Picking Records

After the schedules come out there's always a flurry of win-loss predictions based on picking the winners of each individual game. I've always thought that was kind of dumb and subjective, even before you take into account how hard it is to now how well teams will play. Some games are obvious and would be a stunning upset others are difficult, could go either way and in my case at least are often decided in the interest making the final records turn out the way I expect them to. So last year I tried to use a method that was less dumb (but at least as if not more subjective). I ranked each game on a 1 to 7 scale:

1-I'm sure the visiting team will win
2-Visiting team probably wins
3-Leaning towards visiting team
4-No Idea
5-Leaning home
6-Probably home
7-Home wins

The games where I picked a winner I went 131-90 (59.3%) not bad, but I did pass on 25 of the hardest games to pick by giving them a 4.

To get records I averaged the my expected outcome certainty (separately for home and way since they would be opposites) and multiplied by 1.25 to get the records to fit a realistic spread, giving games above/below .500. Rounded a bit to get the records in whole games and got these:
(Exactly right, 1-2 win off, 3-4 off, 5-6 off, 7+ off)

Chargers 14-2 (3)
Colts 13-3 (0)
Patriots 12-4 (4)
Bears 12-4 (5)
Ravens 11-5 (6)
Bengals 11-5 (4)
Saints 11-5 (4)
Cowboys 11-5 (2)
Broncos 11-5 (4)
Jets 10-6 (6)
49ers 10-6 (5)
Eagles 10-6 (2)
Steelers 10-6 (0)
Jags 9-7 (2)
Giants 8-8 (2)
Rams 8-8 (5)
Seahawks 8-8 (2)
Chiefs 7-9 (3)
Panthers 7-9 (0)
Falcons 7-9 (3)
Packers 6-10 (7)
Titans 6-10 (4)
Bucs 5-11 (4)
Lions 5-11 (2)
Texans 5-11 (3)
Dolphins 5-11 (4)
Redskins 5-11 (4)
Vikings 5-11 (3)
Bills 4-12 (3)
Browns 4-12 (6)
Raiders 3-13 (1)
Cardinals 3-13 (5)

I was off by an average of 3.4 games. I didn't expect the Packers and Browns to be good, the Ravens, Bears and Jets to be bad and for some reason didn't expect the Cardinals, Rams and Niners (10-6 what was I smoking) to be mediocre. I know my Colts and apparently the Panthers, Steelers and Raiders pretty well.

The Pats and Dolphins fell outside what I thought was a reasonable spread for records, but neither of those is normal. So I'm going to leave the method the same. Starting work on predictions for the upcoming season right now, they should be up during the weekend.

(If anyone out there is interested in giving it a try e-mail me and I can send you the blank spread sheet that calculates the records from the 1-7 rankings or you could make your own system).

2008 QB Cap numbers

Something I got curious about and dug up everything I could find.

Peyton Manning 18.7 Million
Tom Brady 14.6 Million
Carson Palmer 14.0mil
Donovan McNabb 9.40mil
Chad Pennington 9.00mil
Ben Roeslesberger 5.75mil (before his new contract I think)
Matt Schaub 5.75mil
Kurt Warner 5.00mil
Matt Leinart 4.58mil
Rex Grossman 4.5mil
Jason Campbell 4.08mil
McCown (MIA) 3.25mil
J.P. Losman 3.01mil
Aaron Rodgers 1.73mil
Kellen Clemens $847,500John Beck $844,500

PatsCap has links to a ton of sites with cap info, but not all are still up or well updated.

Jerseys (AFC edition)

The other day I saw a guy walking around in a #21 Cowboys jersey and the first thing I thought was, "why would anyone want a Julius Jones jersey? He wasn't even the best runningback on his the team when he was with the Cowboys. Marion Barber is obviously the best choice for a Cowboys jersey. Julius Jones isn't even on the team now. Why would you still wear it?"

Marion Barber being an easy choice for which Cowboys jersey I would wear if I was forced to wear one, I started thinking about more teams and which jerseys I'd want the least.

Colts-Bob Sanders, hands down. The only Colts jersey I've ever since worn in Iowa. Since all the Colts fans with jerseys in my town picked Sanders I almost want to go with Clark, but Bob is just too awesome.

Runners up (in order) Clark, Harrison (pending whether he shot someone for reasons other than self-defense), Manning

Least wanted jersey, Cato June. If Aaron Moorehead, Charlie Johnson or Gilbert Gardner replica jersey existed they'd all beat out June, but June is one of the few Colts I've disliked at any point in there time with the team and has moved on to Tampa

Titans-Chris Johnson, obviously. Not sure how I'll handle him playing the Colts. My man-crush was based on the Colts getting him, so the passion's nearly gone now, but I'm still excited to see him play.

Least, Vince Young. A VY jersey is just begging someone like me to just tear into Young and start an argument. Which the jersey wearer will lose because Young isn't very good.

Jaguars-Maurice Jones Drew. Gotta like one of the handful of NFL players that are shorter than me, even if it's only by fractions of an inch.

Least-Marcus Stroud, suspended for steroids and then traded away.

Texans-Andre Johnson. The lone bright spot on their offense. Mario Williams would be a good choice as well since after the pick was bashed everywhere he's outperforming all the guys suggested as better #1 overall picks.

Least-Ahmad Green. Big free agent signing, who everyone said was washed up. Turns out they were right. Washed Up.

Bills-Jason Peters, Late rounder to star LT

least-JP Losman, when a veteran gets outplayed by a rookie, especially a guy who barely made it into the first day of the draft they suck.

Dolphins-Jake Long, It's about hope when you root for a 1-15 team.

Least-Joey Porter, loud-mouthed, overrated, overpaid

Jets-Leon Washington. A great kick returner who was overshadowed by entering the league at the same time as Hester and Cribbs.

Least-Jonathan Vilma. Square pegs being forced into round holes is frustrating.

Patriots-Since they don't make Tim Dwight replicas, none, I refuse.

Least, Brady


Browns-Josh Cribbs, nearly as good as Hester as a returner without the fumbles and painful levels of stupid.

least-Brady Quinn, no idea why I hated him (pre-crotch grabbing/slur tossing) but I do know that hating him is fun and easy now.

Steelers-Roethlesberger. That awful season following his motorcycle got the writers off of his groin region enough for me to appreciate his skills.

least-any lineman (Faneca didn't suck but left the team so he makes the list)
If I have to pick just one it's Willie Parker. He hurts the Steelers more with his busts than he helps with his booms.


Ravens-Jonathan Ogden, can't go wrong with a HOF LT. Even if Freeney does own him.

Least-Ray Lewis, sailing on reputation for years. He's an average linebacker at this point in his career, but still gets the most credit for the hugely talented D he plays on.

Bengals-Carson Palmer, there aren't enough good QBs in the league.

Least-Chad Johnson. He when from entertaining to a locker room cancer pretty fast.

Chargers-Marmalard, don't know who that is, Then "Ya betta ask somebodddaaaaaaaaayyyyyy!"

least-Phillip Rivers. What a douche.

Raiders- Can I has Tim Dwight Jersey?
No?
Ok, Nnamdi Asomugha. The best defensive player that doesn't get the hype he deserves.

Least- Moss, how do you get an awful deal when the team you're trading with is desperate to dump the guy.

Broncos- Brandon Stokley. He was actually a solid #2 last year. It's very weird to see him in another jersey, but I still like the guy.

Least- Travis Henry, wearing that jersey is a statement and not a good one.

Cheifs- Tony Gonzalez, sad that an amazing player like him is stuck through his final years on a rebuilding team.

Least- Larry Johnson, the Herm Edward has ridden him into the ground he'll never be the same back again. 400+ carries is pretty much a death sentence for a RB.

Continued Draft Board

After an impassioned speech by Bill Polian in protest of the rising value of rookie contracts and their franchise crippling effects, the 32 NFL GMs agree to allow time to expire on every pick of the first day of the draft, eliminating all of the picks in the first two rounds. As the draft's first day nears it's end and the Colts come onto the clock for the first time at #59. Polian leaps from his seat, laughing manicically with an index card in hand he reaches NFL commissioner Rodger Goodell at the Podium and hands him the card, as all the other GMs look on in stunned silence. "With the 1st pick in the NFL draft the Indianapolis Colts select..."

Who's name is on the card? Here are my best guesses;
1. Glenn Dorsey (reasoning for first five picks here)
2. Sedrick Ellis
3. Chris Long
4. Vernon Gholston
5. Jake Long

6. Keith Rivers, Phenomenal athlete with great football intelligence and size. Can cover, run stop and showed blitzing ability in limited attempts. Fast enough to run step for step with any TE. Needs a little polish in zone coverage, but has all the tools and solid ability already. Not a big hitter, but rarely misses tackles. Main concern is that he will never be an elite player, just very good for a long time. Keiaho shifts to SLB and Hagler is benched/not resigned once Rivers is ready.

7. Darren McFadden, Fumble and character concerns have me a little down on him. He's best suited for a tandem attack which he will be in with the Colts. Explosive runner with breakway speed to contrast Addai's consistent "low risk, medium reward" run style. McFadden is a receiving threat and solid blocker. His throwing ability makes gadget plays an option, but those aren't a common sight in the Colts offense. Just make sure someone remembers to leave some condoms in his locker.

8. Derrick Harvey, a top speed rusher with ok size, Harvey is compared to Dwight Freeney. He uses speed around the edge to get to the QB with regularity. He gets overpowered too much in the run game, but is improving. Pursues and tackles well. As close to cloning Freeney and sticking him on the left side as you'll find this year.

9. Jonathan Stewart, the top power back of the draft, Stewart is a massive 5'11" 235. Runs through defenders and has no fear of (actually seems to enjoy) contact. No fumble concerns. He showed soft hands on screens, but wasn't used often as a receiver otherwise. Has the tools to be a elite pass blocker, but was rarely asked to block so his ability is mostly unknown. A bit of a risk since his skills in two of the most important Colts RB traits are uncertain. He will

10. Rashard Mendenhall, a power runner with good athleticism. Mendenhall has great hands and is a experienced pass blocker, although he needs to continue improving technique in that area. The history of Big-Ten vs Pac-Ten backs broke the virtual tie. A piece I can't find now that I think was at Pro-Football-Reference.com makes a convincing case that Big Ten RBs are often overrated compared to Pac-10 backs, likely by the conferences opposite pas-run leanings (less pronounced now than traditionally, but still present). This gives the Big Ten runners large yardage totals that wrongly take precedence over running efficiently. (They also make the case for Big Ten QBs and WRs over those of the Pac 10 on the same line of reasoning).