First of all it's an awesome site that gives you info that isn't around anywhere else. Check it out.
Armed with the amount each player currently under contract with the Colts will count against the 116 million dollar 08 salary cap, I'm going to take a look at where all the money is going, where it's money well spent and the one spot that it's not.
5 Great Values (underpaid players)
Antonie Bethea $462,250
Freddy Keiaho $551,000
Tony Ugoh $786,666
Kelvin Hayden $801,666
Joseph Addai $1,561,750
What do all these players have in common? They were great draft picks made by Bill Polian and are still on their rookie contracts. Bethea has filled in the role of underpaid pro-bowl safety after 2007 DPOY Bob Sanders got his well deserved mega-deal after spending his first four seasons playing for second round draft pick money. Bethea and Hayden's contracts end after the 2008 season making them RFA's if the Colts don't sign them to extensions. Both are vital pieces to the best defense the Colts have had in a very long time. They are big physical DBs that lay the big hit and have cover skills exceeding what is needed for the cover-2. Keiaho and Addai's deals go through 2009 and Ugoh is locked up until 2010.
5 Biggest Money Players (Superstars and paid like it)
Peyton Manning $18.7million
Marvin Harrison $12.0million
Bob Sanders $ 8.2million
Reggie Wayne $ 6.7million
Robert Mathis $ 6.7million
The highest paid defensive player in the NFL is third in cap charge on his own defense and is second on the D-line (third if you count the elephant on the cap below*). Manning deserves every penny and Marvin may have to restructure his deal, but won't actually need to give up any money.
The Free Agent Disaster
Corey Simon $ 6.0million
*=I'm not that good at fat jokes.
Showing posts with label offseason breakdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label offseason breakdown. Show all posts
Monday, March 31, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Painful Cuts and Spending $$$
Anthony McFarland and Rob Morris were cut today after failing their physicals. It's sad to see two more quality well-liked players leave the Colts that way (it was Brandon Stokley and Monte Reagor last year). On the bright side for the Colts they now have another 8 million in cap room to work with, putting them more than 10 million under the cap. Let's ease the pain of losing two great guys by spending that 10 million.
10.5 million minus
-3.5 million for draft picks (picks from rounds 2 to 7 for Colts last year 3.2mil)
-1.86 million for 4th round tenders on Giordano and Gandy (930,000 each)
-1.o7 million for new contracts for Darrell Reid and Ben Utecht (guessing both made 435,000 last year so a 100,000 (23%) raise should do it
-600,000 for league minimum deals for Ed Johnson and Thorpe (Exclusive rights free agents)
-500,000 for Fletcher or Seidman, coaches choice since we never got to see Seidman play due to injury
That leaves 2.97 million left with Jake Scott, Josh Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Aaron
Moorehead and Bryan Fletcher or Mike Seidman as the Colts FAs remaining.
Scott is gone unless the free agent market for him totally collapses, Boiman isn't needed after being replaced by Hagler as a starter and Sessions as a backup, Klecko hardy saw the field last season, Moorehead sucks, and if Seidman hadn't gotten hurt and IRed either him or Fletcher would have been cut anyway. That leaves Josh Thomas, he's valuable as the big DE subbing in, but isn't anything special. Resigning him is the backup plan for what I'd really like-
I'd like to sign Travis LaBoy here, the only contract guesstimate I could find has him at 4.5 million a year, by backloading the deal that's possible to fit into 3 million in cap room this year or they could dip into the savings from Clark's extension (which I haven't counted since I don't know how much it'll be).
So, bring back Giordano, Gandy, Utecht, Reid, and a 3rd TE and let Scott, Thomas, Boiman, Klecko, Moorehead and Fletcher-Seidman go, then sign LaBoy.
(All cap numbers from the awesome Colts Cap.Net)
10.5 million minus
-3.5 million for draft picks (picks from rounds 2 to 7 for Colts last year 3.2mil)
-1.86 million for 4th round tenders on Giordano and Gandy (930,000 each)
-1.o7 million for new contracts for Darrell Reid and Ben Utecht (guessing both made 435,000 last year so a 100,000 (23%) raise should do it
-600,000 for league minimum deals for Ed Johnson and Thorpe (Exclusive rights free agents)
-500,000 for Fletcher or Seidman, coaches choice since we never got to see Seidman play due to injury
That leaves 2.97 million left with Jake Scott, Josh Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Aaron
Moorehead and Bryan Fletcher or Mike Seidman as the Colts FAs remaining.
Scott is gone unless the free agent market for him totally collapses, Boiman isn't needed after being replaced by Hagler as a starter and Sessions as a backup, Klecko hardy saw the field last season, Moorehead sucks, and if Seidman hadn't gotten hurt and IRed either him or Fletcher would have been cut anyway. That leaves Josh Thomas, he's valuable as the big DE subbing in, but isn't anything special. Resigning him is the backup plan for what I'd really like-
I'd like to sign Travis LaBoy here, the only contract guesstimate I could find has him at 4.5 million a year, by backloading the deal that's possible to fit into 3 million in cap room this year or they could dip into the savings from Clark's extension (which I haven't counted since I don't know how much it'll be).
So, bring back Giordano, Gandy, Utecht, Reid, and a 3rd TE and let Scott, Thomas, Boiman, Klecko, Moorehead and Fletcher-Seidman go, then sign LaBoy.
(All cap numbers from the awesome Colts Cap.Net)
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Restricted Free Agency
A NFL feature that only a Madden Franchise Mode addict could understand and enjoy. Here are the Colts RFAs for 2008 with their draft round (important in a minute):
Update: all five RFAs received the lowest tender amount ($930,000), if they are signed by another team the Colts can match the contract or receive a draft pick in the round that the player was originally drafted in.
TE, Bryan Fletcher (6th round)
OG/C, Dylan Gandy (4th round)
S, Matt Giordano (4th round)
DE/DT/star special teamer Darrell Reid (undrafted)
TE, Ben Utecht (undrafted)
Here's the simplest explanation of restricted free agency I could write, (copy pasted from Monday's post):
Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.
Here are the contract tender levels that the Colts have to choose from:
Both Gandy and Giordano are useful players and their 4th round draft status will either scare teams away or give enough compensation to the Colts if they're given the 850K tender. Gandy could step into either guard spot and start. With both starting guards FAs they can't let their backup go too. Giordano is a good backup safety (he's both Sanders' and Bethea's backup) can play CB in the dime (like he did in the Superbowl), contributes on special teams and is unbelievably fast (almost caught Hester in SBXLI, still ran the 40 at the combine even with a torn pectoral that forced him to keep one arm at his side the whole time. His time was a 4.5)
I would like to see Utecht, Fletcher and Reid all back but the lowest tender offer would nearly double their cap charge from last year and provide no compensation for Utecht and Reid if they left. The Colts need to roll the dice and not offer them a tender or get an extension for less than the tender amount done before the 29th when Free Agency begins. Without a tender offer they'll become free agents and can return at closer to their 2007 salaries. Hopefully no other team has fallen in love with any of these three as I'd love to see them back.
Update: all five RFAs received the lowest tender amount ($930,000), if they are signed by another team the Colts can match the contract or receive a draft pick in the round that the player was originally drafted in.
TE, Bryan Fletcher (6th round)
OG/C, Dylan Gandy (4th round)
S, Matt Giordano (4th round)
DE/DT/star special teamer Darrell Reid (undrafted)
TE, Ben Utecht (undrafted)
Here's the simplest explanation of restricted free agency I could write, (copy pasted from Monday's post):
Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.
Here are the contract tender levels that the Colts have to choose from:
| $2.35 million | First- and third-round |
| $1.85 million | First-round |
| $1.3 million | Second-round |
| $850,000 | Determined by RFA's original draft status |
Both Gandy and Giordano are useful players and their 4th round draft status will either scare teams away or give enough compensation to the Colts if they're given the 850K tender. Gandy could step into either guard spot and start. With both starting guards FAs they can't let their backup go too. Giordano is a good backup safety (he's both Sanders' and Bethea's backup) can play CB in the dime (like he did in the Superbowl), contributes on special teams and is unbelievably fast (almost caught Hester in SBXLI, still ran the 40 at the combine even with a torn pectoral that forced him to keep one arm at his side the whole time. His time was a 4.5)
I would like to see Utecht, Fletcher and Reid all back but the lowest tender offer would nearly double their cap charge from last year and provide no compensation for Utecht and Reid if they left. The Colts need to roll the dice and not offer them a tender or get an extension for less than the tender amount done before the 29th when Free Agency begins. Without a tender offer they'll become free agents and can return at closer to their 2007 salaries. Hopefully no other team has fallen in love with any of these three as I'd love to see them back.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Colts Free Agent List
I had trouble finding a list of all the Colts free agents a while back. Colts Cap has the best one I've found, but I didn't find that while looking for a free agent list. So I'll list out the guys they have as FAs here and hopefully help any curious Colts fans searching the web.
Updated: 3/1/08, 3/11/08
Unrestricted FAs-
Rocky Boiman, OLB
Dallas Clark, TE/WR (Resigned, 6yrs-36million)
Dan Klecko, DT/FB
Ryan Lilja OG (Resigned, 5yrs-20million)
Aaron Moorehead WR
Jake Scott OG (Signed with Titans, 4yrs-20million)
Mike Seidman TE
Josh Thomas DE
Restricted FAs*-
Bryan Fletcher, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Dylan Gandy, OG/C (Tendered-$930,000)
Matt Giordano, S (Tendered-$930,000)
Darrell Reid, DT/DE/special teams ace (Tendered-$930,000)
Ben Utecht, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Exclusive Rights FAs**-
Ed Johnson DT (Resigned, 1yr 370,000)
Craphoso Thorpe WR/KR (released)
*=Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.
The tender levels, their $ amount for 2007 and the draft compensation for them:
**=Exclusive Rights Free Agents are players with only one or two years in the NFL. Their former teams can prevent them from becoming unrestricted free agents just by offering them a contract for the NFL minimum.
Updated: 3/1/08, 3/11/08
Unrestricted FAs-
Rocky Boiman, OLB
Dallas Clark, TE/WR (Resigned, 6yrs-36million)
Dan Klecko, DT/FB
Ryan Lilja OG (Resigned, 5yrs-20million)
Aaron Moorehead WR
Jake Scott OG (Signed with Titans, 4yrs-20million)
Mike Seidman TE
Josh Thomas DE
Restricted FAs*-
Bryan Fletcher, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Dylan Gandy, OG/C (Tendered-$930,000)
Matt Giordano, S (Tendered-$930,000)
Darrell Reid, DT/DE/special teams ace (Tendered-$930,000)
Ben Utecht, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Exclusive Rights FAs**-
Ed Johnson DT (Resigned, 1yr 370,000)
Craphoso Thorpe WR/KR (released)
*=Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.
The tender levels, their $ amount for 2007 and the draft compensation for them:
$2.35 million | First- and third-round |
| $1.85 million | First-round |
| $1.3 million | Second-round |
| $850,000 | Determined by RFA's original draft status |
**=Exclusive Rights Free Agents are players with only one or two years in the NFL. Their former teams can prevent them from becoming unrestricted free agents just by offering them a contract for the NFL minimum.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Colts Cap/Free Agents
Cap room is the biggest determining factor in how a team approaches free agency. I rediscovered this awesome site, Colts Cap, that will provide (roughly) the limits of what the Colts will be able to in the upcoming months.
They put the Colts as being 9.7 million under the cap as of the end of January.
That 9.7 million is to be split between the Colts' 15 free agents, 6+ draft picks and any undrafted rookies or other teams FAs the Colts would like to add.
The FA's:
Dallas Clark, The Colts say they will franchise tag him if they do not get an extension done.
The Franchise tag is a one year contract worth the average salary of the top five players at the same position as the tagged player. A tagged player does not become a free agent while under the tag, regardless of whether they have signed the offer.
The TE tag would cost 4.5 million for the non-exclusive tag (which would allow other teams to negotiate a contract with Clark, but the Colts would have the option of matching that contract and would receive two first round picks as compensation if they chose not to match). The exclusive tag, which the Colts used on Freeney, does not allow teams to negotiate with the tagged player, but is more expensive since it would be calculated using the average of the top 5 salaries for the current year (2008) instead of 2007. There was a difference of one million between the two tags at the TE position last year.
So 4.5 million off the cap for Clark if he's tagged, maybe only 3 to 4 million if they get an extension done.
That leaves between 4.2 and 6.7 million. Ed Johnson and Craphonso Thorpe are exclusive rights free agents, meaning as long as the Colts offer them the minimum salary ~300,000 they can't sign with any other team. Johnson is worth that without a doubt and Thorpe provides depth at receiver and another option for a return man so he'll get the minimum.
Before anyone else is signed the Colts need to save some of that 3.4 to 6.1 million for signing the next wave of awesome Polian draft picks and undrafted rookies. The Colts don't have a first round pick so most of the cost of the draft doesn't apply to them. Here's what the Colts draft picks counted on the cap last year. All picks besides Ugoh were at the end of the round.
1st round Gonzalez, 1.1 million
2nd round (pick #10) Ugoh, $650,000
3rd round, Hughes, $437,500
Pitcock, $430,000
4th round, Condren $382,000
Sessions $377,500
5th round, Hall $321,687
Coe $319,500
7th round, Dawson $295,375
Undrafted rookies, FA additons, Practice Squad
$4 million
So 3.2 Million just for the 2nd through 7th round picks last year and another 4 million in other new players. The FA number should be less this season since the Colts struggled with injuries last season and currently have 61 players on the roster.
Assuming all the FA additions and practice squad are among the 61 on the roster that leaves between $200,000 and 2.9 million for the 12 remaining FAs and undrafted rookies.
Cuts are coming.
They put the Colts as being 9.7 million under the cap as of the end of January.
That 9.7 million is to be split between the Colts' 15 free agents, 6+ draft picks and any undrafted rookies or other teams FAs the Colts would like to add.
The FA's:
Dallas Clark, The Colts say they will franchise tag him if they do not get an extension done.
The Franchise tag is a one year contract worth the average salary of the top five players at the same position as the tagged player. A tagged player does not become a free agent while under the tag, regardless of whether they have signed the offer.
The TE tag would cost 4.5 million for the non-exclusive tag (which would allow other teams to negotiate a contract with Clark, but the Colts would have the option of matching that contract and would receive two first round picks as compensation if they chose not to match). The exclusive tag, which the Colts used on Freeney, does not allow teams to negotiate with the tagged player, but is more expensive since it would be calculated using the average of the top 5 salaries for the current year (2008) instead of 2007. There was a difference of one million between the two tags at the TE position last year.
So 4.5 million off the cap for Clark if he's tagged, maybe only 3 to 4 million if they get an extension done.
That leaves between 4.2 and 6.7 million. Ed Johnson and Craphonso Thorpe are exclusive rights free agents, meaning as long as the Colts offer them the minimum salary ~300,000 they can't sign with any other team. Johnson is worth that without a doubt and Thorpe provides depth at receiver and another option for a return man so he'll get the minimum.
Before anyone else is signed the Colts need to save some of that 3.4 to 6.1 million for signing the next wave of awesome Polian draft picks and undrafted rookies. The Colts don't have a first round pick so most of the cost of the draft doesn't apply to them. Here's what the Colts draft picks counted on the cap last year. All picks besides Ugoh were at the end of the round.
1st round Gonzalez, 1.1 million
2nd round (pick #10) Ugoh, $650,000
3rd round, Hughes, $437,500
Pitcock, $430,000
4th round, Condren $382,000
Sessions $377,500
5th round, Hall $321,687
Coe $319,500
7th round, Dawson $295,375
Undrafted rookies, FA additons, Practice Squad
$4 million
So 3.2 Million just for the 2nd through 7th round picks last year and another 4 million in other new players. The FA number should be less this season since the Colts struggled with injuries last season and currently have 61 players on the roster.
Assuming all the FA additions and practice squad are among the 61 on the roster that leaves between $200,000 and 2.9 million for the 12 remaining FAs and undrafted rookies.
Cuts are coming.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Fixing the Special Teams
Football Outsiders DVOA ranked the Colts special teams dead last overall, 31st on FG/XPs, 29th in kickoff coverage, 26th in punt coverage, 24th in kickoff returns and the lone bright spot, 6th in punt returns. You don't need advanced stats to tell you the special teams were awful, it was obvious. They cost the Colts a minimum of one win (@SD) and put the offense and defense in bad situations the entire year. How does a team that requires top level speed from it's linebackers, great tackling ability from it's DBs, has a 288lb DT who is fast enough to cover kicks and employs the highest paid kicker in the league suck on special teams?
I have to point the finger at the coaching. The talent is there, the Colts love the kind of defensive players that most teams relegate to special teams, undersized speedy LBs and D-linemen, hard hitting DBs, even some with top level speed (Giordano/Jennings), they used a fifth round pick on Roy Hall (who hardly played in college) because he had the physical talent to contribute on special teams immediately, not as a returner, on the coverage unit. Dungy and Polian see special teams as such a problem they are using mid round picks on kick coverage players. The Colts special teams have been above average once in Russ Purnell's time as the Colt's special team coach (2003, 14th in the league and that's with Vanderjagt perfect on FG/XPs). The Colts kickoff unit has varied between bad and embarrassing, but remained below average for Purnell's entire 6 years with the Colts. The Punt unit has hovered around the low side of average with occasional dips to horrible. The return units are consistently average. Russ Purnell=bad special teams play.
Was Vinateiri hurt? If he was I'm willing to writeoff his horrible season, but if not I'm worried. The highest paid kicker in the league should not be 12.4 points below the average NFL kicker. Hopefully his booming kickoffs and first successful 40+ yard FG in the SD playoff game means he was hurt for most of the year like some people were suggesting. If the Colts know he was healthy through that awful stretch of season Vinatieri should be on a tight leash next year. If this year is the kind of year the Colts will continue to get from him he can be added right below Corey Simon on the list of reasons the Colts don't sign big money FAs.
Hopefully the Colts will finally take steps in the right direction. Fire Purnell and figure out what the hell was wrong with Mr. Clutch. I don't want to dread kickoffs and punts anymore.
I have to point the finger at the coaching. The talent is there, the Colts love the kind of defensive players that most teams relegate to special teams, undersized speedy LBs and D-linemen, hard hitting DBs, even some with top level speed (Giordano/Jennings), they used a fifth round pick on Roy Hall (who hardly played in college) because he had the physical talent to contribute on special teams immediately, not as a returner, on the coverage unit. Dungy and Polian see special teams as such a problem they are using mid round picks on kick coverage players. The Colts special teams have been above average once in Russ Purnell's time as the Colt's special team coach (2003, 14th in the league and that's with Vanderjagt perfect on FG/XPs). The Colts kickoff unit has varied between bad and embarrassing, but remained below average for Purnell's entire 6 years with the Colts. The Punt unit has hovered around the low side of average with occasional dips to horrible. The return units are consistently average. Russ Purnell=bad special teams play.
Was Vinateiri hurt? If he was I'm willing to writeoff his horrible season, but if not I'm worried. The highest paid kicker in the league should not be 12.4 points below the average NFL kicker. Hopefully his booming kickoffs and first successful 40+ yard FG in the SD playoff game means he was hurt for most of the year like some people were suggesting. If the Colts know he was healthy through that awful stretch of season Vinatieri should be on a tight leash next year. If this year is the kind of year the Colts will continue to get from him he can be added right below Corey Simon on the list of reasons the Colts don't sign big money FAs.
Hopefully the Colts will finally take steps in the right direction. Fire Purnell and figure out what the hell was wrong with Mr. Clutch. I don't want to dread kickoffs and punts anymore.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Here's what to look for
Mathis' pre-draft profiles:
SI.com
Sports Network.com
NFL Draft Scout.com
Len Pasquarelli
Robert Mathis of Alabama A&M (No. 5) isn't big enough to play end on a regular basis, and has no experience at linebacker, but it's hard to ignore the 17 sacks he registered in 2002. The Tony Dungy scheme will find some way to put him to use, probably as a third-down rusher.
Mel Kiper: Indianapolis also got a potential sleeper in Robert Mathis, who could be good as a situational pass rusher and special teams player.
So that's the kind of guy I hope the Colts are looking for in the draft this year.
Those were all I could find from a Google search post more as comments if you find some.
SI.com
Sports Network.com
NFL Draft Scout.com
Len Pasquarelli
Robert Mathis of Alabama A&M (No. 5) isn't big enough to play end on a regular basis, and has no experience at linebacker, but it's hard to ignore the 17 sacks he registered in 2002. The Tony Dungy scheme will find some way to put him to use, probably as a third-down rusher.
Mel Kiper: Indianapolis also got a potential sleeper in Robert Mathis, who could be good as a situational pass rusher and special teams player.
So that's the kind of guy I hope the Colts are looking for in the draft this year.
Those were all I could find from a Google search post more as comments if you find some.
Changes on the defense
The complete lack of a pass rush turned the top pass and scoring D in the league into one that gives up 264 yards and 3 TDs to Marmalard.
This has caused some questioning of the Colts style of defense, we should blitz more, mix up packages, etc. My response to this is, "The enemy of good is better," and if your defining #1 pass and scoring D as good, there's really not a whole lot of room for better, only worse. There is nothing wrong with the Colts defense that requires a change in scheme.
Freeney's return and Mathis and Brock getting healthy should do a lot to fix the pass rush, but a definite weakness in the Colts D was revealed this year, there are only two players on the defense that can get pressure from the outside. Polian needs to dust off some second day magic and find the Colts D another 2004-05 Robert Mathis, a situational pass rusher who can come in on passing downs and backup both DE position. Mathis in 2004 and 2005: 22 sacks, 1 start. Mathis fell to the fifth round in 2003, there are guys like him out there and the Colts need (another) one.
The other question on the D-line is whether McFarland should return or be cut for cap savings. Ed Johnson became one of a small group of undrafted players that started every game of their rookie season. Has he made McFarland unneeded and not worth his cap number? Well, the D was amazing all season with Johnson in the middle, but the Colts D with McFarland won them a Superbowl. On this one I have to answer "I don't know." If cap room is tight he can be done without, but keeping him would be great if possible.
Nickelback was the other sore spot on the defense. Tim Jennings was consistently out of position and committing penalties. Some of that is expected from a second year player who is asked to play on the outside instead of the slot and sometimes cover the opposition's best receiver (honestly, why did they put him on Moss, that was the dumbest thing I saw from the Colts all year). Rookie Dante Hughes looked strong late in the year and saw some time in the nickel package until a shoulder injury landed him on IR. He could take the nickel spot next year, he is basically Marlin Jackson Lite. That's good and bad. Jackson is a great cover two corner, but the Colts like to move him to the slot to hide his lack of speed. Hughes has the same problem, only one of them can play inside in the nickel leaving one on the outside in a mid to deep passing situation where they're are at their weakest, that's why a nickelback who can play on the outside is still needed. Polian loves drafting DBs so there should be a whole new batch of rookies to get a shot.
The linebacker position is as solid as it's ever been. Brackett is performing at a Pro Bowl level, Keiaho is the beast we thought he would be and Hagler grew into his role on the strong side. Rob Morris will be healthy and is under contract for next year and was playing well before his injury. Colts rookie linebackers might as well be in the witness protection program, because they are drafted and disappear for two years, but Clint Sessions found his way onto the field and was excellent in his limited playing time. The linebacker position appears to have recovered from the talent drought that allow Gilbert Gardner into the starting lineup.
This has caused some questioning of the Colts style of defense, we should blitz more, mix up packages, etc. My response to this is, "The enemy of good is better," and if your defining #1 pass and scoring D as good, there's really not a whole lot of room for better, only worse. There is nothing wrong with the Colts defense that requires a change in scheme.
Freeney's return and Mathis and Brock getting healthy should do a lot to fix the pass rush, but a definite weakness in the Colts D was revealed this year, there are only two players on the defense that can get pressure from the outside. Polian needs to dust off some second day magic and find the Colts D another 2004-05 Robert Mathis, a situational pass rusher who can come in on passing downs and backup both DE position. Mathis in 2004 and 2005: 22 sacks, 1 start. Mathis fell to the fifth round in 2003, there are guys like him out there and the Colts need (another) one.
The other question on the D-line is whether McFarland should return or be cut for cap savings. Ed Johnson became one of a small group of undrafted players that started every game of their rookie season. Has he made McFarland unneeded and not worth his cap number? Well, the D was amazing all season with Johnson in the middle, but the Colts D with McFarland won them a Superbowl. On this one I have to answer "I don't know." If cap room is tight he can be done without, but keeping him would be great if possible.
Nickelback was the other sore spot on the defense. Tim Jennings was consistently out of position and committing penalties. Some of that is expected from a second year player who is asked to play on the outside instead of the slot and sometimes cover the opposition's best receiver (honestly, why did they put him on Moss, that was the dumbest thing I saw from the Colts all year). Rookie Dante Hughes looked strong late in the year and saw some time in the nickel package until a shoulder injury landed him on IR. He could take the nickel spot next year, he is basically Marlin Jackson Lite. That's good and bad. Jackson is a great cover two corner, but the Colts like to move him to the slot to hide his lack of speed. Hughes has the same problem, only one of them can play inside in the nickel leaving one on the outside in a mid to deep passing situation where they're are at their weakest, that's why a nickelback who can play on the outside is still needed. Polian loves drafting DBs so there should be a whole new batch of rookies to get a shot.
The linebacker position is as solid as it's ever been. Brackett is performing at a Pro Bowl level, Keiaho is the beast we thought he would be and Hagler grew into his role on the strong side. Rob Morris will be healthy and is under contract for next year and was playing well before his injury. Colts rookie linebackers might as well be in the witness protection program, because they are drafted and disappear for two years, but Clint Sessions found his way onto the field and was excellent in his limited playing time. The linebacker position appears to have recovered from the talent drought that allow Gilbert Gardner into the starting lineup.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Disappointment and Moving On
The Colts season is over. No repeat, no chance to end the perfect season, no three extra weeks of awesome football for the fans. Did I scream obscenities and throw things? Only during the Cromartie INT return. Did I cry like a baby? No. Do I feel like we lost to a better team? No, but they outplayed the Colts yesterday. Am I searching for a scapegoat? No, there's a large share of blame at everyone's feet today. The D regressed, they generated no pass rush and committed stupid penalties. The Offense turned the ball over three times while in scoring position and failed to put the ball in the endzone from inside the 10 for the win, but I'm over all of that now. There are football fans dwelling on the loss, some tastefully and rationally, others likely less so. I'm sure between the two groups everything the can be said (no matter how right or wrong) will be said about the game, so instead I'm taking the more optimistic angle : What do the Colts need to do over the long 7 months until next season? The playoff loss is still fresh in my mind and it would be ridiculous to ignore the game that eliminated the Colts so it will be part of the analysis, but it isn't the focus.
I'm breaking down the offseason into 4 parts that I'll cover in detail later (there are 7 months until next season I'm sure I'll beat them all to death)
What to change? (offseason plans/goals)
The FAs
The Cuts
The Draft
Changes on the offense
The 2007 Colts were done in by injuries and poor execution, so nothing resembling the offseason overhaul many teams need is required for the Colts. On offense inexperience and poor execution were the problems, but that doesn't mean no changes are needed. Kenton Keith showed the he can run the ball at an NFL level and was good in pass protection, but he cannot catch the football well enough to be a runningback in the Colts system. Keith is more likely to have a successful run (58%) than catch a pass thrown to him (57%). Best of luck to you elsewhere (likely in the NFL) in a system that doesn't require you to be a good receiver. The Colts need a new backup RB (Dom Rhodes, you still out there). The receiving corps is excellent if healthy, but depth is poor. If Marvin returns and recovers from his knee injury (please, please, please, please recover and return Marvin) then WR is an afterthought, with an elite top 3 in Marvin, Reggie and Gonzo. The O line struggled with injuries and both guards are free agents. Howard Mudd consistently turns middle to late rounders into NFL level guards so neither will return if they want big money. Tony Ugoh was a force when healthy and smashed the level of expectations set for a second round rookie starting at Left Tackle from day one. "The left tackle was defined by his weakest moment. He wasn't measured by his body of work, but by the outliers" (The Blind Side, Michael Lewis). Ugoh was at his weakest when it mattered most. Up against one of the top pass rushers in the game Ugoh contained him for 59 minutes, zero sacks from Merriman (the botched draw play was counted as Manning run), but on that final drive he was beaten with the game on the line. That moment reminded us all that he was still a rookie. He'll get better and maybe next season will stone Merriman in that final minute.
The offense needs to get the guard position settled and find a back with good hands to pair with Addai and they are set for another run.
Note: I know there are at least a few people out there reading. I'm not above talking to myself, but talking to actual people is better. If you disagree with anything I say or want to add or whatever please feel free to comment.
I'm breaking down the offseason into 4 parts that I'll cover in detail later (there are 7 months until next season I'm sure I'll beat them all to death)
What to change? (offseason plans/goals)
The FAs
The Cuts
The Draft
Changes on the offense
The 2007 Colts were done in by injuries and poor execution, so nothing resembling the offseason overhaul many teams need is required for the Colts. On offense inexperience and poor execution were the problems, but that doesn't mean no changes are needed. Kenton Keith showed the he can run the ball at an NFL level and was good in pass protection, but he cannot catch the football well enough to be a runningback in the Colts system. Keith is more likely to have a successful run (58%) than catch a pass thrown to him (57%). Best of luck to you elsewhere (likely in the NFL) in a system that doesn't require you to be a good receiver. The Colts need a new backup RB (Dom Rhodes, you still out there). The receiving corps is excellent if healthy, but depth is poor. If Marvin returns and recovers from his knee injury (please, please, please, please recover and return Marvin) then WR is an afterthought, with an elite top 3 in Marvin, Reggie and Gonzo. The O line struggled with injuries and both guards are free agents. Howard Mudd consistently turns middle to late rounders into NFL level guards so neither will return if they want big money. Tony Ugoh was a force when healthy and smashed the level of expectations set for a second round rookie starting at Left Tackle from day one. "The left tackle was defined by his weakest moment. He wasn't measured by his body of work, but by the outliers" (The Blind Side, Michael Lewis). Ugoh was at his weakest when it mattered most. Up against one of the top pass rushers in the game Ugoh contained him for 59 minutes, zero sacks from Merriman (the botched draw play was counted as Manning run), but on that final drive he was beaten with the game on the line. That moment reminded us all that he was still a rookie. He'll get better and maybe next season will stone Merriman in that final minute.
The offense needs to get the guard position settled and find a back with good hands to pair with Addai and they are set for another run.
Note: I know there are at least a few people out there reading. I'm not above talking to myself, but talking to actual people is better. If you disagree with anything I say or want to add or whatever please feel free to comment.
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