Raheem Brock Pic/Avatar

Awesome Raheem Brock pic posted by BBS at Stampede Blue.

And here it is cropped for an avatar, like I'm using now on one site.

It turns out I'm good at this Fantasy Football thing

53rd man?

Brock back at DT

Did I miss something big?

Only saw about half a quarter of the preseason opener. I saw this when checking the NFL.com box score.

Cubs All Star recap

Total Batting: 0-4, 2Ks, 1 walk
Ramirez: 1PA, 1BB
Soto: 0-2, 1K
Fukudome 0-2 1K

Total Pitching: 4 IP, 0R, 6Ks, 0BB, 1H (who was picked off at 1st)
Zambrano: 2IP, 1K, 1H
Dempster: 1IP, 3K
Marmol: 1IP, 2K

Fun Fact and Cubs leaders

Ryan Theriot's OBP is higher than his SLG, by 25 points. .396 to .371. That's a whole lot of on-base and laughably little power (Big Z is slugging .481, Fukudome is the next lowest everyday player at .409)

Great Hitter - Power = Ryan Theriot

Cubs leaders through Saturday's game (min 50 PA)
PA: Lee (423), Theriot (387), Fukudome (385)
R: Lee (63), Ramirez/Fukudome (59)
2B: Lee (26), Soto (24), Ramirez (22)
3B: Lee (3), Fukudome/DeRosa (2)
HR: Ramirez (17), Soto (16), Lee/Soriano (15)
BB: Fukudome (55), Ramirez (47), Lee/Fukudome/DeRosa (42)
SB: Theriot (15), Fukudome (8), Soriano (7)
SB % (min 5 attempts): Soriano (7 of 8, 88%), Lee (5 of 7, 71%), Fukudome (8 of 12, 67%)
BA: Zambrano (.352), Theriot (.322), Lee (.304)
OBP: Theriot (.396), Blanco (.393), Ramirez (.387)
SLG: Jim Edmonds (.550), Soriano (.547), Soto (.521)
OPS+: Edmonds (135), Ramirez (134), Soto (126)
VORP: Lee (27.8), Soto (27.1), Ramirez (26.3)

Cubs worsts (min 100 PA)
HR: Theriot/Cedeno (1), Reed Johnson (3)
BB: Johnson/Cedeno (13), Soriano (15)

SB % min 5 attempts: Johnson (50%)

Worst (min 50 PA)
BA: Felix Pie (.222), Mike Fontenot (.266), Edmonds/Johnson (.267)
OBP: Pie (.286), Soriano (.332), Johnson (.333)
SLG: Pie (.286), Blanco (.350), Cedeno (.354)
OPS+: Pie (50), Cedeno/Blanco (82), Johnson (85)
VORP: Pie (-2), Blanco (1.2), Johnson (1.8)

Pitching leaders (min 15 IP)
IP: Zambrano (120.3), Dempster (188), Lilly (115.3)
HitsPer9IP: Marmol (4.99), Hill (5.95), Wood (6.45)
BBper9: Lieber (1.01), Howery (1.17), Wood (2.62), Zambrano (2.84)
SO9: Cotts (12.64), Marmol (12.04), Wood (11.28)
HR9: Wood (0.20), Zambrano (0.60), Marquis (0.72)
ERA: Zambrano (2.84), Cotts (2.87), Wood (3.02)
ERA+: Zambrano (157), Cotts (155), Wood (148), Demptser (143)
VORP: Zambrano (36.8), Dempster (27.6), Wood (13.2)

Pitching worsts (min 15 IP)
H9: Lieber (11.28), Howery (10.57),
BB9: Hill (8.24), Hart (6.27), Cotts (5.17)
SO9: Marquis (4.80), Lieber (5.24), Zambrano (5.83)
HR9: Cotts (1.72), Lilly (1.64), Marshall (1.59)
ERA: Hart (7.23), Lilly (4.68), Howery (4.50)
ERA+: Hart (56), Lilly (95), Howry (99), Marquis (100)
VORP: Hart (-5), Hill (3.8), Wuertz (4.1), Howry (4.2), Marshall (6.1)

Post 100

to tell you that it may be a bit for 101. I'm filling in as a contributing writer at Stampede Blue so I'll be focusing on that for a while. If something Cubs related really grabs me I'll post it here and I'll probably copy paste my Stampede Blue posts over here eventually, but for now check me out over at Stampede Blue.

Replacing Soriano

While I was evaluating the Cubs offense this season the 136 million dollar man, Alfonso Soriano, was hit by a pitch last night and fractured a bone in his hand. He's expected to be out for 6 weeks. Luckily Soriano plays a position that isn't very defensively demanding so the Cubs have plenty of options to fill his lineup spot. Here are the possibilities I've seen.


Mark DeRosa, currently the Cubs everyday second baseman so really Soriano's replacement would be the guy that became the new 2nd baseman.

LF Matt Murton, Currently in AAA Iowa and performing very well there, hitting .311 with .411 OBP. He plays solid D, but has no power. Overall he's been a bit above average major league hitter. Murton is only 26 and has proven he can be at least an average major league player. There's no reason he should be sitting in AAA if the Cubs outfield isn't set.

CF Reed Johnson, He's been the Cubs centerfielder for most of the year, but Jim Edmonds is squeezing time away from him by being an adequate offensive player.

1B/LF Micah Houfpaur, He has only 20 major league at bats, but he made the most of them with 8 hits, 3 of them doubles and a walk for a line of .421/.450/.579 All three of those are better than he hit last year in AAA (though the SLG is close) so obviously he don't keep doing that, but a .911 OPS in AAA deserves a major league look.

2B/LF Eric Patterson, Only 14 major league place appearances so I'll ignore the -10 career OPS+. Patterson has an AAA OPS in the .800s and showed off some speed stealing 42 bases (vs 9 caught stealing for 82% success) in a bit over a year in AAA Iowa.

2B Mike Fontenot, above average defensively at 2nd base but not a great hitter, 88 OPS+. Mediocre batting average and OBP with no power. Maybe an upgrade from DeRosa defensively but a clear step down on offense.

2B/SS Ronny Cedeno, Can play above average defense at SS or 2B and in just over 100 at bats this year has been almost exactly average as a hitter (99 OPS+). He hasn't hit well previously, 63 career OPS+, but is only 25 so figuring it out now wouldn't be unheard of, especially after spending most of last season in AAA OPSing .959

Matt Murton has shown he can both play left field, be a league average hitter and is young enough to expect progression from that. He's the clear choice of fill-ins for Soriano. DeRosa is having a career year at the plate while playing solid D, so I wouldn't do anything to mess that up. Houfpair, Patterson and Cedeno haven't proven they can hit major league pitching. Cendeno has come the closest to proving it and is a good defender so he'd be my second choice. Reed Johnson and Mike Fontenot can't hit and aren't good enough defenders to justify playing them with that bad of hitting.

Free Matt Murton

Are the Cubs for real? (offensive edition)

-The NFL draft is long gone and training camp is over a month away. The potential signing of Rosevelt Colvin is the only Colts news pending in the next few weeks. So I'm going to talk about the sport that comes in at a distance second to football.-

The Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball with 40% of the season already played. So are my Cubbies really a contender? To check I'll look at the role luck is playing in the outcomes
of the Cubs games to date and how Cubs players are performing compared to their career and recent history. Obviously the evaluation with be Sabermetrics based (in case that's a problem I'll define everything I use at the end), I'm strongly pro stats in football so it's not a stretch to guess I like them in a sport with more conducive format and where statistical analysis based management has brought success (why the Red Sox and A's are by 2nd and 3rd favorite teams: they are doing it right/righter so deserve success).

So lets start with the good, the offense. The Cubs lead the national league in runs scored, hits, doubles, batting average and on-base percentage.

The Cubs top performer offensively has been Aramis Ramirez. He's batting .299/.416/.507 for a OPS of .923, OPS+ of 137 and a VORP of 20.5 so far (on pace for 51.3).

So can Aramis keep that up?
In his four full seasons with the Cubs (I'm not using career numbers because he's clearly improved since he was one of the 5 youngest players in the majors in his first two years with the Pirates and because I think his over 2,000 place appearances in that time is a solid base to work from) he's never had a OPS+ lower than 126. His career best is 138. Last season his was 129. So overall he's performing outside of what is expected from his previous years.
How about how is he doing it?
His batting average his a bit below the .305 he's hit in the last four years combined and down from .310 last year, but not far out of line at .299.
His OBP is at a career high smashing .416. His previous best is .373, he's already topped his walk total from 2005. He's about 50 points over his OBP for the last 4 years. Why is he walking so much more and why isn't he having a career year since he is reaching base so much more?
His SLG average easily answers the second question. .507 is 40 points lower than he's ever hit in a full season in Chicago, which was last year. So he's getting on base a lot more, but hitting for less more for a total of a bit more production than he's averaged the last 4 years. Aramis Ramirez like the Cubs team as a whole is walking a lot more. The why I'll talk about in the end.

Alfonso Soriano was suppose to be the (expensive) solution to the Cubs offensive problems. How's that working out?
284/.330/.550 OPS .880, OPS+ of 123 and 5th in VORP at 16 runs (on pace for 40). Soriano is doing pretty well after a slow start. The OPS+ is an exact match of last seasons all-star performance, despite all three of his slash stats being worse (I'm assuming that would show he's been playing in less hitter friendly parks so far this season). His batting average, OBP and SLG are all in the range set by his last 3 seasons. So that monster contract is working out well so far.

So Aramis has been the most productive, but what about the face of the Cubs over the last few seasons, Derrek Lee?
He's hitting .283/.337/.509 for an OPS of .846, OPS+ of 115 and a team leading 14.3 runs of VORP (on pace for 35.8, 6th on the team) .283 is a 34 point drop from last season and a far cry from 2005 where he pushed for the triple crown (1st BA, 2nd HR, 7th RBI). Lee has averaged .308 in his four (really 3 1/3 since he missed 2/3rds of 2006) previous seasons with the Cubs. Even worse is Lee's .337 OBP. His OBP for his 3 full seasons as a Cub is .391. Lee isn't getting hits and isn't walking (as much he's still an above average hitter).
Finally some normalcy in his SLG. .509 is only a few points off of last year and is only below his .550 SLG for his Cub career because of his insane .662 SLG average in 05. The slugging average isn't out of the usual of his career or far from last year, but because Lee's batting average has dropped while his slugging stayed the same Lee is hitting for more power.
Lee is having his worst full season as a Cub so far, is nowhere near is amazing 2005 and has dropped off significantly from last year. He is hitting for more power, but walking and reaching base on hits less often.

So a star is underperforming but the team is still doing well, that means unexpected heros. Who are they?

Mark DeRosa is hitting .309/.397/.490 for an OPS of .883, an OPS+ of 128 and is second on the team in VORP with 19.7 (pace for 49.3). All of those would be career highs. DeRosa has been an above average hitter at his position only twice, though they were the last two seasons. After two slightly above average seasons it's not unreasonable to expect a 34 year old to be above average, but him being the second most valuable hitter on your team is a surprise. If you are looking for a Cub to fall off his current pace, DeRosa is it.

What about the rest of the lineup
Ryan Theriot looks more like the guy that put up an OPS+ of 135 in 53 games in 2006 than the well below average 74 OPS+ player last year. His line to date is .321/.400/.384 .784 OPS 104 OPS+. An average hitter at the shortstop position is good for a pile of VORP, 5th on the team with 15.9 (39.8). Theriot still isn't hitting for any power like in 2005, but his batting average is back up and he's walking a bit.
Centerfield is the Cubs offensive weak spot with Felix Pie, Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds all grading out as below average hitters, though Reed Johnson is above replacement level in center and Edmonds has been a touch above average for a centerfielder.

Edmonds .265/.321/.449 .770 OPS, 96 OPS+ so far as a Cub. Edmonds hasn't been above average since 2005, but was above average for 11 of the 12 seasons before that, usually by far.

Johnson .267/.342/.364 .706 OPS, 83 OPS+ Johnson is playing better than last season, but worse than his career OPS+ of 94.

Pie can't hit. .222/.286/.286 is awful .572 OPS, 49 OPS+, negative VORP and that's about what he did last year too.

Off the bench, Ward and Hoffpauir have been above average hitters. Cedeno and Blanco have been above average offensively for their positions. Fontenot has been above replacement level.

The Cubs came into the season with two highly touted rookies. There isn't really anything to compare them to, to see if their performance is sustainable, but how are they doing anyway?
Geovany Soto is hitting .281/.371/.538 OPS-.909 132 OPS+ third on the team in VORP with 19.3 (48.3 season). Soto's nearly tripled his career major league at bats already this season, but in 54 at bats last year he had an OPS+ of 175 and came into this year as a ROY frontrunner, so this season so far isn't totally out of the blue.

Kosuke Fukudome is hitting .295/.398/.424 for an OPS of .822 an OPS+ of 113 and is 7th in the team in VORP with 11.8. Kosuke leads the team in walks (but is second to Aramis in reaching base without a hit thanks to Ramirez's 7 HBP to go with a high walk rate.)

The Cubs were 15th in the NL in walks last season. Why are they walking so much more now? Well, what changed. Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto are now every day players. Both walk at a high rate. Soto draws a walk about once every 11 place appearances, Fukudome every 7. That's well above the league average. Fukudome and Soto are both in the top 20 in the majors in walk rate. So the Cubs added two guys that walk a lot, but that doesn't totally explain the team's huge jump in OBP and the rise of other Cub's walk numbers, Aramis, DeRosa and Theriot are in the top 30 in walk rate. The reason for those is that walks are contagious. by definition a walk requires at least 4 pitches. Most hitters don't average 4 pitches per place appearance, so taking a walk wears down a pitcher in addition to getting a runner on base and not making an out. Worn out pitchers aren't as good and very worn out pitchers get replaced by relievers who are generally relievers because they aren't good enough to be starters. If one (or two) players walks more it decreases the quality of pitching the rest of the lineup faces, increasing all of their offensive numbers.

So D-Lee is underperforming, DeRosa is playing over his head, but generally what the Cubs are doing is reasonable compared to their careers. The Cubs offense looks like it's for real.

Definitions-
Slash Stats (.###/.###/.###): the most common way of listing a players offensive production. Batting Average/On-base percentage/Slugging Percentage. A good quick way to see/say how a player is hitting and what type of offensive player they are.
Batting Average: Hits divided by place appearances. (H/PA) The percent of the time a player gets a hit (when he doesn't walk, sac bunt/fly, or get hit by a pitch).
On-base percentage (OBP): The ability of a player to not make an out. Sounds pretty important doesn't it? Sounds really really important. The number of times a player got on base divided by the number of times he came up to bat. (Hits+Walks+Hit by pitch)/(PA+Sac+Walks+HBP)

Slugging Percentage (SLG): like batting average but weighted to measure power. Singles=1, Doubles=2, Triples=3, Home Runs=4. Total bases divided by plate appearances.

On base Plus Slugging (OPS): On base percentage plus slugging percentage. A quick and dirty way to measure a players hitting ability. Not perfect because OBP is more important the SLG (a quick why paraphrased from Moneyball,

"a team with a OBP of 1.000 would get on base every at bat so would score an infinite amount of runs each inning since none of the batters ever make an out. A team with a SLG of 1.000 would likely score less. Two outs, followed by a homerun and another out would score only one run but would give an SLG of 1.000."

So OBP is more important than SLG, both are better the batting average and OPS combines them for a rough measure of a hitters value.
The league leader in OPS is usually a bit over 1.000
Great hitters are in the .900s.
Good ones in the .800s
Mediocre .700s
Bad "you better be amazing defensively" in .600s
Awful "you don't belong near the majors" under .600

OPS+: like OPS but better, OPS+ is adjusted to take into account different stadiums which have different effects on offensive production. An OPS of 100 is exactly average, 110 is 10% better than average, 90 is 10% below average. A more complete measure of a players offense on an easier to understand scale.

VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. Like OPS+ in that it values a hitters offensive production but it takes into account a players position, but not defense at that position, a great defensive SS is the same as hide-your-eyes bad SS. The number given is how many more runs a player produced for their team more than the team would get calling up the average AAA player at that position. A catcher, shortstop, or pitcher that hits well is more valuable than a first baseman, left fielder or DH because it's harder to find players to can play that position and hit well.

Top Pick Contracts are Insane

Darren McFadden signs with the Raiders, 6 years 60million 22 million guaranteed. That puts the top 4 picks' contracts at

Jake Long 5 years, 57.5 million, 30 million guaranteed

Chris Long-Unsigned

Matt Ryan- 6 years, 72 million, 34.75 million guaranteed

Darren McFadden- 6 years, 60 million, 22 million guaranteed

Jake Long gets a bigger contract the Orlando Pace (7 years, 52.9 million), Jonathan Ogden (5 years 50 mil) and Walter Jones (7 years, 52.5 million)

Chris Long will get more than Ryan did putting him over Dwight Freeney, formerly the highest paid defender in NFL history (6 years 72 million) and possibly over Jared Allen the new highest paid defender (6 years 72.36 million)

Matt Ryan gets more than every QB not named Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.

McFadden will make more per year than LaDainian Tomlinson (8 years 60 million)

Insane

My favorite team has a GM who doesn't miss on first round picks and finds cheap talent in the late rounds, so the owners can drag their feet as much as they like on this without bothering me, but those massive deals for guys that haven't proven a thing in the NFL are hurting the league.

Playoffs and draft order predictions

Records predicted with the method described here

My predicted AFC playoff field:
1. Colts 14-2
2. Patriots 13-3
3. Chargers 12-4
4. Steelers 10-6
5. Jaguars 10-6
6. Texans 8-8

My NFC field
1. Packers 11-5
2. Cowboys 11-5
3. Giants 11-5
4. Eagles 10-6
5. Seahawks 10-6
6. Bucs 9-7

The 2009 draft (ties broken by unrounded record then NFL's tiebreakers)
1. Raiders 3-13 2. Ravens 4-12
3. Dolphins 4-12
4. Cardinals 4-12
5. Lions 5-11 (strength of schedule 137-119)
6. 49ers 5-11 (SOS 120-136)
7. Bears 6-10 (SOS 139-117)
8. Falcons 6-10 (SOS 128-128)
9. Cheifs 6-10
10. Browns 6-10
11. Rams 7-9
12. Jets 7-9
13. Titans 7-9 (SOS 136-120)14. Bengals 7-9 (SOS 126-130)
15. Broncos 7-9 (SOS 120-136)
16. Bills 7-9
17. Panthers 8-8
18. Saints 8-8
19. Redskins 8-8
20. Texans (if they don't win the AFC)
21. Vikings 10-6
[Remaining Playoff Teams]

NFC Record Predictions

The AFC is the conference of extremes with the 3 elite teams (Colts, Pats, Chargers) and the bottom of the barrel (Raiders, Ravens, Dolphins), The NFC is more balanced (or I'm less familiar with the NFC so I have less high confidence predictions which bunches the records together).

With the method I described here I have finished my preseason predictions for the NFC in 2008.
Here they are in reverse order-

16. Cardinals 5-11
15. (tie) 49ers 5-11
15. (tie) Lions 5-11
13. (tie) Bears 6-10
13. (tie) Falcons 6-10
11. Rams 7-9
10. Panthers 8-8
9. Saints 8-8
8. Redskins 8-8
7. Bucs 9-7 (make playoffs as NFC South Champ)
6. Vikings 10-6 (miss playoffs)
5. Seahawks 10-6
4. Eagles 11-5
3. Giants 11-5
2. Cowboys 11-5
1. Packers 11-5

(ties broken by unrounded records, then NFL tiebreakers for playoff teams)

Playoffs and draft order tonight/tommorow

AFC Record Predictions

With the method I described here I have finished my preseason predictions for the AFC in 2008.
Here they are in reverse order-
16. Raiders 3-13
15. Ravens 4-12
14. Dolphins 4-12
13. Chiefs 6-10
12. Browns 6-10
11. Jets 7-9
10. (Tie) Bengals 7-9
10. (Tie) Titans 7-9
10. (Tie)Broncos 7-9
7. Bills 7-9
6. Texans 8-8
5. Steelers 10-6
4. Jaguars 10-6
3. Chargers 12-4
2. Patriots 13-3
1. Colts 14-2

NFC is done.

Picking Records

After the schedules come out there's always a flurry of win-loss predictions based on picking the winners of each individual game. I've always thought that was kind of dumb and subjective, even before you take into account how hard it is to now how well teams will play. Some games are obvious and would be a stunning upset others are difficult, could go either way and in my case at least are often decided in the interest making the final records turn out the way I expect them to. So last year I tried to use a method that was less dumb (but at least as if not more subjective). I ranked each game on a 1 to 7 scale:

1-I'm sure the visiting team will win
2-Visiting team probably wins
3-Leaning towards visiting team
4-No Idea
5-Leaning home
6-Probably home
7-Home wins

The games where I picked a winner I went 131-90 (59.3%) not bad, but I did pass on 25 of the hardest games to pick by giving them a 4.

To get records I averaged the my expected outcome certainty (separately for home and way since they would be opposites) and multiplied by 1.25 to get the records to fit a realistic spread, giving games above/below .500. Rounded a bit to get the records in whole games and got these:
(Exactly right, 1-2 win off, 3-4 off, 5-6 off, 7+ off)

Chargers 14-2 (3)
Colts 13-3 (0)
Patriots 12-4 (4)
Bears 12-4 (5)
Ravens 11-5 (6)
Bengals 11-5 (4)
Saints 11-5 (4)
Cowboys 11-5 (2)
Broncos 11-5 (4)
Jets 10-6 (6)
49ers 10-6 (5)
Eagles 10-6 (2)
Steelers 10-6 (0)
Jags 9-7 (2)
Giants 8-8 (2)
Rams 8-8 (5)
Seahawks 8-8 (2)
Chiefs 7-9 (3)
Panthers 7-9 (0)
Falcons 7-9 (3)
Packers 6-10 (7)
Titans 6-10 (4)
Bucs 5-11 (4)
Lions 5-11 (2)
Texans 5-11 (3)
Dolphins 5-11 (4)
Redskins 5-11 (4)
Vikings 5-11 (3)
Bills 4-12 (3)
Browns 4-12 (6)
Raiders 3-13 (1)
Cardinals 3-13 (5)

I was off by an average of 3.4 games. I didn't expect the Packers and Browns to be good, the Ravens, Bears and Jets to be bad and for some reason didn't expect the Cardinals, Rams and Niners (10-6 what was I smoking) to be mediocre. I know my Colts and apparently the Panthers, Steelers and Raiders pretty well.

The Pats and Dolphins fell outside what I thought was a reasonable spread for records, but neither of those is normal. So I'm going to leave the method the same. Starting work on predictions for the upcoming season right now, they should be up during the weekend.

(If anyone out there is interested in giving it a try e-mail me and I can send you the blank spread sheet that calculates the records from the 1-7 rankings or you could make your own system).

Awesome

The hit counter on this site tells when someone reaches my blog through a link and where the link was from (usually it's my SB Nation profile or a link from Big Blue Shoe at Stampede Blue), but I randomly checked it today for the first time in weeks and found something that made my day.

Someone found their way to my blog by typing a search into Google consisting of "Skip Bayless is a tool". I don't think I've felt more proud about what I'm doing blogging than I do right now. He is a tool, I wrote about a particular incident where he was a tool and people found it, read it, and said "yeah he's a tool."

2008 QB Cap numbers

Something I got curious about and dug up everything I could find.

Peyton Manning 18.7 Million
Tom Brady 14.6 Million
Carson Palmer 14.0mil
Donovan McNabb 9.40mil
Chad Pennington 9.00mil
Ben Roeslesberger 5.75mil (before his new contract I think)
Matt Schaub 5.75mil
Kurt Warner 5.00mil
Matt Leinart 4.58mil
Rex Grossman 4.5mil
Jason Campbell 4.08mil
McCown (MIA) 3.25mil
J.P. Losman 3.01mil
Aaron Rodgers 1.73mil
Kellen Clemens $847,500John Beck $844,500

PatsCap has links to a ton of sites with cap info, but not all are still up or well updated.

And I thought a Julius Jones jersey was bad

Saw a guy at work today rocking one of these:


Awesome

How long before the rookie help the Pats?

The Patriots spent all but one of their picks in the 2008 draft on defenders, but how long before this influx of youth brings young starters to an old D. Here's a breakdown of the Patriots starters last season and how long it took them to become starters.

06/07 no defensive starters, Meriweather (round 1) the only defender from those drafts on the roster.

2005
Ellis Hobbs (3rd round), full time starter in his 3rd season, Games started by year- 8,9,16
James Sanders (4th), starter 3rd year, GS-2,5,15

2004
Vince Wilfork (1st), starter 2nd year, GS-6,16,13,16

2003
Ty Warren (1st), starter 2nd year, GS-4,16,16,15,16
Eugene Wilson (2nd) starter 1st year (lost starting job in 2007), GS-15,14,16,4,6
Asante Samuel (4th) starter 3rd year, GS-1,8,15,15,14

2002
Jarvis Green (4th), 6th season, GS-4,7,1,5,4,10

2001
Richard Seynore (top 10), 1st season, GS-10,16......

2000-1997
No defenders currently on roster drafted

1996
Tedy Bruschi, 4th season, GS-0,1,7,14,16....

Picks by other teams
Rosevelt Colvin signed by Patriots after 4th season in the league. Became a Pats starter in 3rd year on team/7th in league.

Mike Vrabel signed after 4th season. Started in 1st season with Patriots/5th in league

The only current defenders to start for the Patriots as rookies were a 6th overall pick and a safety who later lost his starting job. None of the current LBs were starters before their 4th year in the league and Colvin needed two years of experience in the Pats system in addition to 4 with the Bears before he became a starter. D-linemen find there way into the lineup the fastest with Seymore starting as a rookie and Vilfork and Warren starting in their second year. 3 of the 4 starting DBs drafted by the Pats started in their 3rd season. LBs took the longest with none of the starters seeing the majority of starting time before they had been in the league for 3 or more years.

The Patriots' future on D might have been improved, but it will like take 3-4 years before this draft has any real effect to make the Pats D younger. Mayo is a fantastic player, but the demands of Belichick's defense will likely keep him on the bench for one, two or maybe up to three years. Wheatley might be able to work his way onto the field in a secondary depleted by free agency, but he'll likely follow the path of Hobbs and Samuel before him and spend 2 years learning before he's ready. Crable is an even surer bet to take years to be ready to play LB since early round picks made their way into the Pats lineup faster (really?, who'd have guessed that). The Pats have found DBs in the 4th round so Wilhite may contribute eventually. After the fourth round the majority of Pats draft picks especially on defense are cut and disappear off the map or spend their careers on the bench.

Jerseys (AFC edition)

The other day I saw a guy walking around in a #21 Cowboys jersey and the first thing I thought was, "why would anyone want a Julius Jones jersey? He wasn't even the best runningback on his the team when he was with the Cowboys. Marion Barber is obviously the best choice for a Cowboys jersey. Julius Jones isn't even on the team now. Why would you still wear it?"

Marion Barber being an easy choice for which Cowboys jersey I would wear if I was forced to wear one, I started thinking about more teams and which jerseys I'd want the least.

Colts-Bob Sanders, hands down. The only Colts jersey I've ever since worn in Iowa. Since all the Colts fans with jerseys in my town picked Sanders I almost want to go with Clark, but Bob is just too awesome.

Runners up (in order) Clark, Harrison (pending whether he shot someone for reasons other than self-defense), Manning

Least wanted jersey, Cato June. If Aaron Moorehead, Charlie Johnson or Gilbert Gardner replica jersey existed they'd all beat out June, but June is one of the few Colts I've disliked at any point in there time with the team and has moved on to Tampa

Titans-Chris Johnson, obviously. Not sure how I'll handle him playing the Colts. My man-crush was based on the Colts getting him, so the passion's nearly gone now, but I'm still excited to see him play.

Least, Vince Young. A VY jersey is just begging someone like me to just tear into Young and start an argument. Which the jersey wearer will lose because Young isn't very good.

Jaguars-Maurice Jones Drew. Gotta like one of the handful of NFL players that are shorter than me, even if it's only by fractions of an inch.

Least-Marcus Stroud, suspended for steroids and then traded away.

Texans-Andre Johnson. The lone bright spot on their offense. Mario Williams would be a good choice as well since after the pick was bashed everywhere he's outperforming all the guys suggested as better #1 overall picks.

Least-Ahmad Green. Big free agent signing, who everyone said was washed up. Turns out they were right. Washed Up.

Bills-Jason Peters, Late rounder to star LT

least-JP Losman, when a veteran gets outplayed by a rookie, especially a guy who barely made it into the first day of the draft they suck.

Dolphins-Jake Long, It's about hope when you root for a 1-15 team.

Least-Joey Porter, loud-mouthed, overrated, overpaid

Jets-Leon Washington. A great kick returner who was overshadowed by entering the league at the same time as Hester and Cribbs.

Least-Jonathan Vilma. Square pegs being forced into round holes is frustrating.

Patriots-Since they don't make Tim Dwight replicas, none, I refuse.

Least, Brady


Browns-Josh Cribbs, nearly as good as Hester as a returner without the fumbles and painful levels of stupid.

least-Brady Quinn, no idea why I hated him (pre-crotch grabbing/slur tossing) but I do know that hating him is fun and easy now.

Steelers-Roethlesberger. That awful season following his motorcycle got the writers off of his groin region enough for me to appreciate his skills.

least-any lineman (Faneca didn't suck but left the team so he makes the list)
If I have to pick just one it's Willie Parker. He hurts the Steelers more with his busts than he helps with his booms.


Ravens-Jonathan Ogden, can't go wrong with a HOF LT. Even if Freeney does own him.

Least-Ray Lewis, sailing on reputation for years. He's an average linebacker at this point in his career, but still gets the most credit for the hugely talented D he plays on.

Bengals-Carson Palmer, there aren't enough good QBs in the league.

Least-Chad Johnson. He when from entertaining to a locker room cancer pretty fast.

Chargers-Marmalard, don't know who that is, Then "Ya betta ask somebodddaaaaaaaaayyyyyy!"

least-Phillip Rivers. What a douche.

Raiders- Can I has Tim Dwight Jersey?
No?
Ok, Nnamdi Asomugha. The best defensive player that doesn't get the hype he deserves.

Least- Moss, how do you get an awful deal when the team you're trading with is desperate to dump the guy.

Broncos- Brandon Stokley. He was actually a solid #2 last year. It's very weird to see him in another jersey, but I still like the guy.

Least- Travis Henry, wearing that jersey is a statement and not a good one.

Cheifs- Tony Gonzalez, sad that an amazing player like him is stuck through his final years on a rebuilding team.

Least- Larry Johnson, the Herm Edward has ridden him into the ground he'll never be the same back again. 400+ carries is pretty much a death sentence for a RB.

The All-rookies-I-like team

In the leadup to the draft there are a lot of players that you really fall in love with. You know the chances of that individual player being taken by your team aren't great, but hopefully they'll grab a few guys you like. I followed a lot of players this year, so many that I'm going to continue my roster building with a full team of them. To be eligible a player must be a rookie and be drafted outside the top 20 (because just about everyone likes the top guys).

The format is:

Name, School, NFL team, round(pick#)
Comments

QB
Brian Brohm, Louisville, Packers, 2(56)
Brohm was the 3rd QB taken, but will be better than Matt "I'm so clutch except when I'm throwing almost 2 picks a game" Ryan, and Joe "Can throw a football threw the goalpost from my knees at midfield, but can't read a defense" Flacco.

Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State, Patriots, 3(94)
He was supposed to be a sleeper, but New England's "reach for everyone we like" draft strategy killed that.

Bernard Morris, Marshall, Unsigned, Undrafted
The man I hoped would be trying to knock the clipboard from Jim Sorgi's hands.

HB
Chris Johnson, East Carolina, Titans, 1(25)
If you don't think I made the cutoff at top 20 because top 24 would be too awkward and transparent you haven't been reading my posts long enough.

Matt Forte, Tulane, Bears, 2(44)
I really thought the Colts were getting Forte. Big Blue Shoe tried to warn me that the Bears loved him, but I assumed they would address the QB, WR and OL spots before replacing mega-bust Cedric Benson.

Mike Hart, Michigan, Colts, 6(202)
The third and final back that I thought would be there in the 2nd and be a fit for the Colts. I was more than ready to settle for Hart in the 3rd-4th round if the unthinkable happened and both Johnson and Forte were gone at #59

FB
Jacob Hester, LSU, Chargers, 3(69)
A versatile HB/FB combo who can block, catch and carry the ball. If the Colts didn't get Forte who blocks like a fullback, they could draft a real fullback who fits their scheme.

TE
Brad Cottam, Tennessee, Cheifs, 3(76)
Gigantic, an in-line blocker with solid hands and decent speed. Cottam would be a Utecht upgrade at best or replica at worst.

Jacob Tamme, Kentucky, Colts, 4(127)
Awesome hands, great speed, good routes, but not a blocker.

Joey Haynos, Maryland, Packers, Undrafted
Another Utecht replacement who could be had in the late rounds. A good blocker with solid hands, speed and route running.

WR
Earl Bennet, Vanderbilt, Bears, 3(70)
A guy that really came on strong and was one of two guys I wanted the Colts to take when their first pick finally came up. Great route running and hands. Not an eye-popping spectacular athlete but good across the board. Compared to Marvin Harrison.


Andre Caldwell, Florida, Bengals, 3(97)
Elite speed + good routes = Dangerous Receiver His hands had question marks, but it's thought to be lapses in concentration on easy passes instead of lack of ability that hurt him.

Keenan Burton, Kentucky, Rams, 4(128)

Arman Shields, Richmond, Raiders, 4(125)
Another potential sleeper that was jumped on by a team that liked him as much as I do. A great athlete who worked short routes very well, but struggled on deep routes mostly negating the advantage of his blazing speed.

Pierre Garcon, Mount Union, Colts 6(205)
Wasn't on my radar before the Colts drafted him, but I like what I found reading up following the pick. Dominated his competition at the DIII level. Could take over return duties for the Colts this season.

OL
Chad Rinehart, Northern Iowa, Redskins, 3(96)
An outstanding left tackle at the 1-AA level for UNI, Rinehart has the physical talent to remain
at left tackle. He's making a big jump, but could develop into a starting LT or a great option at RT/Guard.

Kory Lichensteiger, Bowling Green, Broncos, 4(104)
I knew the Colts would look to take a C/G type guy, I just didn't expect it in the second round. Lichtensteiger is a smart, versatile, athletic lineman.

Mike Pollak, Arizona State, Colts, 2(59)
Smart, athletic and versatile, just like all the other guys the Colts like. Pollak was rated the top center by many and top 2-3 by all.

Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers, Bucs, 3(83)
Very athletic in addition to being smart and versatile. Zuttah maybe be able to play tackle at the pro level.

John Greco, Toledo, Rams, 3(65)
I wanted a tackle to take over as the primary backup, insuring Charlie Johnson never played tackle in a meaningful game again. Greco was the right type of lineman (smart, athletic) in the right part of the draft (second day).

Doug Legursky, Marshall, Steelers, Undrafted
The Colts were one of a few teams that had scouts at Marshall's pro-day and Legursky is the type of lineman they like.

Thaddeus Coleman, Mississippi Valley State, Cardinals, Undrafted
A massive, aggressive (too often to a fault) blocker. Coleman isn't a phenomenal athlete but is athletic enough to play left tackle. He will need good technique since he doesn't have athleticism to spare playing LT. Could be a absolute force run blocking at RT. Needs to take it down a notch and stop drawing flags and starting fights with his over-aggressiveness.

DE
Quentin Groves, Auburn, Jaguars, 2(52)

Cliff Avril, Purdue, Lions, 3(92)

Marcus Howard, Georgia, 5(161)

Rudolph Hardie, Howard, Unsigned ,Undrafted

Titus Brown, Mississippi State, Dolphins, Undrafted

DT
Trevor Laws, Notre Dame, Eagles, 2(47)

Jason Jones, Eastern Michigan, Titans 2(54)

Carlton Powell, Virgina Tech, Broncos, 5(148)

Frank Okam, Texas, Texans, 5(151)

LB
Xavier Adibi, Virgina Tech, Texans, 4(118)

Phillip Wheeler, Georgia Tech, Colts, 3(93)

Geno Hayes, Florida State, Bucs, 4(175)

Ali Highsmith, LSU, Cardinals, Undrafted

Wesley Woodyard, Kentucky, Broncos, Undrafted

Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Boston College, Unsigned, Undrafted

Erin Henderson, Maryland, Vikings, Undrafted

DB
Antonie Cason, Arizona, Chargers, 1(27)

Brandon Flowers, Virgina Tech, Chiefs, 2(35)

Jack Williams, Kent State, Broncos, 4(119)

Charles Godfrey, Iowa, Panthers, 3(67)

Craig Sletz, LSU, Bears, 4(120)

Corey Lynch, Appalachian State, Bengals, 6(177)

Jamie Silva, Boston College, Colts, Undrafted

Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee, Bucs, Undrafted

K/P/LS
The Colts are set there so didn't look at any pre-draft. I'll go with the 1st kicker, only punter and only long snapper drafted.

Taylor Mehlhaff, Wisconsin, Saints, 6(178)
Kicker

Durant Brooks, Georgia Tech, Redskins, 6(168)
Punter

Tyler Schmitt, San Diego State, Seahawks, 6(189)
Long Snapper

According to the standard NFL pick value chart, for the cost of Jake Long and a mid-5th round pick a team could have the entire starting O (starting 11 without the situational players.

Instead of Chris Long and Jordan Dizon (pick #45 OLB) A team could trade back and draft the entire starting defense of my all-rookies-I-like team.

"Comments on the defense and the last few (4) roster spots are coming on the weekend."
Yeah, forget about that part. Talking about all the players the Colts didn't get makes me sad.

Your 2008 Indianapolis Colts

Here is my best and most optimistic guess of how the Colts roster will look on opening day, with a thought or two on each player. I'm projecting several veteran and undrafted rookie free agent signings.

QB-
Peyton Manning- The man, the myth, the legend, best QB in the NFL, The Colts wouldn't be what they are without #18.

Jim Sorgi-Hate him or feel somewhat confidant he's qualified to hold a clipboard all season, Sorgi looks to be the Colts backup for at the least one more season.

RB-
Joseph Addai- The lead head of what I hope will be a three headed Colts run game. Addai has his strengths in all the things that matter most for a Colts RB and his weaknesses in those that matter least.

Dominic Rhodes- Rhodes has never been a great runner, but he catches the ball, blocks and doesn't fumble. The definition of a solid backup.

Mike Hart- The rookie with the potential to be great. In college he was a hugely productive runner, never fumbled, pass blocked with effort and without fear and caught the ball well on screens and short routes. The not fumbling is a sure thing to translate to the pros. The others not as much. His size raises questions in his running and blocking ability and he will asked to do more in the receiving game in Indy. Whether he can stay productive will decide whether he's a draft steal or another great college player whose game doesn't work at the highest level.

TE-
Dallas Clark- Clark has wide receiver quickness and route running with tight end size and hands. The Colts gave him a long term extension that insures that he will frustrate opposing defenses and occasionally Colts fans for a long time.

Tom Santi- a.k.a. Ben Utecht 2.0, did they fix the fumble bug in the previous model? As long as they kept the blocking and catching up to the old levels he'll do fine.

Jacob Tamme- Compared to Clark constantly, with him the Colts give up some blocking in exchange for better hands.

WR-
Marvin Harrison- If the best receiver in NFL history not named Jerry Rice is healthy then the Colts are a much better team. He's nearing the end of the road, but if the knee heals he could still stick around for a long time.

Reggie Wayne-Wayne has stepped out of Marvin's shadow and if he hasn't overtaken him already he will soon. Wayne is a top 5 WR in the league as shown by his huge production without Marvin on the other side of him.

Anthony Gonzalez- Gonzo stepped up huge last year and will excel this season in the 3rd WR role he was drafted to play.

Roy Hall- Should be recovered from a nasty special teams collision that ended his season and unfortunately the other players career. Hall will be a special teams beast, putting his freakish athleticism to work while he continue learning the Colts offense.

Pierre Garcon- Garcon will compete with TJ Rushing for return duties and for the last receiver spot with Devin Aromashodu and several undrafted WRs. By the sixth round every D1 player remaining is a guy who has been outplayed and overmatched by some opposing players. He wasn't the best at his level so why would he be better at a higher level. Garcon demolished his competition at the DIII level. He'll be making a huge leap, but there's something to be said for a player who you have never seen outplayed.

OL-
LT Tony Ugoh- A force in the running game, Ugoh can blow up a D-end and take on a linebacker or safety before Addai catches up. He needs to improve his pass protection, but he wasn't bad as a rookie and showed improvement throughout the year.

LG Ryan Lilja- Another recently resigned Colt. Lilja is a good starter and young. He will be around playing well for a while.

OC Jeff Saturday- The oldest, but best man on the line. He's still the top center in the game. The Colts seem to have a succession plan in place, but Saturday should be kept in Indy beyond the year left on his contract. Center, like QB, requires intellegence, experience and technique more than physical ability, so Saturday's decline should be slow.

RG Dylan Gandy-Gandy has spent two years backing up the entire middle of the Colts line. He's now ready to step into the starting lineup, then likely cash in elsewhere when his one year RFA tender expires.

RT Ryan Diem- Diem is strong in run blocking and usually good at stopping the pass rush. He'll get beaten by the ocassional speed rush, but he's a right tackle, that happens. Diem is still very good, but a replacement should be on the front offices mind in the coming years as Diem ages.

OT Dan Federkiel- Last season Federkiel got injured and landed on IR just as he was finally needed. He never got a chance to show what he can do. He may not be a capable left tackle, but we do know the other backup tackle on the roster isn't.

OT/OG Charlie Johnson- I don't understand Johnson's struggles with speed rushers. Usually tackles can't handle the outside rush because they lack the athleticism to move with a speedy DE. Johnson started his college career as a tight end and has the 5 catches for 57 yards and two rushing yards to prove it. The Colts even used him as a tackle eligible at the goal line his rookie season and threw him a pass in the endzone (he dropped it).

OG/OC-Mike Pollak- The second round pick from ASU has a shot at the starting RG spot, but Gandy has three years in the Colts system and has been blocked in by estabilished starters the last two. Pollak will move into the starting lineup soon enough and provide quality depth in the meantime.

OG/OC David Justice- Justice will have to wait longer to find his spot in the lineup. He may be the heir to the Colts center position, but it's a bit early to count on that since he hasn't even put on a Colts jersey yet.

OL- Jamie Richards- I've heard talk he could play anywhere on the line. That kind of versatility would be a huge factor in him making the roster.

DL
RE- Dwight Freeney Freeney is constantly criticized for his run defense, so much so that I think he's become the opposite of the overrated, underrated guy. The guy that's been called underrated so much that everyone thinks he underrated, but is still called underrated until he becomes overrated. Freeney is the opposite of that guy. You mention Freeney to any casual to hardcore NFL fan and they'll tell you, "great pass rusher, bad run D." They might even call him overrated. It's been drilled into everyones head so well that it goes beyond the level that's correct. He's not a great run stopper, but the Colts don't foucs on stopping the run and Freeney does do a good job of holding up at the point of attack when he's asked to stay there, instead of rushing upfield. When he does shoot around the outside he not only applies pressure and draws blocks like few DEs in the game he completely shuts down outside runs to his side. OT struggle to keep Freeney out of the pocket, they aren't going to be able to come and get him on the outside. Freeney's been called overrated so many times that he's not overrated anymore. He is appropriately rated at worst and I feel his pretty strongly underrated to the NFL fan.

NT-Ed Johnson Solid is the word for Johnson. The Colts can be very good will him, but his starting position is the one that the Colts could find an upgrade the easiest. Johnson doesn't penetrate as well as the Tampa-2 design would hope.

UT-Raheem Brock Brock was really growing into the undertackle spot in the defense before his injury. He's bulked up and lost the speed to be a pass rushing DE, but retained the quickness to be disruptive in the middle.

LE-Robert Mathis Mathis was a great pass rush specialist and is a effective starter. With the influx of pass rushers behind him Mathis could move to more of a part time role that combines the value of using him in more than obvious passing downs, but keeps him from being gassed in the 4th quarter when he's needed the most.

DE-Marcus Howard The undersized speed rusher we all fell in loved with before the draft. Howard will spell Mathis and Freeney and help keep up the pressure.

DE-Rosevelt Colvin I have a confession to make. Not only would I welcome former patriot Rosevelt Colvin with open arms, I have rooted for a player while he was still a member of New England's NFL franchise. Tim Dwight the only graduate of my high school and one of only two players from my hometown currently in the NFL, was a member of the pats for a year. I rooted for him while he was. I have hoped on several occasions that Tom Brady threw a TD pass (only to Dwight. As soon as he left the game I hoped for a pick).

DE-Josh Thomas- The big run stopping DE, Thomas was extended for another year of backup work. He'll be phased out by the youth movement on the DL, but he's a useful player for now.

DT-Quinn Pitcock- Another solid nosetackle. He'll continue as Ed Johnson's backup holding down the middle as the big DT.

DL-Kenunta Dawson- Dawson has been great as a versatile lineman, subbing in all along the line. Hopefully his pass rushing moves continue to improve. He's one of the few linemen on the roster last year with the athletic ability to be a pass rusher threat.

DL-Darrel Reid- Special team ace, D-line depth. I think the Titans drafted Chris Johnson because they couldn't scrape last years 1st round RB Chris Henry off the RCA Dome turf.

DL-Rudolph Hardie
Unsigned last time I checked. Hardie could be Josh Thomas with pass rushing ability, with an outside shot at being the future at LE.

LB
WLB-Freddy Keiaho Brokeout huge last year, now it's time for two seasons of awesome LB play before he goes somewhere else to get paid.

MLB-Gary Brackett Brackett raised his game last season and deserved a pro bowl selection for it. He's the perfect fit in the middle of the Tampa-2 and will be leading the Colts defense for years to come.

SLB-Tyjuan Hagler The Colts extended Hagler's contract for a year and laid down 1.4 million to do it. That's a pretty strong vote of confidence coming from the Colts front office. Hagler will have a year to prove he deserves to get paid, it may not be by the Colts though.

LB-Clint Sessions Sessions stepped in as a rookie and made plays. Sessions is likely the future at one of the LB spots with Hagler in a contract year, Keiaho with two remaining and Brackett one of the oldest on the defense.

LB-Phillip Wheeler Wheeler could be moved to DE, but linebacker is a thinner position and where he's played in college. Plays very fast, despite what his combine numbers suggest. He'll spend a year or two on special teams while he refines his play recognition and zone coverage skills.

LB-Ramon Guzman A solid special teamer and depth to fill out the LB position. Guzman absolutely destroying a punt returner who made the wrong choice of whether to fair catch in preseason still sticks in my memory.

DB
DPOY-Bob Sanders Sanders is the man. I love him. He finally stayed healthy last season and the result was him being rightly recognized as the best defender in the league.

SS-Antoine Bethea A sixth rounder who became a pro bowler. Where did we hear that all draft long? But did Tom Brady win the starting job as a rookie in training camp? Bethea>Brady.

CB-Marlin Jackson It really says something when one of the worst 1st round picks the Colts have made under Polian is the #1 CB on one of the leagues top defenses.

CB-Kelvin Hayden Big, Physical corners are awesome. Hayden brings the big hit just like all the Colts DBs. His INT return the the superbowl was the most exciting moment I've ever had watching football.

NB-Dante Hughes Hughes looked ready to overtake Jennings as the nickelback late last year before injury sidelined him. Hopefully he'll win the spot before the opener.

CB-Tim Jennings The fast Colts CB, but out of position so much it doesn't matter. If I could ask Tony Dungy one question it would be why he was one-on-one with Randy Moss most of the pats game. He has the potential to be a great all around corner, but he'll need to show serious improvement.

CB-Micheal Coe
Another talented CB who fell to the Colts because he isn't a world class sprinter. He's good depth and will contribute in the future.

CB-TJ Rushing Very good on punt returns, ok taking back kickoffs, useful as a 4th CB. A wise use of a 7th round pick.

S-Matt Giordano Despite what Madden tries to tell you Giordano is blazing fast. The Madden creators giving Giordano below average speed is the most blatant racism I've ever seen in a video game.


S-Jamie Silva Can he play special teams well? Ok he's on the roster.

K
Adam Vinatieri The rumor was he was hurt most of last year. I hope it was true and that his playoff performance is the Vinitieri the Colts will be paying the big bucks for.

P
Hunter Smith Hunter the punter got on the fans bad side, but I still blame the coverage unit and coach more than him.

LS-Justin Snow I forgot him the first time through but that's how it is with a good longsnapper. If he does his job right nobody notices him.

Practice squad

FB Luke Lawton The Colts don't have a true fullback but most other teams do, which is why they keep one on the practice squad.

HB Kenton Keith Keith ran the ball extremely well last season, so another team should be quick to pick him up if he's cut but there's a lot of things other teams should do, but don't.

WR Devin Aromashado Not the kind of player you want on the field for large chunks of a playoff game, but he's not Aaron Moorehead either.

QB Josh Betts I got the idea into my head somehow that Betts isn't eligible for the practice squad anymore (there's a several year time limit.) I can't find anything to confirm this, so he may be back, but if not some undrafted rookie will begin his tenure as the Colts practice QB.

LB Brandon Acher LB is thin on the roster so they need to keep a few guys in the system in case of injury.

S Brandon Condren solid player, but never saw the field much as a rookie.

OT Micheal Toudouze He was the second best left tackle on the Colts roster last year, but we all know that two good quarters does not a good tackle make.

Stay in shape and by the phone-

TE Bryan Fletcher The odd man out with the addition of the two rookies. Fletcher's been in the system a while. If they do cut him they'll keep tabs on him.

DB Melvin Bullit played well in the few spots I saw him. He outjumped Randy Moss in the endzone, something very few players can say.

DE Jeff Charlston decent against the run, didn't really generate a pass rush.

HB Clifton Dawson didn't impress last season, but he was an undrafted rookie. If Keith is snatched up as soon as he's cut, Dawson is the natural replacement on the practice squad.

OL Mike Elgin Because Polian loves centers and I love Hawkeyes

LB Victor Worsley he's been on the roster and practice squad. If injuries happen he'll be moving up.

Undrafted Free Agents

Jeff Saturday, Gary Brackett, Ed Johnson, the Colts always find quality football players that weren't considered good enough to draft. Here's my favorites of the guys who were passed over.

Rudolph Hardie DE, Howard
A productive pass rusher with great size. He dropped because he played against lesser competition at Howard.

Titus Brown DE, Miss St
A productive rusher who is undersized and from a non-big name school

Erin Henderson, OLB, Virgina
Serious concerns about Henderson's history of knee injuries scared teams away, despite great talent and production

Ali Highsmith, OLB LSU
Horrible 40 at the combine marked the start of his fall. He plays fast and would be a fit for the Colts.

Bernard Morris QB, Marshall
A QB project. The Colts visited the Marshall pro day.

Wesley Woodyard OLB Kentucky
Another small quick LB that could excel in the cover 2

Dantrell Savage, RB Oklahoma State
Very undersized, but explosive back.

Robert Felton, OG, Arkansas
A powerful run blocker, who helped clear the way for #4 pick Darren McFadden and played alongside Tony Ugoh

Jonathan Hefney, S, Tennessee-Joey Dunbar LB, Boston College
A pair of special teams aces with the skills to play in the cover 2

Joey Haynos TE, Maryland
A big blocking TE, with the hands and route running to be a short to mid range target.

IM me

Questions, Comments, Cool links to share? Hit me up if you do and see me an AIM. Shake1n1baken. Look forward to hearing from you.

Draft Day thoughts

1. The sole goal Polian-Dungy Colts is to be the most boring, great team of all-time.
The Mike Pollak pick is another perfect example. He's the top center prospect in the draft and can play guard. Guard is a current need and Center is a future one. Pollak is likely to be a great player for a very long time. During that long span of likely future greatness he will go mostly unnoticed and Polian and Dungy will sit back and laugh knowing that they are one step closer to their goal.

2. The Titans picked Chris Johnson because they wanted me to hate them.
My feelings towards the Titans have ranged between several degrees of apathy in my NFL watching life. Before today I would describe my feelings towards them as being like those for an annoying and slightly incompetent co-worker. You don't like being around them, you have to clean up their mess sometimes, but at least they make you look good in comparison.
Now they picked my favorite Colts target when he doesn't fit their needs at all. There is no other reason for this pick, other than to provoke feelings of hatred that would make them a legitimate rival to the Colts. They can't be a threat to the Colts AFC South dominance, so they'll up the Titans-Colts rivalry by making the Colts fans hate them.

3. Brian Brohm will be a better QB the Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the product of the ESPN hype machine being so eager to crown the next super-amazing-clutch-star-QB that they can't even wait for the guy to play in the NFL before anointing him. They took Matt Ryan, solid draft prospect with a good arm solid experience decent college production and way too many stupid picks, into "Matty Ice" Crunch Time SuperStar. Ryan threw nearly as many picks last season as Brohm did in 3 years as a starter. Brohm changed offenses as a senior and kept his stellar numbers. Completion % predicts QB success better than any other measure. Ryan is totally mediocre. Brohm is the best of this below average class.

Since that pick was as unsexy as it gets

Tim Tebow's girlfriend:

Some awesome Colts pics

NES 7 round mock draft with analysis on every pick

Impressive piece of work. Only one pick that I hate, I think this guy is pretty good.
http://www.newerascouting.com/top_stories/483-final-2008-mock-draft-7-rounds-with-analysis/

59. Indianapolis Colts-Chris Johnson-RB-ECU
In a year where they don’t have a first round pick, the Colts can succeed in a big way if they land a return specialist like Chris Johnson here. Johnson is electric enough to come off the board much earlier, and Indianapolis would get the type of game-changer on special teams
that they have been craving.

Yeeeeeaaaah I love it.

93. Indianapolis Colts-Philip Wheeler-LB-Georgia Tech
The Colts have what appears to be a big mess at linebacker, and if luxury player like Chris
Johnson is the pick in round two, then the Colts definitely need to get a linebacker here in the third. Wheeler can be utilized as an effective blitzer from his linebacker position, and would give the Colts a nice situational guy who should develop into a starter in a couple years.

Booooooooo, WTF are you talking about. The Colts had some injuries but are bringing back all three guys that started most of the season and a backup would was very good as a rookie. They lost Rob Morris who was a veteran stopgap and would have lost his starting job before the end of the year if he hadn't gotten hurt first. Boiman was the other loss at LB and he's a career special teams/backup. They need to add a little depth, but they have consistently found solid LBs in the late rounds.
The Colts don't blitz, the send more than 4 rushers less than any team in the NFL. The Tampa-2 is all about 4 rushing, 7 in coverage. They sent 6+ rushers once every 40 plays in 2006. Unless they're converting Wheeler to a 3rd down end his pass rushing skills will be completely wasted.
Cliff Avril should go in this spot. He's a smaller speed rushing end to backup/spell Freeney and Mathis who wear down against teams that are pass heavy (The Patriots).

127. Indianapolis Colts-Frank Okam-DT-Texas
A bit of an enigma due to his massive size and strength, Frank Okam’s stock has dropped somewhere around this area in the mid to late fourth round. Okam has the potential to be dominant with some time, so the Colts could reap major rewards on this investment over time.

The Colts have solid depth at DT, but if he pans out his quickness could make him a big improvement over Ed Johnson.
I'd rather have John Greco in this spot to prevent Charlie Johnson from being the backup at both tackle spots.

161. Indianapolis Colts-Andrew Crummey-OG-Maryland
The Colts can’t get enough people to protect franchise quarterback Peyton Manning, so another guard here in the sixth round is always a good idea. Crummey looks the part of an NFL backup at the very least, so he should stick around in the league and find a role soon enough.

OL depth is a need, but if Jack Williams drops that far the Colts have to jump on him. He's a perfect tampa two corner and a good special teams player.

196. Indianapolis Colts-Brad Cottam-TE-Tennessee
At this point in the draft, it’s not a bad idea for the Colts to look for a little bit of insurance at tight end in the likely scenario that Dallas Clark has to miss some time. Cottam has great hands and could play a similar role to Clark if he can work his way up the depth chart.

I like it. Cottam has the size and blocking ability to replace Utecht as the Colts blocking/short route TE.

201. Indianapolis Colts-Marcus Henry-WR-Kansas
Even with a short national spotlight, Kansas’ Marcus Henry really hasn’t gotten a fair shake this year heading up to the draft. Henry is a big target who is relatively unproven, but could end up being a surprise for the Colts if they hang on to him.

202. Indianapolis Colts-Jacob Hester-FB-LSU
The tough-nosed Hester would fit well in a Peyton Manning led offense, and the Colts are set to take a fullback at least at some point here in the draft. Hester isn’t the best athlete you’ll find at his position, but his heart and love of the game should fit right in with the Colts.

The Colts could use depth at WR, but FB is a bigger need since they get HB/WR Chris Johnson instead of HB/FB Matt Forte. The empty spot is used for my favorite late round player Rudolph Hardie.

205. Indianapolis Colts-Ricky Santos-QB-New Hampshire
Not that Peyton Manning is being replaced or anything, but the Colts can stand to add another backup passer with this pick. New Hampshire’s Ricky Santos is an extremely intriguing prospect, and he should at the very least benefit from working with a superstar like Peyton Manning for a few years.

I'm not a Sorgi fan, but I'd rather continue to improve the Colts awful special teams with a guy like Corey Lynch.

236. Indianapolis Colts-Kennard Cox-CB-Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s forgotten cornerback is decent value for a team like the Colts who are looking to add depth in their secondary here in the draft’s final round.

Polian loves drafting DBs even when they don't really need them, but If they pick up Jack Williams and Corey Lynch before this pick they are set. Kory Lichtensteiger could be the Colts center of the future and depth across the interior.

My draft from the guys available. (picks I completely agree with the posted draft in bold)
2. Chris Johnson
3. Cliff Avril
4. John Greco
5. Jack Williams
6a. Brad Cottam
6b. Rudolph Hardie
6c. Jacob Hester
6d. Corey Lynch
7. Kory Lichtenstegier

2nd Round Mock (I can't feel my face)

32. MIA-Brian Brohm
33. STL-Dan Conner
34. ATL-Chad Henne
35. KC-Sam Baker
36. NYJ-Quinton Groves
37. ATL-Justin King
38. BAL-Charles Godfrey
39. SF-Duane Brown
40. NO-Kentwaan Balmer
41. BUF-Brandon Flowers
42. DEN-Earl Bennet
43. CAR-Joe Flacco
44. CHI-Malcom Kelley
45. DET-Ray Rice
46. CIN-Pat Sims
47. MIN-Tyrell Johnson
48. ATL-Tracy Porter
49. PHI-Dre Moore
50. ARI-Antonie Cason
51. WAS-Early Doucet
52. TB-Andre Caldwell
53. PIT-Chilo Rachal
54. TEN-Cliff Avril
55. SEA-Chris Johnson
56. GB-Reggie Smith
57. MIA-Shawn Crable
58. JAX-Chirs Ellis
59. IND-Matt Forte
60. GB-Anthony Collins
61. DAL-Donnie Avery
62. NE-Taravis Gooden
63. NYG-Xavier Adibi

I can't feel my face (warning explicit rap music)

My Mock (1st round + Full Colts)

I've waited as long as possible to get the latest info to make this mock, but tonight is the last night before the draft where my judgment won't be clouded by sedatives and painkillers (they're ripping a few unnecessary teeth out of my head tomorrow). Here it goes.

1. MIA-Jake Long
2. STL-Chris Long
3. ATL-Glenn Dorsey
4. OAK-Sedrick Ellis
5. KC- Vernon Gholston
6. NYJ-Darren McFadden
7. NE- Brandon Albert
8. BAL-Matt Ryan
9. CIN-Keith Rivers
10. NO-Mike Jenkins
11. BUF-Devin Thomas
12. DEN-Chris Williams
13. CAR-Derrick Harvey
14. CHI-Ryan Clady
15. DET-Rashard Mendenhall
16. ARI-Leodis McKelvin
17. KC-Jeff Otah
18. HOU-Jonathan Stewart
19. PHI-Limas Sweed
20. TB- James Hardy
21. WAS- Philip Merling
22. DAL-Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
23. PIT-Calais Campbell
24. TEN-DeSean Jackson
25. SEA-Martellus Bennet
26. JAX-Lawrence Jackson
27. SD-Gosder Cherilus
28. DAL-Felix Jones
29. SF-Jerod Mayo
30. GB-Fred Davis
31. NYG-Kenny Phillips

For the Colts
2. Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
3. Marcus Howard, DE, Georgia
4. Robert Felton, OG, Arkansas
5. Carlton Powell , DT, Virgina Tech
6a. Rudolph Hardie, DE, Howard
6b. Arman Shields, WR, Richmond
6c. Doug Legurski, OC, Marshall
6d. Corey Lynch, S, App. State
7. Bernard Morris, QB Marshall


So there's your winning entries into the Stampede Blue and New Era Scouting mock draft contests.

Todd McShay's 7 round mock

2. DT-Trevor Laws
3. OG-Chilo Rachal
4. TE-Jermicheal Finley
5. RB-Justin Forsett
6a. WR-Dorien Bryant
6b. LB-Alvin Bowin
6c. DE-Wallace Gilberry
6d. S-Jonathan Hefney
7. DT-Barry Booker
full mock
With Chris Johnson gone before #59 Trevor Laws is my next favorite, so I like that.

3rd round pick on guard is too early for a position where they just need depth. Dylan Gandy has played very well while backing up the entire interior line for the Colts the last two years and Charlie Johnson is competing with him for the spot opened up by Jake Scott going to the Titans. Between the two of them they definitely have a starting quality RG. They just need depth, that is easy found and coached up to NFL caliber by Howard Mudd in the later rounds, especially on the inside.

In the third they miss on Forte, Avril and Greco, three guys I'd love to have in the third and the first two I'd take in the second if Laws was gone. Jack Williams is a perfect fit for a two two corner and could step in soon as the nickelback and replace Hayden if he isn't resigned after the season.

TE isn't a bad pick in the fourth, but they have the chance to both fill their O-line depth need and grab a successor for Jeff Saturday with Kory Lichtensteiger. Mike Hart is also there if they want a replacement for the stone handed Kenton "I don't have to listen to police since I'm a NFL player" Keith.
Marcus Howard falls further than I've ever seen and would be my choice here and maybe even in the third round since I've rarely seen him last this long in a mock.

If the Colts don't go RB earlier, Forsett is a decent pickup in the 5th, but he isn't a great Colts fit. Kellen Davis could fill the Ben Utecht, blocking and dumpoff pass TE role well.

In the sixth, I'd take Robert Felton over Dorien Bryant, Arman Shields instead of Wallace Gilberry and Marshall center Doug Legurski if they don't get Lichtensteiger.

Rudolph Hardie, one of my favorite late round players goes undrafted. I would take him in the sixth if not earlier.

My picks from who McShay has available
2. DT Trevor Laws
3. CB Jack Williams
4. RB Mike Hart (the NES guys have me a bit down on Howard and if the Colts don't get Johnson or Forte, there are many good fits left for them at RB)
5. TE Kellen Davis (Marucs Howard if he was there like in the mock, but he won't be)
6a. OG Robert Felton
6b. WR Arman Shields
6c. DE Rudolph Hardie
6d. OC Doug Legurski
7. DE Titus Brown

Continued Draft Board

After an impassioned speech by Bill Polian in protest of the rising value of rookie contracts and their franchise crippling effects, the 32 NFL GMs agree to allow time to expire on every pick of the first day of the draft, eliminating all of the picks in the first two rounds. As the draft's first day nears it's end and the Colts come onto the clock for the first time at #59. Polian leaps from his seat, laughing manicically with an index card in hand he reaches NFL commissioner Rodger Goodell at the Podium and hands him the card, as all the other GMs look on in stunned silence. "With the 1st pick in the NFL draft the Indianapolis Colts select..."

Who's name is on the card? Here are my best guesses;
1. Glenn Dorsey (reasoning for first five picks here)
2. Sedrick Ellis
3. Chris Long
4. Vernon Gholston
5. Jake Long

6. Keith Rivers, Phenomenal athlete with great football intelligence and size. Can cover, run stop and showed blitzing ability in limited attempts. Fast enough to run step for step with any TE. Needs a little polish in zone coverage, but has all the tools and solid ability already. Not a big hitter, but rarely misses tackles. Main concern is that he will never be an elite player, just very good for a long time. Keiaho shifts to SLB and Hagler is benched/not resigned once Rivers is ready.

7. Darren McFadden, Fumble and character concerns have me a little down on him. He's best suited for a tandem attack which he will be in with the Colts. Explosive runner with breakway speed to contrast Addai's consistent "low risk, medium reward" run style. McFadden is a receiving threat and solid blocker. His throwing ability makes gadget plays an option, but those aren't a common sight in the Colts offense. Just make sure someone remembers to leave some condoms in his locker.

8. Derrick Harvey, a top speed rusher with ok size, Harvey is compared to Dwight Freeney. He uses speed around the edge to get to the QB with regularity. He gets overpowered too much in the run game, but is improving. Pursues and tackles well. As close to cloning Freeney and sticking him on the left side as you'll find this year.

9. Jonathan Stewart, the top power back of the draft, Stewart is a massive 5'11" 235. Runs through defenders and has no fear of (actually seems to enjoy) contact. No fumble concerns. He showed soft hands on screens, but wasn't used often as a receiver otherwise. Has the tools to be a elite pass blocker, but was rarely asked to block so his ability is mostly unknown. A bit of a risk since his skills in two of the most important Colts RB traits are uncertain. He will

10. Rashard Mendenhall, a power runner with good athleticism. Mendenhall has great hands and is a experienced pass blocker, although he needs to continue improving technique in that area. The history of Big-Ten vs Pac-Ten backs broke the virtual tie. A piece I can't find now that I think was at Pro-Football-Reference.com makes a convincing case that Big Ten RBs are often overrated compared to Pac-10 backs, likely by the conferences opposite pas-run leanings (less pronounced now than traditionally, but still present). This gives the Big Ten runners large yardage totals that wrongly take precedence over running efficiently. (They also make the case for Big Ten QBs and WRs over those of the Pac 10 on the same line of reasoning).

Full Draft Board

There is a good chance the Colts don't get Chris Johnson, so I'm going to rank some more
players the Colts won't be able to get, but would love to draft. I'm going full on into fantasy land and starting at the top. If I was running the Colt's draft (and you can be happy that they have someone much, much better) here's what my draft board would look like.

1. Glenn Dorsey
Dorsey would be a dominating nose-tackle in the Tampa-2, Matt Miller even compares him to the original dominant Tampa-2 nose-tackle Warren Sapp. Great size with an amazing first step.

Could Be As Good As:Warren Sapp
Exceptional quickness and great short quicks. Dominates in 10-yard and under sprints.

Dorsey would not just replace the pass rushing nose-tackle they lost when McFarland blew out his knee, he would be an improvement. The best DT of the Dungy era by far. The quickness of that line would be unmatched. All four would be in the backfield before the QB could even look up.
Injuries are the only major concern for Dorsey, but he appears to be well healed from the leg injury that hampered up last season.

2. Sedrick Ellis
A little less athletic and disruptive in the passing game than Dorsey, but still an amazing player who will do all the same things, just not quite as good.

3. Chris Long
Bigger than both Freeney and Raheem Brock, and much bigger than Robert Mathis, Long could play both left end and the under tackle spot (in passing situations). He isn't an elite speed rusher, but gets to the QB just fine anyway. Drafting Long would move Robert Mathis back into a backup/3rd down rusher role, which I think is a waste, but some people like.

4. Vernon Gholston
An elite speed rusher with a variety of other moves Gholston rushes the passer better than anyone in the draft. Run defense and consistent focus are his weaknesses. Gholston would initially backup both end spots but if he improves in run defense his size would give up an advantage over Robert Mathis for a starting spot.

5. Jake Long
The likely #1 overall pick falls because tackle is not a pressing need for the Colts. His talent is too great for him to fall any lower. The main knock on him is questions of whether he can handle the left tackle spot in the pros. With Tony Ugoh locked in as the Colts franchise LT, Long can settle into a spot he is sure to dominate at right tackle. Ryan Diem is a good starter, a powerful run blocker and only struggles against the best of the speed rushers, but Long is a class above him. A dominating run blocker with great athleticism (he's a possible Pro LT). He'll seal off Peyton's front side even vs the fastest left ends. Long may start at guard temporarily if he can't immediately unseat Diem. Diem started his career at guard and moved back there when his mobility was limited by injury. No matter who's the guard and who's the tackle a right side of Diem and Long, along with Ugoh, Lilja and Saturday rounding out the line, would be the best in the league.

More Later

I will never forgive TheSportsGuru

Stealing Chris Johnson from me in the Mocking The Draft fan draft is unforgivable.

Cool Time Killer

For the football addicts out there. It's a good distraction when all the fumbles in Madden 08
get to me.

Goal Line Blitz

Free to play. There's an option to put down some money to boost your player or create more players, but I'm doing fine without giving them money. I'm currently playing DB for a South American minor league team. Check it out. I like it and it's no investment in money and very little required in time.

Mock Draft Breakdowns

Here is where the players I expect the Colts to target are predicted to go in the seven latest 3 round mocks on Hail Redskins Mock Draft Database.

Player
OLB Xavier Adibi
3rd/#74/CAR 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#62/NE
3rd/#83/TB 2nd/#63/NYG 2nd/#40/NO

DT Trevor Laws
2nd/#40/NO 2nd/#53/PIT 2nd/#52/TB 2nd/#50/ARI
2nd/#36/NYJ 2nd/#55/TEN 3rd/#68/ATL

RB Chris Johnson
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#44/CHI 2nd/#45/DET
2nd/#50/ARI 2nd/#50/ARI 3rd/#66/KC

DE Cliff Avril
2nd/#54/TEN 2nd/#51/WAS 2nd/#54/TEN 3rd/#86/SEA
3rd/#75/SF 2nd/#59/IND 2nd/#58/JAX

RB Matt Forte
3rd/#67/CAR 3rd/#86/SEA 3rd/#76/DET Not in 3 round mock,
2nd/#6o/GB 3rd/#93/IND 3rd/#87/DET

DE Marcus Howard
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#60/GB 3rd/#88/PIT Not in 3 round mock,
Not in 3 round mock, 3rd/#88/DET

TE Martellus Bennet
3rd/#78/NO 3rd/#97/CIN 2nd/#47/MIN 2nd/#55/SEA
Not in 3 round mock, 2nd/#55/SEA 2nd/56/GB

TE John Carlson
2nd/#62/NE 3nd/#72/BUF 2nd/#60/GB 2nd/#56/GB
3rd/#94/NE 2nd/#57/GB 3rd/#71/BUF

Times available at #59/Times available at #93. Out of 7
Laws 1/0
Johnson 1/0
Avril 3/0
Bennet 3/2
Adibi 5/0
Carlson 5/1
Forte 6/2
Howard 7/3

So this gives a general idea of the availability of these players.

* Some of the pick #s will be off +/- 1 because some mocks count the Patriots forfeited pick in the numbering and some don't

Draft Tek, why hast thou forsaken me

I write a post pimping them

and in their next sim they piss me off.

They have the Colts passing on Chris Johnson and Cliff Avril to take TE Dustin Keller. Keller is a nice player but not a need like Avril and won't have the impact of Johnson. If the Colts take a TE early to replace Utecht, he has to replace Utecht. Utecht was a blocker first and then a safety valve for dumpoffs. Keller is a receiving TE. He's a bulked up WR. The Colts don't need a TE that duplicates what they already have in Clark and Fletcher. If the Colts are going to stick with a two TE set as the base the other TE must be a blocker or else they might as well put Gonzo in instead of the second TE.

Johnson and Forte both come off the board before the Colts 3rd round pick as does Avril. Because they passed on a RB they then take Kevin Smith in the 3rd passing on Bruce Davis and Marcus Howard who are going within 6 picks. To fill the DE need they reach for Tommy Blake causing them to miss out on Arman Sheilds, Rudolph Hardie and Jacob Tamme (who a now like less after thinking about the problems with the Keller pick).

So to get Keller, they miss on the two ideal backs, don't get one of the targeted pass rushers and can't take the best late round guys. If they are going to take a TE in that situation, take Cottam, at least he's gigantic and a solid blocker. I would hate that pick significantly less.

Hate it, Hate it, Hate it.