2008 Pro Bowl

Pro Bowlers have been announced, so it's time for everyone who follows the NFL to talk about snubs. Who is coasting off their reputation? Which emerging players got the shaft? Who rode a wave of hype to Hawaii?

I'll start with a comparison between the QBs/RBs selected and who I thought deserved it last week.

NFC QBs
My picks: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck
08 Pro Bowlers: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck
Good job, Pro Bowl voters.

AFC QBs
My picks: Manning, Brady, Garrard
08 Pro Bowlers: Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger
I think Garrard deserved it more, but it's hard to argue with Roethlisberger's production behind that awful O-line. Awesome post from FO's open thread for the afternoon games, "BRoeth has been sacked 5 times so far, which would be 15 for a normal human and 25 for Byron Leftwich."

NFC RBs
My Picks: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
08 Pro Bowlers: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
Even deciding Pro Bowlers is easier in the NFC

AFC RBs
My Picks: LdT, Addai, and a halfhearted vote for Justin Fargas
08 Pro Bowlers: LdT, Addai and Willie "negative yards or a TD" Parker
Even with how ineffective Parkers running has been I wouldn't expect voters to ignore the yardage total. If everyone was that smart it would be average instead of smart. Fred Taylor has been getting a lot of mention as a snub. He deserves some of it because he was close to deserving in my opinion, but Addai and LdT were clearly better backs as shown by their DPAR, DVOA and success rates.

Nearly all of the players I talked about deserving the spot were voted in and the 2 that weren't were the two I was least sure about.

At AFC receiver Welker and Chad Johnson have been sited as snubs and rightfully so, both have a higher DPAR and DVOA than Houshmandzadeh and Braylon Edwards. Welker has higher catch %s than any of the receivers that made it. Housh and Braylon were worse choices than the 2 snubs. Moss and Wayne have been the top WRs in the NFL this year. Welker has put up his big numbers in large part because of the offense/scheme around him but it's hard to discount that much production. Chad Johnson's catch % (59%) is a little below what I'd like to see from a top WR but Edward's is ugly (53%). Andre Johnson and Santonio Holmes have both been extremely effective when they've played, but don't have the raw numbers.

In the NFC Colston and Jennings have been mentioned as snubs. Colston should have made it for sure, 1000 yards, 9TDs with a 70% catch rate for the 4th best DPAR. Jennings doesn't have the yards of the other guys, but gets into the endzone a lot and catches a respectable % of passes his way. Both Fitzgerald and Housh have benefited from a lot of passes to them, Housh leads the league in targets, Fitz is just behind Housh and Chad Johnson for third in the league.
Engram of the Seahawks hasn't gotten much press at all but he has 1000 yards with a 70% catch rate. Only Engram and Welker have over 700 yards with a catch % over 70. Only Welker, Anthony Gonzalez and Ike Hillard have had at least 45 passes thrown to them and caught a higher % of them. I'd go with T.O. (even with the drops, worst catch % in the top 14 of DPAR), Colston, Driver and Engram.

The tight end and fullback choices were fine. I would have liked to have seen Clark, but his hands are officially worrying me (55% catch rate). If he keeps dropping balls Manning's inner child will be whispering "Gonzalez" and Clark will be headed elsewhere in the offseason.

On the O-line I can say that Jonathan Odgen made it on rep alone without even knowing how well he's played, because he hasn't played in 6 of his teams 14 games. A guy that had missed more than half his teams games at the time voting was going on should not be voted in. Allen Faneca is part of a horrible O-line in Pittsburgh, it might not be his fault but he has a recognizable name at a position where that's the main criteria for a Pro Bowl nod.

The NFC defense looks good enough, though I'm sure there are probably some great guys left off. Sean Taylor is the starting FS, classy, they should recognize him with the "missing man" D like the Redskins did.

Allen and Vanden Bosch have been great at DE, the spot vacated by Freeney goes to Jason Taylor. Definitely a choice influenced by reputation but he's still a top DE. I'd have gone with Mario Williams. The Media and Public really owe him an apology. He's been great this year. If he was going against Charlie Johnson Sunday I would want Peyton to handoff on the first play and sit the rest of the game (he plays on the defensive right, right? I sure hope so).

AFC middle linebacker is where I have a problem. Ray Lewis has only one more solo tackle (way to jump on that pile for the assist RayRay) than Gary Brackett who has two more picks and has caused several more with tips. As the MLB in the Tampa-2 he has the most difficult coverage assignment of any LB. He's has to cover deep between the safeties. That's the realm of the freakish TEs and far more territory and open space than most LBs can handle. When he isn't making the Tampa 2 and "Tampa" 2 he is spying on mobile QBs or playing close on elite TEs like Antonio Gates (3 catches for 26 yards vs Colts). Ray Lewis is a member of the top run D (by DVOA), Brackett of the top Pass D, but how well do they do at the other element? Colts run D 10th, Ravens 24th. Overall the Colts are the second best defense in the league, Ravens 8th. Brackett should be going.

AFC safeties are the big three names Ed Reed, Polamalu and Sanders, sounds right.

Decent job overall Brackett is the only omission that really bothers me.
And remember arguing about who goes to the Pro Bowl is far more interesting than the actual game, so don't just write it off as not mattering because the Pro Bowl sucks. The Pro Bowl would be completely pointless if we couldn't argue about who goes.

Pro Bowl Voting closed, picks, pats

Really? After 13 games. That sucks. I didn't know that. And I thought that opening the voting as early as they do was the big problem with how it was set up. Starting the voting before mid-season and ending it before the season ends guarantees it will be a popularity contest. Do it right or take away the fan's vote. Allow voting over the last few weeks of the season and end it when the regular season does. Probowlers are announced a week from today. I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about them.


12 0f 16 on the picks, bringing by posted record to 23 of 31 (74.1%) Not too bad.

If Tom Brady doesn't throw the 4 TD passes he needs to tie the single season record in his next 21 attempts, it will have taken him more passes to tie the record than it took Peyton to set it. Brady is having an amazing season by any measure, but the raw (huge) numbers are less impressive when you consider the number of attempts he's taking to get there. He's thrown for 4095 yards and 45 TDs in 476 attempts. In Manning's record breaking 2004 season he threw for 4557 yards and 49 TDs in 497 attempts.
Brady is throwing the ball very well, he's also throwing it a lot. 36.6 attempts a game.

The least homerish Pro Bowl ballot I'll fill out this year Part 1

I've done one or two already (what is it they allow, like 25?), but I'm really going to take a look at who deserves it instead taking the obvious picks plus almost every Colt on the ballot and rounding out the ballot with a few guesses. Please, feel free to disagree and tell me why another guy deserves it more, I'm listening and have 20 some ballots left.

AFC QB:
Easy decisions : Peyton, Brady
3rd QB candidates: Anderson, Garrard, Roethlisberger, Palmer
Arguments: Palmer has the most yards, but also the most INTs. Roethlisberger has the best yards per attempt, completion % and is tied with Anderson for the most TDs. Garrard has the least INTs by far. FO's DPAR (as of last week) has them ranked Anderson, Palmer, Garrard with Big Ben behind Cutler for 7th in the AFC, but he's played well behind an awful line and is under constant pressure. Garrard is hurt by his missed time, but DVOA has him as the 2nd best QB in the NFL per play. After watching him against the Colts last week, he earned my respect and now he gets my vote.
My Votes: Peyton, Brady, Garrard

NFC QB
Easy decisions : Romo, Favre
3rd QB candidates: Kitna, Hasselbeck, Brees
Arguments: Kitna has the most yards and yards per attempt. Hasselbeck has thrown the most TDs and the least picks. Brees has the highest completion %, but the most picks and is throwing tons of short stuff (very low yards per attempt) Bress's high completion % with bad yards per attempt and INTs reminds me a bit of Carr and Frye last year, but Bress isn't facing the kind of pressure those bad QBs did (tied for the least sacks of any qualifying QB). DPAR likes Brees by a decent amount and he has the best DVOA by a smaller margin. FO's stats also like Garcia. They don't like Kitna. I like my QBs to not turn the ball over and not remind me of two washed up QBs, it's Hasselbeck.
My Votes: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck

AFC RB
Easy Choices: Addai, Tomlison
Why?: The Top 2 backs in the AFC in rushing TDs and DPAR, neither has fumbled. Addai is only averaging 4.1 a carry but has one of the top success rates in the league. Meaning he's consistently moving the Colts towards first downs and his per carry average is likely hurt by many (successful) 3rd and short carries.
3rd RB Candidates: Parker, McGahee, Justin Fargas, Fred Taylor,
Arguments: Parker is leading the league in rushing, but he's averaging only 4 yards a carry and is exactly the perfect example of a "boom or bust" back (he breaks big runs, but is stopped for little yardage a ton, making sustaining a drive very hard for his team). DPAR and DVOA hate him, with all the passion a computer model can possibly hate with. He's ranked in the 40s of backs with 75 or more rushes. His four fumbles and bad success rate are the reason. McGahee is 2nd in the AFC in yards and has 7 TDs, but he has a poor success rate to go with his mediocre 4.2YPC. Fargas came out of nowhere to become the key to the Raiders (bad) offense, 920 yards, 4.7 a carry, decent success rate, Justin Fargas a surprisingly decent choice. Fred Taylor, high YPC + bad success rate="boom and bust" or garbage yards (gain of 12 on a 3rd and 16 draw, etc). Ronnie Brown was tearing it up before his injury and would have made this ugly debate moot if he had stayed healthy.
My Votes: Addai, LdT, and Fargas I guess.

NFC RB
Easy Choices: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
Why?: Marion Barber III (aka MB3, my 2nd favorite nickname in the NFL) is 3rd in the NFC in DPAR and averaging 5 yards per carry with 7 rushing TDs. Westbrook leds the NFL in Rushing DPAR and all RBs in Receiving DPAR. 2nd in rushing yards, 4.7 a carry on the conventional stat side. 1,200 yards, 109 per game, 6.1 per carry 10TDs, 2nd in DPAR, 1st in DVOA, bow before Purple Jesus.
Arguable: Brandon Jacobs, awesome success rate, 4.9 a carry.
My Votes: Westbrook, MB3, Purple Jesus

That's all for today. More in the next few days.