Saturday, January 12, 2008

Divisional Picks/thoughts

There are four clear favorites this week (I thought, see odds below). This makes most peoples picks hard, but mine easy.

"All four favorites won't advance. There will be one upset, but I don't really see more than one happening"-everyone (Bill Simmons and Mike Golic specifically)

Yeah, you're probably right, but even if that is true you can either:
Try to guess which game is the upset and have a 1 in 4 chance at getting all 4 games right, but a 3 in 4 chance of getting two games wrong (the wrong upset pick + the actual upset)
Take all four favorites and lock in a 3 of 4 (75%, better than anyone gets long run)

And that's assuming a favorite loses. They are the favorites for a reason. They are probably going to win. Using Brian Burke's Win Probability from here The odds of all four favorites winning 26.4% (.74 x .80 x .55 x .81)
The odds of the most likely one upset combo 21.6% (.74 x .80 x .45 x .81)
The odds that the popular upset pick (Giants) is right 6.2% (.74 x .80 x .55 x .19)

If someone wants to bet you that all the favorites will win, take it, because then you get all four underdogs working for you. If you're just picking winners though the odds are with the favorites.

So give me the favorites. Pats, Colts, Packers and Cowboys

Bonus odds: Pats v Colts AFC title game next week 59.2% (.74 x .80)

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