TDs, 17 more yards and 2.6 more INTs.

Manning could have crushed the TD (and passing yards) record if he played as late into blowouts and the season as Brady did.

Last week of Picks

2007-12-28T12:01:00.000-08:00

45/63 (71.4%) posted record so far. For the full season 156/240 (65%), so I need only two correct picks to top last season. Of ESPNs experts Hodge, Jaworski and Schlereth have better records, Hodge and Schlereth are within reach but Jaworski ran away from the competition. Matching my 156 correct picks without picking any of the Monday Night Football games (since he was announcing them). Schlereth earned my respect last year by being the first commentator to mention excellent and more run oriented D-line play as a reason for the Colts run D improving in the playoffs (though it took him until just before the AFC Championship game). Most other theories revolved around the players being sick of hearing they were bad or it being a fluke. So I can deal with Schlereth beating me he is better than most at ESPN.
It's also not a surprise that the two ESPN commentators whose jobs are focused on watching and breaking down game film did very well in determining pick team would win. Watching the games actually helps? I thought you just had to watch ESPN to have them tell you which teams are good.
Beating even Jaworski was Brian Burke at bbnflstats.com using a statistical model he explains here. He is at 69.8% for the year. On to my picks.

NE @ NYG I hope the Giants put up a fight. The "Tom Brady-Randy Moss lob deep balls every play to get the NFL TD records" show didn't even fly vs the Dolphins the Giants have got to be stop that from happening. I've beat the "Brady needs more attempts/games/completions to tie the record than Manning took to set it" line into the ground so I'll lay off it a while. If (probably when) he ties the record I'll do a full write up (rant).

SEA @ ATL Who is the better team when the good team is resting starters? Hard question but the Falcons are so bad and "resting" Shaun Alexander probably helps the Seahawks chances.

NO @ CHI The Bears have pretty well proven they can beat the Packers, but somehow this hasn't translated into beating anyone else.

DET @ GB Don't make fun of Jon Kitna too much. If you had been sacked 111 times in the last two years you'd say some crazy shit too.

CIN @ MIA Carson Palmer has thrown a career high INTs and career low yards per completion along with the least TDs and yards per attempt since his rookie season. All while being sacked less times than ever. Definitely a step back for a guy who was considered the best QB not named Peyton Manning or Tom Brady going into the season (maybe Brees too)

JAC @ HOU The Jags are very good but the Colts have beat them twice now. That is getting lost in the hype building around them from reporters whose jaws are too sore to continue blowing the Pats and wouldn't touch the "boring" Colts with a ten foot pole.

CAR @ TB The Bucs sat starters very early last week (like I hoped) they are probably going to do it again but I'm refusing to think myself in knots figuring out what will happen if they do sit starters. Just taking the better team.

BUF @ PHI Bills lost their stud LT to injury. Colts fans know how this hurts an offense and when you have Trent Edwards instead of Peyton Manning you can't afford that kind of lost production.

SF @ CLE
-I come up off the bench and put points up on the scoreboard-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I start as third string and outplay two top ten picks-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I score three TDs for every interception
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I take a top 3 Pats Pick and put it into the teens-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

Put it to this beat

PIT @ BAL The Steelers might be better off with the Dump Truck. His FO stats are way better than Parkers. Only time will tell.

SD @ OAK Raiders will get stomped by a good running team again

DAL @ WAS Dallas has got to be sitting/pulling starters and the Redskins are good enough to take advantage. Don't bother pointing out this goes again what I said above about the Panthers game, I already know.

STL @ ARI The game I'm looking forward two this week, for sure. Never trust the Cardnals is the ironclad rule helping me with this pick.

MIN @ DEN Purple Jesus will finally run free against the awful Denver run D.

KC @ NYJ Oh, God. Why do they even bother playing this one. Um the Jets?

TEN @ IND Sorgi time is a merry time of year.

Lookin' Good

2007-12-26T22:35:00.000-08:00

Colts have done something that has only been done three times in NFL history and all three of those previous teams have gone on to win the Superbowl. They are the forth team ever to win the Superbowl and go on to win more games the following year. 1975 Steelers, 1989 49ers and 1998 Broncos were the first 3, all repeated as champs. (Thanks for another awesome bit of football knowledge, Football Outsiders)

Colts have another game with little meaning remaining on the schedule and a bye week to get healthy before the playoffs. I'm hoping for a few series up to a half from the 1st teams then sit them. Get Well Soon, Robert Mathis, Ryan Diem, Antoine Bethea, Josh Thomas, Marvin Harrison, Raheem Brock, Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez Dwight Freeney (for next season) and everyone I've missed.

Picks were an awesome 12 of 16 (75%). Maybe I'm lucky, maybe it's been an easy few weeks to pick, but I'm patting myself on the back for these last couple weeks anyway.

Sunday Recap

2007-12-23T20:43:00.000-08:00

The Texans scored the first and the last touchdowns, but that was all for them. Between the Texans two touchdowns the Colts put up 38 points all scored in the first 3 quarters, before the starters were pulled. Minus the hopefully minor injury to Addai this game couldn't have gone any better. The offense was clicking, the D was strong, allowing only 7 points until the Texans scored in the final minute against the backups. Even the special teams play was only below average instead of awful. If Addai is ok and I'd guess that he is since he returned after his injury long enough for a powerful TD run up the middle, then the game was a total success.

Tom Brady continues to throw lots of passes and throw most of them very well. He now has 536 attempts, completing 366 for 68.3% completions, 4450 yards, 48 TDs and 8 INTs. At the end of his record breaking 2004 season Peyton Manning had thrown 39 less passes, completed the same number (336), for a completion % 0.7% lower, 107 more yards, one more, TD and two more INTs. Tom Brady has a very good chance of tying and breaking Manning's TD record, but to do it he will have had to have thrown the ball over 40 more times, and will have needed more completions and games than Manning did. Brady is great, but this season is far from proof that he is better than Manning.

In what little of the Pats-Dolphins blowout I could stand to watch I saw Brady throw a ball to a receiver running up the sideline which flew directly between the Dolphins safety's hands as he jumped in front for the easy pick and into Gaffney's hands for Brady's 48th TD . The announcers then praised Brady's arm strength for 5 straight minutes before even mentioning how unbelievably lucky he was to not have it picked off. Absolutely Ridiculous.

The Shaun Hill led Niners continued to give the Pats a big "F YOU" with another win today. Now the highest the 1st round pick obtained by the Pats can be is 4th and the lowest 14th. If the season ended today it would be the 8th. Keep on climbing Niners!

Kyle Orton completed a higher % of his passes for a higher yards per attempt and per completion and threw more TDs. Favre did have two more gun-slings.

Picks were 11 of 15 and the Chargers over the Broncos pick won't have me worried.

Week 16 Picks

2007-12-22T10:03:00.000-08:00

Steelers won to get the week off to a good start. Willie Parker's injury is unfortunate, but it allows Najeh "The Dump Truck" Davenport to take over the featured role in Pittsburgh. If you aren't familiar with the nickname or the story behind it you are missing out. I'm not sure if all the details ever came out, if they did someone please tell me, but the name refers to an incident while Davenport was at the University of Miami. Again, I don't know the full story but it ends with him dropping a deuce in a female student's laundry hamper. Link.

Already took the Cowboys for tonight. Sounds like Romo is good to go so I'm not worried about that one.

Bengals @ Browns Bengals=bad

Cheifs @ Lions Cheifs=bad

Texans @ Colts All I want to see in this game is no more injuries and the offense getting on track. Nothing else matters.
Packers @ Bears Come on, Bring Grossman back. Lovie, your QB will suck no matter which one you pick so at least let him fail spectacularly.

Giants @ Bills I really want the Giants to play their starters next week. If the Pats get to cruise to 16-0 against the Giants second stringers I'll be sad. Come on someone take them down. The hype is painfully obnoxious. Go Bills

Raiders @ Jags Now I really know how bad Garrard got robbed he's had this great season all while working a second job and it's a second job that ain't easy.

Eagles @ Saints FO has a nice piece about how amazingly awful Jason David has been in the Saints scheme. Putting a below average corner from a zone D into a man defense? Great Idea.

Bucs @ Niners Bucs have clinched their division and can't earn a 1st round bye so maybe it's time to ease off the gas and let some more Shaun Hill magic kill the Pats draft position.

Falcons @ Cardnals I don't think it's possible for the Falcons to go any lower. Even getting blown out by the Cardnals would just be a sideways move.

Dolphins @ Pats The Jets couldn't pull it off and the Dolphins got a win, so the best scenario for the Pats first loss is vs Colts in the AFC Championship. Still, Go Dolphins.

Ravens @ Seahawks The Ravens are chasing the Falcons to the bottom and the Seahawks were awful last week, but the Ravens clearly suck more.

Jets @ Titans I don't say many nice things about Vince Young but he does throw a better deep ball than Chad Pennington.

Redskins @ Vikings Even Tarvaris Jackson transforming back into the guy who could barely complete half his passes playing D2 football can't stop Purple Jesus.

Broncos @ Chargers Even Norv Turner can't turn a 13+ win team into one that misses the playoffs, you need Brian Billick for that.

more NFLN games trying to sneak past me

2007-12-20T14:51:00.000-08:00

Steelers and Cowboys

More quick stuff

2007-12-18T19:23:00.000-08:00

Colts win an ugly game. I was very happy with the defense, but the offense, especially the running game worried me. They can't think about resting most of the offense until they are in sync. The win locks up the #2 seed along with a 5th straight AFC South title and a NFL record 5th straight 12+ win season for the Colts.

Colts move up to #2 in DVOA and back into the top 10 highest DVOAs ever measured. If this team had been as healthy as 2004/2005 they would be the best Colts team ever.

Miami actually won. Football Outsiders had been saying they aren't that bad for a while now, but I hoped for history anyway.

Picks were 10 of 16. Not bad, after two great weeks picking a worse one was coming. This was about the normal week I've had picking before I started posting, 62.5% this week, 61.3% last season and 62.7% unposted this season. This week brings my posted record to 33/47 (70.2%) awesome.

Ben Utecht's catch % took a little fall from an amazing 88% to a still outstanding 83%. He's an Restricted Free Agent after the season. I'm hoping the Colts at least give him a Jason David like offer. 4th round tender, he'll either be back for cheap or Colts get another pick and with Polian doing the drafting a 4th rounder is a pretty good bet to be good.

Tom Brady did not throw 4 TDs in 21 or less attempts, actually he threw none. Meaning if he does break the TD record it will have taken him more attempts to do so than Manning needed. Counting his touchdowns before they're scored, anyone? Brady needs 3 TD passes in his next 61 to match the 564 passes that Dan Marino threw to set the TD record at 48.

And finally thanks to Big Blue Shoe at the awesome Colts blog Stampede Blue for (accidentally?) coming up with a better blog name. Dropped a "N" out of there, sounds better and it might be how everyone but me read it as.
Shaken-N-Baken----> Shake-n-Baken

2008 Pro Bowl

2007-12-18T17:36:00.000-08:00

Pro Bowlers have been announced, so it's time for everyone who follows the NFL to talk about snubs. Who is coasting off their reputation? Which emerging players got the shaft? Who rode a wave of hype to Hawaii?

I'll start with a comparison between the QBs/RBs selected and who I thought deserved it last week.

NFC QBs
My picks: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck
08 Pro Bowlers: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck
Good job, Pro Bowl voters.

AFC QBs
My picks: Manning, Brady, Garrard
08 Pro Bowlers: Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger
I think Garrard deserved it more, but it's hard to argue with Roethlisberger's production behind that awful O-line. Awesome post from FO's open thread for the afternoon games, "BRoeth has been sacked 5 times so far, which would be 15 for a normal human and 25 for Byron Leftwich."

NFC RBs
My Picks: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
08 Pro Bowlers: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
Even deciding Pro Bowlers is easier in the NFC

AFC RBs
My Picks: LdT, Addai, and a halfhearted vote for Justin Fargas
08 Pro Bowlers: LdT, Addai and Willie "negative yards or a TD" Parker
Even with how ineffective Parkers running has been I wouldn't expect voters to ignore the yardage total. If everyone was that smart it would be average instead of smart. Fred Taylor has been getting a lot of mention as a snub. He deserves some of it because he was close to deserving in my opinion, but Addai and LdT were clearly better backs as shown by their DPAR, DVOA and success rates.

Nearly all of the players I talked about deserving the spot were voted in and the 2 that weren't were the two I was least sure about.

At AFC receiver Welker and Chad Johnson have been sited as snubs and rightfully so, both have a higher DPAR and DVOA than Houshmandzadeh and Braylon Edwards. Welker has higher catch %s than any of the receivers that made it. Housh and Braylon were worse choices than the 2 snubs. Moss and Wayne have been the top WRs in the NFL this year. Welker has put up his big numbers in large part because of the offense/scheme around him but it's hard to discount that much production. Chad Johnson's catch % (59%) is a little below what I'd like to see from a top WR but Edward's is ugly (53%). Andre Johnson and Santonio Holmes have both been extremely effective when they've played, but don't have the raw numbers.

In the NFC Colston and Jennings have been mentioned as snubs. Colston should have made it for sure, 1000 yards, 9TDs with a 70% catch rate for the 4th best DPAR. Jennings doesn't have the yards of the other guys, but gets into the endzone a lot and catches a respectable % of passes his way. Both Fitzgerald and Housh have benefited from a lot of passes to them, Housh leads the league in targets, Fitz is just behind Housh and Chad Johnson for third in the league.
Engram of the Seahawks hasn't gotten much press at all but he has 1000 yards with a 70% catch rate. Only Engram and Welker have over 700 yards with a catch % over 70. Only Welker, Anthony Gonzalez and Ike Hillard have had at least 45 passes thrown to them and caught a higher % of them. I'd go with T.O. (even with the drops, worst catch % in the top 14 of DPAR), Colston, Driver and Engram.

The tight end and fullback choices were fine. I would have liked to have seen Clark, but his hands are officially worrying me (55% catch rate). If he keeps dropping balls Manning's inner child will be whispering "Gonzalez" and Clark will be headed elsewhere in the offseason.

On the O-line I can say that Jonathan Odgen made it on rep alone without even knowing how well he's played, because he hasn't played in 6 of his teams 14 games. A guy that had missed more than half his teams games at the time voting was going on should not be voted in. Allen Faneca is part of a horrible O-line in Pittsburgh, it might not be his fault but he has a recognizable name at a position where that's the main criteria for a Pro Bowl nod.

The NFC defense looks good enough, though I'm sure there are probably some great guys left off. Sean Taylor is the starting FS, classy, they should recognize him with the "missing man" D like the Redskins did.

Allen and Vanden Bosch have been great at DE, the spot vacated by Freeney goes to Jason Taylor. Definitely a choice influenced by reputation but he's still a top DE. I'd have gone with Mario Williams. The Media and Public really owe him an apology. He's been great this year. If he was going against Charlie Johnson Sunday I would want Peyton to handoff on the first play and sit the rest of the game (he plays on the defensive right, right? I sure hope so).

AFC middle linebacker is where I have a problem. Ray Lewis has only one more solo tackle (way to jump on that pile for the assist RayRay) than Gary Brackett who has two more picks and has caused several more with tips. As the MLB in the Tampa-2 he has the most difficult coverage assignment of any LB. He's has to cover deep between the safeties. That's the realm of the freakish TEs and far more territory and open space than most LBs can handle. When he isn't making the Tampa 2 and "Tampa" 2 he is spying on mobile QBs or playing close on elite TEs like Antonio Gates (3 catches for 26 yards vs Colts). Ray Lewis is a member of the top run D (by DVOA), Brackett of the top Pass D, but how well do they do at the other element? Colts run D 10th, Ravens 24th. Overall the Colts are the second best defense in the league, Ravens 8th. Brackett should be going.

AFC safeties are the big three names Ed Reed, Polamalu and Sanders, sounds right.

Decent job overall Brackett is the only omission that really bothers me.
And remember arguing about who goes to the Pro Bowl is far more interesting than the actual game, so don't just write it off as not mattering because the Pro Bowl sucks. The Pro Bowl would be completely pointless if we couldn't argue about who goes.

Week 15 Picks

2007-12-15T21:20:00.000-08:00

1 of 2 on the NFL Network games. I'll take it when it hurts the Pats draft position. Go Niners. If the 49ers win out with Shaun Hill he is my hero. 21 for 28 for 7 yards per attempt, a TD and no picks passing with a rushing TD thrown in. That's awesome. It's against the Bengals D, but he put up almost the exact same stat line last week against the Vikings. I didn't know he played well last week. Everyone was too busy making who the hell is Shaun Hill jokes (if I would have put any analysis into that game I would probably be guilty as well) to mention that he played far better than you could ever expect from a third string QB that enters mid-game because of an injury.
Go Niners, keep the Pat's dirty cheating hands off of a top 5 pick.

Time for the Sunday picks (getting them in tonight in case I oversleep).

Titans at Cheifs: When you get blown out by the Broncos you suck. When Vince Young is your Quarterback you also suck, but not as much.

Ravens at Dolphins: The Ravens are perfectly capable of losing to the Dolphins, but they can't because the Dolphins first win with be against the Pats and it will be the greatest moment in football history. You will be able to hear the heads of every smug Patriots fan exploding from across the country. (Not really though. About the Dolphins winning, not the exploding heads, that one would actually happen).

Patriots at Jets: My rank how awesome/hilarious the Pats losing their first game to would be. 1. Dolphins, 14-0 losing to 0-14. 2. Colts in the AFC championship, preferably with another game ending INT from Mr. Super Clutch. 3. Jets this week. "You cheated got what you deserved, stop crying like a little bitch about it."-Mangini after Belichick blows of the postgame handshake.

Bills at Browns: "Who'd after though this one would have playoff implicationts ROFL LOL!!!!!!1111!!111!!. -Everyone I hate

Seahawks at Panthers: {Insert "Vinny Testaverde is old" joke here} because it's the only interesting thing to say about the Panthers.
The Seahawks are looking better now that they've started to realize Shaun Alexander is washed up and adjusted. It only took them half the season.

Cardnals at Saints: How did no one see the Saints collapse coming? Their big defensive upgrade was Jason David. The Cardnals aren't good either so I had no real opinion. DVOA Says, the Saints.

Falcons at Bucs: Tampa Bay is still very good very quietly. I don't blame Petrino for fleeing the disaster that the Falcons are but the way he did it was the problem. He saw a way out and bailed about as fast as humanly possible.

Packers at Rams: Rams suck, I'm sleepy, more on this shitty matchup tomorrow or never.

Jags at Steelers: They lost to the Pats, but so has everyone. Jags are dangerous, but Pittsburgh is still the 3rd best team in the AFC. If the Steelers lose the Colts can clinch the 2 seed and first round bye with a win.

Colts at Raiders: I'm really surprised to hear so many people saying this is where JaMarcus should get his first start. Really? Against the number one pass defense? Against a team who's offense should put them behind quickly and keep them there? If your not putting the top pick in at the start of the season and hoping they can making it through without suffering irreparable emotional and physical damage (Peyton made it, David Carr however) then why throw them in a bad matchup. You've waited 14 weeks one more won't kill you.

Chargers
Cowboys
Vikings
Sleep

Quarterback Intangibles

2007-12-14T19:20:00.000-08:00

There is no phrase used in NFL analysis that pisses me off faster than "Intangibles". "This QB has great intangibles" what does that mean and how do you know? Normally people talking about intangibles ramble on about what a great person the QB is and how hard he works and how tough and competitive he is. Of course he's hardworking, tough and competitive, he's one of the an elite few that have reached the top of his profession in one of the purest meritocracies you'll ever find. A NFL QB is one of less than 100 of the best of the best, a starter is one of the top 32, a QB that is considered good or even great is one of only a handful of people out of billions that can play the position to it's fullest. No one reaches that level without being extraordinarily gifted, hardworking, tough and competitive.

If something is intangible by definition it can't be perceived, realized or defined. How can someone know that a QB has intangibles if they can't be perceived, realized or defined. Ignoring the misuse of the word and defining it by context I understand it to mean "things that aren't measured by statistics". I'm sure that somethings a QB does aren't defined in his statistics. The NFL doesn't keep a stat for competitiveness or hours of gamefilm study. They don't need to because all of those things help a QB play better and the QB's statistics will show the improvement. If a QB is liked and respected by his teammates and this makes them play harder wouldn't that mean the QB is able to complete more passes for more yards and throw more TDs. Most things sited as intangibles are part of what creates the tangibles (stats). Adding in those intangibles on top of the stats gives more credit on top of what those intangibles have accomplished. It makes as much sense as randomly picking QBs and saying their yards count double.

I'm sure there are subtle things that a QB does that improve his team that don't get measured in his statistics. Things that are noticed by people that are with them throughout the season and can sense the subtle positives that the QB contributes. I don't doubt that this happens, but how does a guy sitting watching the game see this, whether it's from the stands, the couch or Bristol Connecticut. Even if you do spend time with a QB in his locker room and pick up on his "intangibles" how do they compare them to the rest of the league. I've never heard of a ESPN intangibles specialist who just chills in every locker room in the league and senses which QBs have great intangibles (I call that job). Do they have an intangibles meter that they can walk around with or just hold up to the QB in question.

So what are the intangibles that sports analysis always talk about? They aren't measured by stats, but can be determined by just feel. How does that QB feel to you? Does he make you all warm and fuzzy inside?
That's the basis of intangibles. How the QB seems to you through the TV. When you look at the stats and watch his teams performance you just feel that the QB is better or worse than what the numbers tell you? Do you know what that's called? It's called personal bias.
"Those numbers can't be right. When I watch I see how great (or awful) he is. The stats disagree. There's obviously something missing here."
Yes, there is. It's called limited experience (you don't see every play) and selective perception (even if you do you don't remember all of them). You base your opinion on what you remember and the conclusions you reached from that (or on which plays you saw agree if the opinion you already have). When the stats disagree it's because they see everything and remember everything within that stats scope. Quarterback Intangibles is what analysis use to describe and allow them to include their personal biases, whether they realize it or not.

NFLN picks

2007-12-13T14:59:00.000-08:00

Texans (tonight) and Bengals (Saturday)

Pro Bowl Voting closed, picks, pats

2007-12-11T11:30:00.000-08:00

Really? After 13 games. That sucks. I didn't know that. And I thought that opening the voting as early as they do was the big problem with how it was set up. Starting the voting before mid-season and ending it before the season ends guarantees it will be a popularity contest. Do it right or take away the fan's vote. Allow voting over the last few weeks of the season and end it when the regular season does. Probowlers are announced a week from today. I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about them.

12 0f 16 on the picks, bringing by posted record to 23 of 31 (74.1%) Not too bad.

If Tom Brady doesn't throw the 4 TD passes he needs to tie the single season record in his next 21 attempts, it will have taken him more passes to tie the record than it took Peyton to set it. Brady is having an amazing season by any measure, but the raw (huge) numbers are less impressive when you consider the number of attempts he's taking to get there. He's thrown for 4095 yards and 45 TDs in 476 attempts. In Manning's record breaking 2004 season he threw for 4557 yards and 49 TDs in 497 attempts.
Brady is throwing the ball very well, he's also throwing it a lot. 36.6 attempts a game.

The least homerish Pro Bowl ballot I'll fill out this year Part 1

2007-12-10T11:06:00.000-08:00

I've done one or two already (what is it they allow, like 25?), but I'm really going to take a look at who deserves it instead taking the obvious picks plus almost every Colt on the ballot and rounding out the ballot with a few guesses. Please, feel free to disagree and tell me why another guy deserves it more, I'm listening and have 20 some ballots left.

AFC QB:
Easy decisions : Peyton, Brady
3rd QB candidates: Anderson, Garrard, Roethlisberger, Palmer
Arguments: Palmer has the most yards, but also the most INTs. Roethlisberger has the best yards per attempt, completion % and is tied with Anderson for the most TDs. Garrard has the least INTs by far. FO's DPAR (as of last week) has them ranked Anderson, Palmer, Garrard with Big Ben behind Cutler for 7th in the AFC, but he's played well behind an awful line and is under constant pressure. Garrard is hurt by his missed time, but DVOA has him as the 2nd best QB in the NFL per play. After watching him against the Colts last week, he earned my respect and now he gets my vote.
My Votes: Peyton, Brady, Garrard

NFC QB
Easy decisions : Romo, Favre
3rd QB candidates: Kitna, Hasselbeck, Brees
Arguments: Kitna has the most yards and yards per attempt. Hasselbeck has thrown the most TDs and the least picks. Brees has the highest completion %, but the most picks and is throwing tons of short stuff (very low yards per attempt) Bress's high completion % with bad yards per attempt and INTs reminds me a bit of Carr and Frye last year, but Bress isn't facing the kind of pressure those bad QBs did (tied for the least sacks of any qualifying QB). DPAR likes Brees by a decent amount and he has the best DVOA by a smaller margin. FO's stats also like Garcia. They don't like Kitna. I like my QBs to not turn the ball over and not remind me of two washed up QBs, it's Hasselbeck.
My Votes: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck

AFC RB
Easy Choices: Addai, Tomlison
Why?: The Top 2 backs in the AFC in rushing TDs and DPAR, neither has fumbled. Addai is only averaging 4.1 a carry but has one of the top success rates in the league. Meaning he's consistently moving the Colts towards first downs and his per carry average is likely hurt by many (successful) 3rd and short carries.
3rd RB Candidates: Parker, McGahee, Justin Fargas, Fred Taylor,
Arguments: Parker is leading the league in rushing, but he's averaging only 4 yards a carry and is exactly the perfect example of a "boom or bust" back (he breaks big runs, but is stopped for little yardage a ton, making sustaining a drive very hard for his team). DPAR and DVOA hate him, with all the passion a computer model can possibly hate with. He's ranked in the 40s of backs with 75 or more rushes. His four fumbles and bad success rate are the reason. McGahee is 2nd in the AFC in yards and has 7 TDs, but he has a poor success rate to go with his mediocre 4.2YPC. Fargas came out of nowhere to become the key to the Raiders (bad) offense, 920 yards, 4.7 a carry, decent success rate, Justin Fargas a surprisingly decent choice. Fred Taylor, high YPC + bad success rate="boom and bust" or garbage yards (gain of 12 on a 3rd and 16 draw, etc). Ronnie Brown was tearing it up before his injury and would have made this ugly debate moot if he had stayed healthy.
My Votes: Addai, LdT, and Fargas I guess.

NFC RB
Easy Choices: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
Why?: Marion Barber III (aka MB3, my 2nd favorite nickname in the NFL) is 3rd in the NFC in DPAR and averaging 5 yards per carry with 7 rushing TDs. Westbrook leds the NFL in Rushing DPAR and all RBs in Receiving DPAR. 2nd in rushing yards, 4.7 a carry on the conventional stat side. 1,200 yards, 109 per game, 6.1 per carry 10TDs, 2nd in DPAR, 1st in DVOA, bow before Purple Jesus.
Arguable: Brandon Jacobs, awesome success rate, 4.9 a carry.
My Votes: Westbrook, MB3, Purple Jesus

That's all for today. More in the next few days.

Recapping Sunday

2007-12-10T10:28:00.000-08:00

The Colts are finally getting healthy and back to their normally elite level of play. They just destroyed the Ravens. Missed most of the game because I was at work, so I'll talk about the only play that I saw that really stood out, along with the stats and recaps I've seen so far.

Anthony Gonzalez's first NFL TD. Sick double move on the Raven's backup CB. They gave Gonzo over 10 yards of cushion and he sold the comeback route so well that the corner bit hard and fell over when AG turned it back upfield. Awesome route running and great speed from the rookie. It took Reggie Wayne until his 3rd year to get all the way into the offense. Gonzalez has already topped Wayne's rookie season in two less games and the current Colts offense is at least, probably more, complex than when Reggie had to learn it.

Congrats to the best QB in the NFL for his 300th TD pass, now 4th on the all-time list.

Great game by the Colts in every aspect of the game (except kick coverage, Fire Russ Purnell). No turnovers or sacks on offense. 5 turnovers forced and no points allowed until garbage time on defense. Gary Brackett needs to be doing his hula dance in Hawaii (I'll accept Glendale, AZ too) in February. I'm going here to vote for him right now.

11 for 15 on the picks, nice week already. Thought about changing the Rams-Bengals pick when I found out Brock Berlin was starting, but I decided I had balls and won't ever change a pick once it's posted. That was kind of dumb. I'll keep the no changing rule for sure but, no more Sunday picks on Thursday.

Ben Utecht

2007-12-07T18:57:00.000-08:00

Tight end Ben Utecht hasn't been a favorite of Colts fans this season, myself included. After to Charlie Johnson and Aaron Moorehead I can't think of a player that has been criticized more by Colts fans, but has he gotten a fair assessment? I'll take a look.

The inspiration for the re-examination of Utecht came from one of by favorite sites and home of the best football analysis on the internet, Football Outsiders. A few days ago I stumbled onto this stat: Ben Utecht has caught 86% of the passes thrown to him. That's outstanding. That is the best % of any Tight End or Wide Receiver with more than 10 passes thrown to them (he has 28 targets). The great hands he has displayed this season has gone nearly unnoticed. That's good enough for the 6th best DVOA (value per-play) of all Tight Ends so far this year. It's not just short stuff either. He's averaging 11.2 yards per reception.
Is this a fluke? It's possible, but last season Utecht showed a similar tendency to catch the ball, bringing in 37 of the 53 (70%) passes thrown his way (stat from Pro Football Prospectus 2007). He's always been a good blocker and has kept Bryan Fletcher sitting on the bench nearly all year.
The knock on him this year has been fumbles. I was again shocked when I turned to the stats. He only fumbled twice. Two times, all season. That's not ideal, but far from the perception of him as simply unable to hold onto the ball. In his career he's fumbled 3 times, on 62 catches.

Ben Utecht, underrated, overcritized.

Week 14 Picks

2007-12-06T13:15:00.000-08:00

NFL network game tonight Bears-Redskins. Have to get that pick in tonight so I'll just do all of them for the week.

CHI @ WAS It's been months since we've seen "Bad" Rex. Will he be back this week? Maybe not, but do I trust him not to start unleashing the dragon? Hell no. I'll take the Redskins.

CAR @ JAC The Jags are very good. The Panthers aren't. It's that simple.

MIA @ BUF When you get blown out by the Jets you are not just a bad team, you are the worst team by far.

SD @ TEN The Chargers could blow the Titans out if they played as well as they have at times this year, but do I trust them to play well? Only about as far as I could throw Jamal Williams.

TB @ HOU A McCown brother at QB? Really? and they won? The Tampa Bay Bucs just win games.

OAK @ GB Time for the Aaron Rodgers era? I hope so just to end the sportswriters-Brett Favre orgy that's been going on for years and intensified to epic proportions with his surprise return from the land of the old washed up QBs. If he does start how many gunslings you think he'll throw? More than last weeks two?

DAL @ DET Everyone laughed at Kitna's 10 win prediction. I'm still laughing.

NYG @ PHI Was Eli adopted? The Eagles better hope so. The Giants won't blow this one.

STL @ CIN Steven Jackson is a beast. Now that he's finally back healthy the Rams are looking less bad than usual. Bulger is cleared so their good offense is back together. Football Outsiders' DVOA has a seemingly irrational love for the Bengals right now. Not letting it scare me off and will feel dumb when the Rams lose, but they're the pick.

MIN @ SF " ... and on the third week he rose" Three weeks after a minor knee sidelined him, Purple Jesus returned. Tavaris suddenly looks like a real QB, I'm shocked. If he's legit the Vikings are as scary as any team in the NFC.

ARI @ SEA Seahawks looked good last week. The Cardnals won on a questionable final call while losing their stud WRs to injury. Easy pick.

KC @ DEN I didn't think the Broncos were good last week, but I thought they could beat the Raiders. Not anymore. I officially declare the Broncos to suck.

PIT @ NE The only thing more obnoxious than guaranteeing a win is constantly whining about lack of respect. Looking at you HGHarrison. GO STEELERS!

CLE @ NYJ I'm writing last week's loss for Cleveland off. Steelers lost to the Cards too, weird things happen in the desert.

IND @ BAL I hate the Ravens so much for blowing the game. I hope the Colts crush them.
Reggie will call you "Boy" all he wants after his torches your ass Mr. McAllister.

NO @ ATL Signs of life from both teams last week. Only the Falcons did it using Chris Redman at QB. I don't know what to think about that.

How many ways can the Ravens give the Pats a win

2007-12-03T21:01:00.000-08:00

- Go 3 and out on the 3 drives they had the lead in the fourth quarter.

-Pass the ball on 3rd and 1. The exact same shit Ravens players were calling Billick out for earlier this season.

-Stop on 4th and 1 negated by a Ravens timeout

-Stop on 4th and 1 Pats false start lets them replay the down (Why can't they decline the penalty? The Pats were short of the first).

-4th and 6, #28 puts his hands on Ben Watson (ticky-tack, but not too ridiculous to call) when he's still in good position and has help behind him and to the sides. First down Pats.

-Bart Scott completely loses his mind and costs the Ravens 30 yards of field position. His dumb ass was still jawing and trying to go after the ref that flagged him, he had to be dragged away by teammates. He broke away from his teammates multiple times and moved towards the ref when loose. Total Moron.

-Boller throws a pass down the middle of the field, far short of the TD, with 10 seconds left and no timeouts. The pass hits Pats DB Brandon Meriweather in the chest.

-Hail Mary comes up a yard short

-Ravens WR commits blatant Offensive pass interference on the Hail Mary, against a DB that was in worse position than the WR who caught it. So the pass shouldn't have counted even if he had made it into the endzone.

As a consolation prize, that puts my picks at 11 for 15 in my first posted week and my quick calculations have my fantasy team winning by 2.81 points.

Sunday Recap/Monday Preview

2007-12-03T15:49:00.000-08:00

3 for 5 on the late game picks. Should it have been 4 for 5 with extra 8 fantasy point for me from Kellen Winslow?

I think so. Even with two defenders on his back he gets one foot in. Oh well, Winslow is an asshole, so maybe it's karma.

The makes me 10 for 14 on my first posted picks with the only pending pick Pats over Ravens.

Tonight I'm hoping for:

-Ravens pull the upset, the myth of Patriots invincibility dies forever.

-Brady and Gostkowski outscore Vrabel and Maroney by more than 14 fantasy points to lock up a playoff spot for my fantasy team. Preferably with Brady playing poorly, marking the beginning of the end of his run at the greatest QB season ever.

Good Luck, Ravens
Go Gostkowski

Colts win

2007-12-02T13:26:00.000-08:00

10-2 now, with a 2 (really 3 with the head-to-head tiebreaker) lead in the AFC south with 4 to play. A Colts win or Jags loss any time in the next month clinches the division.

Thoughts from a game I had to listen to over internet radio.

-The Jags have an offense. If Garrard was in the NFC he would get a Pro Bowl vote from me.

-Jags defense, not so much anymore

-The Jags continue to kill themselves by losing their composure and committing personal fouls in big spots.

-Colts D needs to get more pressure. Garrard had all the time he needed most of the game

-Marvin needs to get back. Blitzing Manning becomes a much better option without his best hot read.

-Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuke!!! Lawton earned his spot on the roster. Blocking, returning a kickoff, catching the damn ball (Kenton is having some trouble with that)

-I <3 Antoine Bethea. The DBs are such great hitters. Even at the nickelback spot which is the weakest on the defense, all three guys that have played there can bring the big hit.

-Go Colts get that second seed

7 for 9 on the early game picks. Can't be unhappy with that, but both picks I missed were so close. Big thanks to you A.J. Feeley and Joe Gibbs. You lost your teams the game and made my picks wrong.

NFL picks

2007-12-01T21:25:00.000-08:00

I try to pick the winners of every NFL game, usually against a friend and/or on my own. Now I'll post them here too. Obviously it doesn't count if it wasn't posted before the games start so I'm starting fresh, but this is my (worthless here) record 157/256 (61.3%) last season good enough to beat 6 of the 7 ESPN experts. 111/177 (62.7%) so far this season.

NFL Week 13 picks (pick in bold) Year To Date 0-0

GB @ DAL- doesn't count because it was yesterday. Had the Cowboys though.

SF @ CAR Niners are awful, but I'll be rooting for them because the Pats have their 1st round pick next draft and because I'm starting Frank Gore on my fantasy team.

BUF @ WAS Good game to explain how I make my picks. I pick the better team. The better team usually wins so if I can tell who is better (the hard part) I'll usually be right. It actually makes the picks easier, no messing around overthinking it with match-ups and motivations, just who is the better team? I think the Redskins are better.

HOU @ TEN Vince Young just wins games. Not really though, Titans D will get it done.

ATL @ STL Hard one. Both teams suck, neither D is impressive, and with Bulger out the QBs are both bad. So I'll take the team with a legit offensive weapon in Steven Jackson.

SEA @ PHI They played the Pats close. That puts them in a elite little group, even if they usually look terrible.

DET @ MIN The talking TV heads like calling the Lions D opportunistic. That's just another way of saying the other team gave the game away. Hail Purple Jesus.

JAC @ IND Because I always pick the team I think is better and I'm a huge Colts fan. I always think the Colts are the better team and therefore always pick the Colts. Lets go COLTS!

SD @ KC Chargers are sometimes bad, Cheifs are always bad.

NYJ @ MIA The Jets have proven they are good enough to beat a very good team when they execute well. The Dolphins haven't executed well enough to win a single game.

DEN @ OAK The most interesting thing about this game is JaMarcus Russel might play. I hope his throws the ball through the uprights from his knees at midfield. It's what they drafted him for.

CLE @ ARI For some reason the Browns became my favorite bad team last year. I thought Brady Quinn would ruin that (make me not like them, not make them not bad). Instead they're in the race for the playoffs and Quinn firmly entrenched as the backup.

TB @ NO Bucs are quietly good. The Saints are loudly mediocre.

NYG @ CHI So happy I root for the good Manning. Eli v Rexy, could be interesting.

CIN @ PIT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiTY9D674wM

NE @ BAL The only thing getting me through this Pats run and Tom Brady offensive explosion is Brady carrying my fantasy team to the playoffs.

Lets go all the teams I picked (except for the Pats and Panthers)

The Colts draft well

2007-12-01T20:14:00.000-08:00

Red=out of NFL (years in league for the players with 3+)
Black=on other teams (new team) (games this year)
Blue=on Colts roster Bold=started for the Colts this season

2007 9/9 on team 4 current starters
1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR
2 42 Tony Ugoh T
3 95 Dante Hughes CB
3 98 Quinn Pitcock DT
4 131 Brannon Condren DB
4 136 Clint Session LB
5 169 Roy Hall WR
5 173 Michael Coe CB
7 242 Keyunta Dawson DE

2006 7/7 on team 4 current starters
1 30 Joseph Addai RB
2 62 Tim Jennings CB
3 94 Freddie Keiaho LB
5 162 Michael Toudouze G
6 199 Charlie Johnson T
6 207 Antoine Bethea SS
7 238 T.J. Rushing CB

2005 5/10 on team 7/10 in league 3 current starters
1 29 Marlin Jackson DB
2 60 Kelvin Hayden DB
3 92 Vincent Burns DT
4 129 Dylan Gandy G
4 135 Matt Giordano DB
5 148 Jonathan Welsh DE
5 165 Robert Hunt(KC) C (0gp)
5 173 Tyjuan Hagler LB
6 202 Dave Rayner(KC) K (12gp)
7 243 Anthony Davis HB

2004 4/9 on team 7/9 in league 2 current starters
2 44 Bob Sanders DB
3 68 Ben Hartsock(TEN) TE (6gs)
3 69 Gilbert Gardner(TEN) LB (0)
4 107 Kendyll Pope LB
4 125 Jason David (NO) CB (8gs)
5 141 Jake Scott G
6 173 Von Hutchins(HOU) DB (10gs)
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB
7 229 David Kimball K

2003 2/8 on team 5/8 in league 2 current starters
1 24 Dallas Clark TE
2 58 Mike Doss(MIN) SS (6gp)
3 90 Donald Strickland(SF) FS (2gs, 8gp)
4 122 Steve Sciullo G
5 138 Robert Mathis DE
5 162 Keyon Whiteside LB
6 198 Cato June(TB) DB (9gs, 11gp)
6 208 Makoa Freitas T

2002 1/8 on team 4/8 in league 1 current starter
1 11 Dwight Freeney DE
2 42 Larry Tripplett(BUF) DT (11gs)
3 74 Joseph Jefferson CB (3 seasons)
4 106 David Thornton(TEN) LB (11gs)
6 182 David Pugh DT
6 183 James Lewis --
6 204 Brian Allen RB
7 220 Josh Mallard(DEN) DE (3gp)

2001 2/7 on team 4/7 in league 2 current starters
1 30 Reggie Wayne WR
2 37 Idrees Bashir(DET) FS (9gp, 1gs)
3 91 Cory Bird DB (4 seasons)
4 118 Ryan Diem G
5 152 Raymond Walls DB (5 seasons)
6 193 Jason Doering DB (3 seasons)
7 220 Rick DeMulling(WAS) G (2gp)

2000 1/7 on team 3/7 in league 1 current starter
1 28 Rob Morris LB
2 59 Marcus Washington(WAS) LB (7gp, 6gs)
3 91 David Macklin(WAS) DB (3gp)
4 122 Josh Williams DT (6 seasons)
5 138 Matt Johnson --
7 235 Rob Renes DT
7 238 Rodregis Brooks DB

1999 1/7 on team 3/7 in league 1 current starter
1 4 Edgerrin James(ARI) RB (11gs)
2 36 Mike Peterson(JAX) OLB (10gs)
3 63 Brandon Burlsworth
4 96 Paul Miranda DB
5 138 Brad Scioli DE (6seasons)
7 210 Hunter Smith P
7 250 Corey Terry DE

1998 1 on team 2/7 in league 1 current starter
1 1 Peyton Manning QB
2 32 Jerome Pathon WR (8seasons)
3 71 E.G. Green WR (3 seasons)
4 93 Steve McKinney(HOU) G (3gs)
5 135 Antony Jordan LB
7 190 Aaron Taylor G
7 231 Cory Gaines --

69 picks 51 still in NFL 28 on team 21 current starters
69 out of 51 is impressive and that's reaching back 9 seasons. The average NFL career is less than four seasons, only 5 of the 35 players drafted by the Colts in the last 4 drafts are out of the league. 8 of the 18 out of the league played at least 3 seasons. In ten years of drafting players only 1 in 7 didn't last to the league average career mark. The Colts draft well.