Draft Day thoughts

1. The sole goal Polian-Dungy Colts is to be the most boring, great team of all-time.
The Mike Pollak pick is another perfect example. He's the top center prospect in the draft and can play guard. Guard is a current need and Center is a future one. Pollak is likely to be a great player for a very long time. During that long span of likely future greatness he will go mostly unnoticed and Polian and Dungy will sit back and laugh knowing that they are one step closer to their goal.

2. The Titans picked Chris Johnson because they wanted me to hate them.
My feelings towards the Titans have ranged between several degrees of apathy in my NFL watching life. Before today I would describe my feelings towards them as being like those for an annoying and slightly incompetent co-worker. You don't like being around them, you have to clean up their mess sometimes, but at least they make you look good in comparison.
Now they picked my favorite Colts target when he doesn't fit their needs at all. There is no other reason for this pick, other than to provoke feelings of hatred that would make them a legitimate rival to the Colts. They can't be a threat to the Colts AFC South dominance, so they'll up the Titans-Colts rivalry by making the Colts fans hate them.

3. Brian Brohm will be a better QB the Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the product of the ESPN hype machine being so eager to crown the next super-amazing-clutch-star-QB that they can't even wait for the guy to play in the NFL before anointing him. They took Matt Ryan, solid draft prospect with a good arm solid experience decent college production and way too many stupid picks, into "Matty Ice" Crunch Time SuperStar. Ryan threw nearly as many picks last season as Brohm did in 3 years as a starter. Brohm changed offenses as a senior and kept his stellar numbers. Completion % predicts QB success better than any other measure. Ryan is totally mediocre. Brohm is the best of this below average class.

NES 7 round mock draft with analysis on every pick

Impressive piece of work. Only one pick that I hate, I think this guy is pretty good.
http://www.newerascouting.com/top_stories/483-final-2008-mock-draft-7-rounds-with-analysis/

59. Indianapolis Colts-Chris Johnson-RB-ECU
In a year where they don’t have a first round pick, the Colts can succeed in a big way if they land a return specialist like Chris Johnson here. Johnson is electric enough to come off the board much earlier, and Indianapolis would get the type of game-changer on special teams
that they have been craving.

Yeeeeeaaaah I love it.

93. Indianapolis Colts-Philip Wheeler-LB-Georgia Tech
The Colts have what appears to be a big mess at linebacker, and if luxury player like Chris
Johnson is the pick in round two, then the Colts definitely need to get a linebacker here in the third. Wheeler can be utilized as an effective blitzer from his linebacker position, and would give the Colts a nice situational guy who should develop into a starter in a couple years.

Booooooooo, WTF are you talking about. The Colts had some injuries but are bringing back all three guys that started most of the season and a backup would was very good as a rookie. They lost Rob Morris who was a veteran stopgap and would have lost his starting job before the end of the year if he hadn't gotten hurt first. Boiman was the other loss at LB and he's a career special teams/backup. They need to add a little depth, but they have consistently found solid LBs in the late rounds.
The Colts don't blitz, the send more than 4 rushers less than any team in the NFL. The Tampa-2 is all about 4 rushing, 7 in coverage. They sent 6+ rushers once every 40 plays in 2006. Unless they're converting Wheeler to a 3rd down end his pass rushing skills will be completely wasted.
Cliff Avril should go in this spot. He's a smaller speed rushing end to backup/spell Freeney and Mathis who wear down against teams that are pass heavy (The Patriots).

127. Indianapolis Colts-Frank Okam-DT-Texas
A bit of an enigma due to his massive size and strength, Frank Okam’s stock has dropped somewhere around this area in the mid to late fourth round. Okam has the potential to be dominant with some time, so the Colts could reap major rewards on this investment over time.

The Colts have solid depth at DT, but if he pans out his quickness could make him a big improvement over Ed Johnson.
I'd rather have John Greco in this spot to prevent Charlie Johnson from being the backup at both tackle spots.

161. Indianapolis Colts-Andrew Crummey-OG-Maryland
The Colts can’t get enough people to protect franchise quarterback Peyton Manning, so another guard here in the sixth round is always a good idea. Crummey looks the part of an NFL backup at the very least, so he should stick around in the league and find a role soon enough.

OL depth is a need, but if Jack Williams drops that far the Colts have to jump on him. He's a perfect tampa two corner and a good special teams player.

196. Indianapolis Colts-Brad Cottam-TE-Tennessee
At this point in the draft, it’s not a bad idea for the Colts to look for a little bit of insurance at tight end in the likely scenario that Dallas Clark has to miss some time. Cottam has great hands and could play a similar role to Clark if he can work his way up the depth chart.

I like it. Cottam has the size and blocking ability to replace Utecht as the Colts blocking/short route TE.

201. Indianapolis Colts-Marcus Henry-WR-Kansas
Even with a short national spotlight, Kansas’ Marcus Henry really hasn’t gotten a fair shake this year heading up to the draft. Henry is a big target who is relatively unproven, but could end up being a surprise for the Colts if they hang on to him.

202. Indianapolis Colts-Jacob Hester-FB-LSU
The tough-nosed Hester would fit well in a Peyton Manning led offense, and the Colts are set to take a fullback at least at some point here in the draft. Hester isn’t the best athlete you’ll find at his position, but his heart and love of the game should fit right in with the Colts.

The Colts could use depth at WR, but FB is a bigger need since they get HB/WR Chris Johnson instead of HB/FB Matt Forte. The empty spot is used for my favorite late round player Rudolph Hardie.

205. Indianapolis Colts-Ricky Santos-QB-New Hampshire
Not that Peyton Manning is being replaced or anything, but the Colts can stand to add another backup passer with this pick. New Hampshire’s Ricky Santos is an extremely intriguing prospect, and he should at the very least benefit from working with a superstar like Peyton Manning for a few years.

I'm not a Sorgi fan, but I'd rather continue to improve the Colts awful special teams with a guy like Corey Lynch.

236. Indianapolis Colts-Kennard Cox-CB-Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s forgotten cornerback is decent value for a team like the Colts who are looking to add depth in their secondary here in the draft’s final round.

Polian loves drafting DBs even when they don't really need them, but If they pick up Jack Williams and Corey Lynch before this pick they are set. Kory Lichtensteiger could be the Colts center of the future and depth across the interior.

My draft from the guys available. (picks I completely agree with the posted draft in bold)
2. Chris Johnson
3. Cliff Avril
4. John Greco
5. Jack Williams
6a. Brad Cottam
6b. Rudolph Hardie
6c. Jacob Hester
6d. Corey Lynch
7. Kory Lichtenstegier

2nd Round Mock (I can't feel my face)

32. MIA-Brian Brohm
33. STL-Dan Conner
34. ATL-Chad Henne
35. KC-Sam Baker
36. NYJ-Quinton Groves
37. ATL-Justin King
38. BAL-Charles Godfrey
39. SF-Duane Brown
40. NO-Kentwaan Balmer
41. BUF-Brandon Flowers
42. DEN-Earl Bennet
43. CAR-Joe Flacco
44. CHI-Malcom Kelley
45. DET-Ray Rice
46. CIN-Pat Sims
47. MIN-Tyrell Johnson
48. ATL-Tracy Porter
49. PHI-Dre Moore
50. ARI-Antonie Cason
51. WAS-Early Doucet
52. TB-Andre Caldwell
53. PIT-Chilo Rachal
54. TEN-Cliff Avril
55. SEA-Chris Johnson
56. GB-Reggie Smith
57. MIA-Shawn Crable
58. JAX-Chirs Ellis
59. IND-Matt Forte
60. GB-Anthony Collins
61. DAL-Donnie Avery
62. NE-Taravis Gooden
63. NYG-Xavier Adibi

I can't feel my face (warning explicit rap music)

My Mock (1st round + Full Colts)

I've waited as long as possible to get the latest info to make this mock, but tonight is the last night before the draft where my judgment won't be clouded by sedatives and painkillers (they're ripping a few unnecessary teeth out of my head tomorrow). Here it goes.

1. MIA-Jake Long
2. STL-Chris Long
3. ATL-Glenn Dorsey
4. OAK-Sedrick Ellis
5. KC- Vernon Gholston
6. NYJ-Darren McFadden
7. NE- Brandon Albert
8. BAL-Matt Ryan
9. CIN-Keith Rivers
10. NO-Mike Jenkins
11. BUF-Devin Thomas
12. DEN-Chris Williams
13. CAR-Derrick Harvey
14. CHI-Ryan Clady
15. DET-Rashard Mendenhall
16. ARI-Leodis McKelvin
17. KC-Jeff Otah
18. HOU-Jonathan Stewart
19. PHI-Limas Sweed
20. TB- James Hardy
21. WAS- Philip Merling
22. DAL-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
23. PIT-Calais Campbell
24. TEN-DeSean Jackson
25. SEA-Martellus Bennet
26. JAX-Lawrence Jackson
27. SD-Gosder Cherilus
28. DAL-Felix Jones
29. SF-Jerod Mayo
30. GB-Fred Davis
31. NYG-Kenny Phillips

For the Colts
2. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
3. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
4. Robert Felton, OG, Arkansas
5. Carlton Powell , DT, Virgina Tech
6a. Rudolph Hardie, DE, Howard
6b. Arman Shields, WR, Richmond
6c. Doug Legurski, OC, Marshall
6d. Corey Lynch, S, App. State
7. Bernard Morris, QB Marshall


So there's your winning entries into the Stampede Blue and New Era Scouting mock draft contests.

Todd McShay's 7 round mock

2. DT-Trevor Laws
3. OG-Chilo Rachal
4. TE-Jermicheal Finley
5. RB-Justin Forsett
6a. WR-Dorien Bryant
6b. LB-Alvin Bowin
6c. DE-Wallace Gilberry
6d. S-Jonathan Hefney
7. DT-Barry Booker
full mock
With Chris Johnson gone before #59 Trevor Laws is my next favorite, so I like that.

3rd round pick on guard is too early for a position where they just need depth. Dylan Gandy has played very well while backing up the entire interior line for the Colts the last two years and Charlie Johnson is competing with him for the spot opened up by Jake Scott going to the Titans. Between the two of them they definitely have a starting quality RG. They just need depth, that is easy found and coached up to NFL caliber by Howard Mudd in the later rounds, especially on the inside.

In the third they miss on Forte, Avril and Greco, three guys I'd love to have in the third and the first two I'd take in the second if Laws was gone. Jack Williams is a perfect fit for a two two corner and could step in soon as the nickelback and replace Hayden if he isn't resigned after the season.

TE isn't a bad pick in the fourth, but they have the chance to both fill their O-line depth need and grab a successor for Jeff Saturday with Kory Lichtensteiger. Mike Hart is also there if they want a replacement for the stone handed Kenton "I don't have to listen to police since I'm a NFL player" Keith.
Marcus Howard falls further than I've ever seen and would be my choice here and maybe even in the third round since I've rarely seen him last this long in a mock.

If the Colts don't go RB earlier, Forsett is a decent pickup in the 5th, but he isn't a great Colts fit. Kellen Davis could fill the Ben Utecht, blocking and dumpoff pass TE role well.

In the sixth, I'd take Robert Felton over Dorien Bryant, Arman Shields instead of Wallace Gilberry and Marshall center Doug Legurski if they don't get Lichtensteiger.

Rudolph Hardie, one of my favorite late round players goes undrafted. I would take him in the sixth if not earlier.

My picks from who McShay has available
2. DT Trevor Laws
3. CB Jack Williams
4. RB Mike Hart (the NES guys have me a bit down on Howard and if the Colts don't get Johnson or Forte, there are many good fits left for them at RB)
5. TE Kellen Davis (Marucs Howard if he was there like in the mock, but he won't be)
6a. OG Robert Felton
6b. WR Arman Shields
6c. DE Rudolph Hardie
6d. OC Doug Legurski
7. DE Titus Brown

Continued Draft Board

After an impassioned speech by Bill Polian in protest of the rising value of rookie contracts and their franchise crippling effects, the 32 NFL GMs agree to allow time to expire on every pick of the first day of the draft, eliminating all of the picks in the first two rounds. As the draft's first day nears it's end and the Colts come onto the clock for the first time at #59. Polian leaps from his seat, laughing manicically with an index card in hand he reaches NFL commissioner Rodger Goodell at the Podium and hands him the card, as all the other GMs look on in stunned silence. "With the 1st pick in the NFL draft the Indianapolis Colts select..."

Who's name is on the card? Here are my best guesses;
1. Glenn Dorsey (reasoning for first five picks here)
2. Sedrick Ellis
3. Chris Long
4. Vernon Gholston
5. Jake Long

6. Keith Rivers, Phenomenal athlete with great football intelligence and size. Can cover, run stop and showed blitzing ability in limited attempts. Fast enough to run step for step with any TE. Needs a little polish in zone coverage, but has all the tools and solid ability already. Not a big hitter, but rarely misses tackles. Main concern is that he will never be an elite player, just very good for a long time. Keiaho shifts to SLB and Hagler is benched/not resigned once Rivers is ready.

7. Darren McFadden, Fumble and character concerns have me a little down on him. He's best suited for a tandem attack which he will be in with the Colts. Explosive runner with breakway speed to contrast Addai's consistent "low risk, medium reward" run style. McFadden is a receiving threat and solid blocker. His throwing ability makes gadget plays an option, but those aren't a common sight in the Colts offense. Just make sure someone remembers to leave some condoms in his locker.

8. Derrick Harvey, a top speed rusher with ok size, Harvey is compared to Dwight Freeney. He uses speed around the edge to get to the QB with regularity. He gets overpowered too much in the run game, but is improving. Pursues and tackles well. As close to cloning Freeney and sticking him on the left side as you'll find this year.

9. Jonathan Stewart, the top power back of the draft, Stewart is a massive 5'11" 235. Runs through defenders and has no fear of (actually seems to enjoy) contact. No fumble concerns. He showed soft hands on screens, but wasn't used often as a receiver otherwise. Has the tools to be a elite pass blocker, but was rarely asked to block so his ability is mostly unknown. A bit of a risk since his skills in two of the most important Colts RB traits are uncertain. He will

10. Rashard Mendenhall, a power runner with good athleticism. Mendenhall has great hands and is a experienced pass blocker, although he needs to continue improving technique in that area. The history of Big-Ten vs Pac-Ten backs broke the virtual tie. A piece I can't find now that I think was at Pro-Football-Reference.com makes a convincing case that Big Ten RBs are often overrated compared to Pac-10 backs, likely by the conferences opposite pas-run leanings (less pronounced now than traditionally, but still present). This gives the Big Ten runners large yardage totals that wrongly take precedence over running efficiently. (They also make the case for Big Ten QBs and WRs over those of the Pac 10 on the same line of reasoning).

Full Draft Board

There is a good chance the Colts don't get Chris Johnson, so I'm going to rank some more
players the Colts won't be able to get, but would love to draft. I'm going full on into fantasy land and starting at the top. If I was running the Colt's draft (and you can be happy that they have someone much, much better) here's what my draft board would look like.

1. Glenn Dorsey
Dorsey would be a dominating nose-tackle in the Tampa-2, Matt Miller even compares him to the original dominant Tampa-2 nose-tackle Warren Sapp. Great size with an amazing first step.

Could Be As Good As:Warren Sapp
Exceptional quickness and great short quicks. Dominates in 10-yard and under sprints.

Dorsey would not just replace the pass rushing nose-tackle they lost when McFarland blew out his knee, he would be an improvement. The best DT of the Dungy era by far. The quickness of that line would be unmatched. All four would be in the backfield before the QB could even look up.
Injuries are the only major concern for Dorsey, but he appears to be well healed from the leg injury that hampered up last season.

2. Sedrick Ellis
A little less athletic and disruptive in the passing game than Dorsey, but still an amazing player who will do all the same things, just not quite as good.

3. Chris Long
Bigger than both Freeney and Raheem Brock, and much bigger than Robert Mathis, Long could play both left end and the under tackle spot (in passing situations). He isn't an elite speed rusher, but gets to the QB just fine anyway. Drafting Long would move Robert Mathis back into a backup/3rd down rusher role, which I think is a waste, but some people like.

4. Vernon Gholston
An elite speed rusher with a variety of other moves Gholston rushes the passer better than anyone in the draft. Run defense and consistent focus are his weaknesses. Gholston would initially backup both end spots but if he improves in run defense his size would give up an advantage over Robert Mathis for a starting spot.

5. Jake Long
The likely #1 overall pick falls because tackle is not a pressing need for the Colts. His talent is too great for him to fall any lower. The main knock on him is questions of whether he can handle the left tackle spot in the pros. With Tony Ugoh locked in as the Colts franchise LT, Long can settle into a spot he is sure to dominate at right tackle. Ryan Diem is a good starter, a powerful run blocker and only struggles against the best of the speed rushers, but Long is a class above him. A dominating run blocker with great athleticism (he's a possible Pro LT). He'll seal off Peyton's front side even vs the fastest left ends. Long may start at guard temporarily if he can't immediately unseat Diem. Diem started his career at guard and moved back there when his mobility was limited by injury. No matter who's the guard and who's the tackle a right side of Diem and Long, along with Ugoh, Lilja and Saturday rounding out the line, would be the best in the league.

More Later

Mock Draft Breakdowns

Here is where the players I expect the Colts to target are predicted to go in the seven latest 3 round mocks on Hail Redskins Mock Draft Database.

Player
OLB Xavier Adibi
3rd/#74/CAR 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#62/NE
3rd/#83/TB 2nd/#63/NYG 2nd/#40/NO

DT Trevor Laws
2nd/#40/NO 2nd/#53/PIT 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#50/ARI
2nd/#36/NYJ 2nd/#55/TEN 3rd/#68/ATL

RB Chris Johnson
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#44/CHI 2nd/#45/DET
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 3rd/#66/KC

DE Cliff Avril
2nd/#54/TEN 2nd/#51/WAS 2nd/#54/TEN 3rd/#86/SEA
3rd/#75/SF 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#58/JAX

RB Matt Forte
3rd/#67/CAR 3rd/#86/SEA 3rd/#76/DET Not in 3 round mock,
2nd/#6o/GB 3rd/#93/IND 3rd/#87/DET

DE Marcus Howard
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#60/GB 3rd/#88/PIT Not in 3 round mock,
Not in 3 round mock, 3rd/#88/DET

TE Martellus Bennet
3rd/#78/NO 3rd/#97/CIN 2nd/#47/MIN 2nd/#55/SEA
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#55/SEA 2nd/56/GB

TE John Carlson
2nd/#62/NE 3nd/#72/BUF 2nd/#60/GB 2nd/#56/GB
3rd/#94/NE 2nd/#57/GB 3rd/#71/BUF

Times available at #59/Times available at #93. Out of 7
Laws 1/0
Johnson 1/0
Avril 3/0
Bennet 3/2
Adibi 5/0
Carlson 5/1
Forte 6/2
Howard 7/3

So this gives a general idea of the availability of these players.

* Some of the pick #s will be off +/- 1 because some mocks count the Patriots forfeited pick in the numbering and some don't

Colts Draft by DraftTek.com

Probably my favorite mock draft site, even more so since they've had the Colts getting Chris Johnson for a solid month now. They simulate the draft by using a program that uses team needs as given by correspondents representing each team and a big board with the top 293 players, as ranked by various draft experts. Each level of team need has a specific priority and amount the team will reach down the big board to fill the need. This gives a full draft simulation that is usually realistic for nearly every team. Check It Out, I love it.
Here's the draft the Colts bring in in their most recent sim:

2. (#59)Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
3. (#93)John Carlson TE Notre Dame
4. (#127)Geno Hayes LB Florida State
5. (#161)Keenan Burton WR Kentucky
6a. (#196) Rupolph Hardie DE Howard
6b. (#201) Matt Spanos C Southern Cal
6c. (#202) Letroy Guion DT Florida State
6d. (#205) Thaddeus Coleman OT Miss Valley St.
7. (#236) Marcus Walker CB Oklahoma

Here's where other potential Colts targets fell

2nd round:
42. (DEN) Trevor Laws DT Norte Dame
46. (CIN) Xavier Adibi OLB Virginia Tech
3rd round:
65. (STL) Cliff Avril OLB/DE Purdue
77. (CIN) Matt Forte RB Tulane
79. (HOU) Marcus Howard OLB/DE Georgia
91. (GB) John Greco OT Toledo
95. (NYG) Bruce Davis OLB/DE UCLA
5th round:
139. (DEN) Doug Legursky C Marshall
140. (KC) Robert Felton OG Arkansas
141. (CAR) Harry Douglas WR Louisville
142. (CHI) Drew Radovich OG Southern Cal
150. (MIN) Kory Lichtensteiger OC Bowling Green
156. (PIT) Arman Shields WR Richmond
6th round:
171. (NYJ) Jacob Tamme TE Kentucky
7th round:
203. (PHI) Jacob Hester FB LSU
239. (KC) Bernard Morris Marshall
Undrafted:
Titus Brown DE Miss State
Jalen Parmele RB Toledo

I (and hopefully the real Colts) would have taken DE Bruce Davis over TE John Carlson in the third. After missing out on Avril and Howard, Davis is the last of that tier of pass rusher. OLB Geno Hayes is a fit in the Colts system, but I'd rather have OG Robert Felton in the late 4th. Jacob Tamme over teammate Keenan Burton in the fifth. In the sixth round Guion the DT has good size and can penetrate, but is raw, inconsistent and missed FSU's bowl game due to an academic violation (failing or skipping out on classes) I don't like him, I'd take Jacob Hester to add a true fullback to the now crowded Colts backfield. Bernard Morris is a far more sexy pick than a no-name CB, I like sexy.

My Draft from players available at Colts pick:
2. RB Chris Johnson
3. DE Bruce Davis
4. OG Robert Felton
5. TE Jacob Tamme
6a. Rudolph Hardie (I really like this guy after reading his profile. Big guy at 270-280, but has speed and sack production, 21.5 in the last two years. Teammate of Bethea's at Howard)
6b. C Matt Spanos
6c. FB Jacob Hester
6d. OT Thaddeus Coleman
7. QB Bernard Morris

Help decide the Colts (mock) pick

I seriously doubt anyone who reads my blog isn't a regular reader of Stampede Blue (and if you're not, why the hell aren't you? Even if you just love me I post there a lot more than I do here, GO, now) But just in case and because people who read my blog get to have more influence on me than people who don't here it goes;

The Mocking the Draft fan mock draft is tomorrow and I'm making the Colts pick.

So here's a chance to help me with the draft board.

I've got;

1. Chris Johnson (non-negotiable)
   
2. Trevor Laws
   
3. Marcus Howard
   
4. Cliff Avril
   

5/6 Matt Forte/Xavier Adibi (not sure which I like better)

Another pass rusher is probably the Colts biggest need so if the subject of my man-crush is taken before my pick I'll choke back my tears long enough to hopefully fill that need with one of the Laws, Howard, Avril trio.

I like Forte, but he has a big skills overlap with Addai. I'd prefer a #2 RB (Chris Johnson) that brings something else to the table instead of just a less explosive, but maybe better blocking version of Addai.

Adibi would be a monster at LB for the Colts. He fits the system and is more talented and polished than most Colts LB picks. LB isn't a big need, but he's someone I'd be glad to settle for.

Anyone want to shuffle the rankings or add on?

Note: The whole reason I do this (blogging) is to talk to people that share my interest in the Colts and the NFL, so speak up if you have anything to say, even if you just agree with me, but especially if you disagree with anything. This goes for everything I post.

Favorite Prospects-2nd rounders

While reading up on all the possible Colts picks there have been a few prospects that I really liked. Exciting players that fit what the Colts do. When these guys are taken there will be a response from me, either an excited fist pump as the Colts select them, a disappointed head in hands sigh when another team drafts them or a moment of frustration followed by a calm "In Polian we trust," if the Colts pass on a favorite.

Possible 2nd rounders
Chris Johnson- I joke about liking the East Carolina runningback so much it's become physical attraction, but he really is my favorite and no other pick by the Colts would be as exciting. Johnson can backup Addai, return kicks and line up in the slot providing depth at WR too. He's a threat to go for a TD every time the ball is in his hands and the Colts wealth of other options will keep him from being overworked or made ineffective by misuse as an every-down
up the middle pounding, back (see Bush, Reggie). How's this for a dangerous set, Wayne and Marvin split wide, Clark at TE, Peyton in the shotgun flanked by Addai and Chris Johnson. 5 elite receiving targets on the field and it's a legitimate running formation because of Clark's solid blocking at TE and former fullback Addai ready to lead Johnson through the hole.

Trevor Laws The end of 2006 and start of 2007 showed how the Tampa-2 is suppose to work, two fast safeties covering deep with the big physical corners playing short and the athletic linebackers filling the middle of the zone. The seven men in coverage blanket the field allowing no quick throws. Up front the DEs fly up the field and around the tackles. The QB looks to step up out of danger, but sees penetration from the DTs and can't. He's is forced into a bad throw into tight coverage or to eat the ball for a big sack.
Disruptive DTs have been what the Colts have lacked, likely because it's the only position where the Colts don't specifically look for a type of player that most teams don't like (slower but strong tackling corners, small fast linebackers and safeties who cover and undersized pass rushing DEs). The kind of DT that the Colts really need is the kind of D-linemen every other team wants. Big enough to play the run, but quick with pass rushing moves to penetrate or push the pocket. Anthony McFarland is that kind of DT and Raheem Brock seemed to be becoming one before his injury. With McFarland cut and now signed with Pittsburgh the Colts lack a big pass rushing DT. Ed Johnson can hold up against the run, but does little to pressure the QB. Trevor Laws can do both. He's slightly undersized but holds up against the run and he can pressure the QB. A pass rusher in the very solid, but unspectacular Ed Johnson's spot is the piece missing from the Colts starting lineup.


Marcus Howard

Q: Who started their career with this 3 year stat line?

Year Age Tm G GS Sk Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Tkl Ast Sfty 2003 22 IND 16 0 3.5 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 18 3 2004 23 IND 16 1 10.5 6 0 3 26 0 32 4 2005 24 IND 13 0 11.5 0 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 0 46 10

A: a fifth round pick who was dismissed as a "tweener" and pass rush specialist who racked up 25.5 sacks in 3 years in that role, became a starter in his fourth season and led the Colts in sacks in both the seasons since he entered the starting lineup, Robert Mathis.

The Colts need a backup DE who can rush the passer more than ever with Freeney returning from a season ending injury and last season revealing that none of the current backups are effective pass rushers. A second round pick is not too much a cost to fill this role and a player like Howard can definitely be a situational rusher early and grow into a staring role. Marcus Howard is likely to have a bigger immediate impact and progress faster because he is making the jump to the NFL from a higher level of competition than Mathis faced in D1-AA and is a more highly regarded prospect.

Andre Caldwell-just because O_O

Matt Forte- A HB/FB hybrid that blocks well and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's basically Addai shifted further towards the FB end of the RB spectrum.

Xavier Adabi- Everything in his profiles screams Colts linebacker, but he's probably to highly touted to become one. He will be flying all over the field from the WILL for some lucky team very soom.

46 days to the draft

That means another set of mocks with a few new names thrown out there:

DT, Dre Moore Quick off the line with rare speed in pursuit and has the size (6'4" 307) and strength (31 bench reps at the combine, set school weightlifting records) to hold his ground, he seems perfect of the Colts athletically. He is, but the best athletes aren't always the best football players. Got a late start to football, is inconsistent and needs work on his technique. He improved in these areas as a senior, but is still far from his potential.

RB Dantrell Savage (3rd round) A small back with good speed and hands. Size and injury history are concerns. His blocking was good at the college level but 5'8" 190lb RBs can't be expected to be very effective pass blockers in the NFL. Has the skill set of a return-man, but wasn't a kick returner in college.

Late Update

Took two days instead of one (I never get anything done on my days off), but here's the rest of the Mock List update.

DE/DT Jason Jones, (3rd round) A big DE with experience at DT and good quickness. Probably a fit with the Colts in the DT rotation (though it's pretty solid as of now) and as the big DE (Josh Thomas' role).

DE Marcus Howard NFL.com's evaluation sounds extremely similar to Robert Mathis pre-draft profiles; A DE with great production in college, but thought of as too small to play and has little/no experience at LB. Could be a good situational pass rusher available in the middle rounds.

And finally Draft Tek makes my night (so far, maybe I'll go out later like a normal person) by making Chris Johnson the Colts 2nd round pick.

New Prospects

The Mock drafts are picking up following the combine. Here are the newcomers to the Colt's list.

DT, DeMario Pressley
A big run stopping double team absorber, not really a fit for the Colts since he does little more than hold his ground (very, very well).

LB, Jerod Mayo
A fast aggressive LB, played both inside and out in college

-Adding more tomorrow, time to sleep-

Painful Cuts and Spending $$$

Anthony McFarland and Rob Morris were cut today after failing their physicals. It's sad to see two more quality well-liked players leave the Colts that way (it was Brandon Stokley and Monte Reagor last year). On the bright side for the Colts they now have another 8 million in cap room to work with, putting them more than 10 million under the cap. Let's ease the pain of losing two great guys by spending that 10 million.

10.5 million minus

-3.5 million for draft picks (picks from rounds 2 to 7 for Colts last year 3.2mil)

-1.86 million for 4th round tenders on Giordano and Gandy (930,000 each)

-1.o7 million for new contracts for Darrell Reid and Ben Utecht (guessing both made 435,000 last year so a 100,000 (23%) raise should do it

-600,000 for league minimum deals for Ed Johnson and Thorpe (Exclusive rights free agents)

-500,000 for Fletcher or Seidman, coaches choice since we never got to see Seidman play due to injury

That leaves 2.97 million left with Jake Scott, Josh Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Aaron
Moorehead and Bryan Fletcher or Mike Seidman as the Colts FAs remaining.

Scott is gone unless the free agent market for him totally collapses, Boiman isn't needed after being replaced by Hagler as a starter and Sessions as a backup, Klecko hardy saw the field last season, Moorehead sucks, and if Seidman hadn't gotten hurt and IRed either him or Fletcher would have been cut anyway. That leaves Josh Thomas, he's valuable as the big DE subbing in, but isn't anything special. Resigning him is the backup plan for what I'd really like-

I'd like to sign Travis LaBoy here, the only contract guesstimate I could find has him at 4.5 million a year, by backloading the deal that's possible to fit into 3 million in cap room this year or they could dip into the savings from Clark's extension (which I haven't counted since I don't know how much it'll be).

So, bring back Giordano, Gandy, Utecht, Reid, and a 3rd TE and let Scott, Thomas, Boiman, Klecko, Moorehead and Fletcher-Seidman go, then sign LaBoy.

(All cap numbers from the awesome Colts Cap.Net)

I <3 Chris Johnson

The runningback for ECU is now my favorite prospect by far. He was already my favorite before today, I already knew he was fast, could return kicks, play wide receiver or runningback and averaged 6 yards a carry in college but today he went out and absolutely flew in the 40. He ran the best time of the 08 combine to date and one of the fastest ever, 4.24 seconds.

Now the only question is will the Colts have to trade up to get him and should they? (if it's not far I say "yes, yes, yes please yes.")

A prospect for the Utecht Haters

Martellus Bennett, the 6'7" 250lb Tight End from Texas A&M. He could fill both the blocking TE and big redzone target roles for the Colts. He's an excellent blocker with good hands, but is a bit slow and needs work on his route running. He could more than fill Utecht's role. He has the same strengths, but many of the same weaknesses, including this scary phrase in his profile, "Does not always secure the ball."

Is super-size Utecht worth a 2nd round pick? He's ranked #33 overall by Matt Miller and #32 by Scout.com, others are less high on him, but it's unlikely he'll be around by the time the Colts have their 3rd round pick. With Tight Ends and O linemen working out at the combine today he's a guy to watch.

Great profiles/list

NFL.com has posted a ton of great prospect profiles, so I'm going to link the profile of every player from the mock draft list. Hopefully this will make a neater list of possible Colts draft picks and give great info. The number in parenthesis (#) is the prospects rank in the draft class from Matt Miller at New Era Scouting and Mocking the Draft, The number in brackets [#] is the rank by scout.com.

RBs
Chris Johnson (#59) [#37]
Matt Forte (#48) [#82]
Ray Rice (#107) [#85]
Tashard Choice (#86) [#134]
Jacob Hester (#122) [#198]
Dantrell Savage (#179) [#157]

WRs
Chris Johnson* (#59) [#37]
Devin Thomas (#73) [#24]
James Hardy (#75) [#66]
Andre Caldwell O_O (#99) [#49]

TEs
Fred Davis (#39) [#22]
Martellus Bennett (#33) [#32]
Jacob Tamme (#127) [#130]

OL
Carl Nicks (#65) [#27]
Branden Albert (#50) [#57]
Roy Schuening (#69) [#93]
Tony Hills (#90) [#90]
Robert Felton (#97) [#59]
Chilo Rachal (#128) [#121]
Heath Benedict (#115) [#116]
Eric Young (#185) [#73]
Drew Radovich (#188) [#86]
Oneil Cousins (unlisted) [#33]
Chad Rinehart (unlisted) [#122]


LBs
Xavier Adibi (#35) [#74]
Geno Hayes (#57) [#67]
Phillip Wheeler (#74) [#71]
Bruce Davis (#80) [#125]
Jerod Mayo (#70) [#72]

DEs
Chris Ellis(#54) [#47]
Phillip Wheeler* (#74) [#71]
Darrell Robertson (#111) [#61]
Bruce Davis*(#80) [#125]
Cliff Avril (#161) [#79]
Jason Jones (#120) [#146]
Jeremy Thompson (#157) [#186]
Marcus Howard (unlisted) [#160]

DTs
Pat Sims (#55) [#45]
Dre Moore (#85) [#68]
Frank Okam (#41) [#119]
Red Bryant (#105) [#107]
Demario Pressley (#108) [#131]
Jason Jones* (#120) [#146]


*=I know I listed him twice he could play either position

my thoughts on these players can be found here

Update

New Mock Picks
2nd round
DT, Red Bryant, (profile) (profile2) Finally everyone's favorite part of the mock draft season, calling someone a moron for not knowing which type of player fits into each of the 32 team's systems. Huge (6'5" 330lbs), neither quick nor fast and having little impact as a pass rusher Bryant is not a Colts DT.

3rd round
WR, Andre Caldwell, (profile) A big play threat with the hands that caught the most passes in the history of the Florida Gators. Caldwell is fast, runs good routes and is quick out of cuts. At 6 foot 200lbs he looks like the rest of the Colts WR corps.

OT/OG Heath Benedict (profile) Like Rinehart, a small school star, all the tools, but didn't face top competition. Benedict began at Tennessee, but academic problems caused his move to D-II.

Two new 2nd rounders

More guys someone out there thinks the Colts will draft.

LB, Phillip Wheeler, (profile) (profile) A fast, aggressive, undersized linebacker with solid coverage skills. Fits into a cover two at OLB. Experience and sack production at DE and MLB in college makes blitzing or using him as a rush end an option.

DE, Jeremy Thompson (stats) a big DE without huge sack production, he was strong against the run. After initially dismissing this pick I realized he could fix the depth at DE in the opposite way than I had been trying to, by taking snaps away from Freeney/Mathis in running situations keeping them fresh, instead of finding another great pass rusher to replicate what they do.

Full list is here