Late Update

Took two days instead of one (I never get anything done on my days off), but here's the rest of the Mock List update.

DE/DT Jason Jones, (3rd round) A big DE with experience at DT and good quickness. Probably a fit with the Colts in the DT rotation (though it's pretty solid as of now) and as the big DE (Josh Thomas' role).

DE Marcus Howard NFL.com's evaluation sounds extremely similar to Robert Mathis pre-draft profiles; A DE with great production in college, but thought of as too small to play and has little/no experience at LB. Could be a good situational pass rusher available in the middle rounds.

And finally Draft Tek makes my night (so far, maybe I'll go out later like a normal person) by making Chris Johnson the Colts 2nd round pick.

New Prospects

The Mock drafts are picking up following the combine. Here are the newcomers to the Colt's list.

DT, DeMario Pressley
A big run stopping double team absorber, not really a fit for the Colts since he does little more than hold his ground (very, very well).

LB, Jerod Mayo
A fast aggressive LB, played both inside and out in college

-Adding more tomorrow, time to sleep-

Painful Cuts and Spending $$$

Anthony McFarland and Rob Morris were cut today after failing their physicals. It's sad to see two more quality well-liked players leave the Colts that way (it was Brandon Stokley and Monte Reagor last year). On the bright side for the Colts they now have another 8 million in cap room to work with, putting them more than 10 million under the cap. Let's ease the pain of losing two great guys by spending that 10 million.

10.5 million minus

-3.5 million for draft picks (picks from rounds 2 to 7 for Colts last year 3.2mil)

-1.86 million for 4th round tenders on Giordano and Gandy (930,000 each)

-1.o7 million for new contracts for Darrell Reid and Ben Utecht (guessing both made 435,000 last year so a 100,000 (23%) raise should do it

-600,000 for league minimum deals for Ed Johnson and Thorpe (Exclusive rights free agents)

-500,000 for Fletcher or Seidman, coaches choice since we never got to see Seidman play due to injury

That leaves 2.97 million left with Jake Scott, Josh Thomas, Rocky Boiman, Dan Klecko, Aaron
Moorehead and Bryan Fletcher or Mike Seidman as the Colts FAs remaining.

Scott is gone unless the free agent market for him totally collapses, Boiman isn't needed after being replaced by Hagler as a starter and Sessions as a backup, Klecko hardy saw the field last season, Moorehead sucks, and if Seidman hadn't gotten hurt and IRed either him or Fletcher would have been cut anyway. That leaves Josh Thomas, he's valuable as the big DE subbing in, but isn't anything special. Resigning him is the backup plan for what I'd really like-

I'd like to sign Travis LaBoy here, the only contract guesstimate I could find has him at 4.5 million a year, by backloading the deal that's possible to fit into 3 million in cap room this year or they could dip into the savings from Clark's extension (which I haven't counted since I don't know how much it'll be).

So, bring back Giordano, Gandy, Utecht, Reid, and a 3rd TE and let Scott, Thomas, Boiman, Klecko, Moorehead and Fletcher-Seidman go, then sign LaBoy.

(All cap numbers from the awesome Colts Cap.Net)

Another round of Mocks

and three new Colts picks

OT, Carl Nicks (profile) a massive tackle with experience on both ends of the line.

DT, Pat Sims a very big DT, but may be athletic enough to fit with the Colts, the writer of the mock draft seems to know something I don't stating, "Booger McFarland is now gone."

DE, Cliff Avril (profile) a undersized tweener end with good speed and pass rushing skills.

I <3 Chris Johnson

The runningback for ECU is now my favorite prospect by far. He was already my favorite before today, I already knew he was fast, could return kicks, play wide receiver or runningback and averaged 6 yards a carry in college but today he went out and absolutely flew in the 40. He ran the best time of the 08 combine to date and one of the fastest ever, 4.24 seconds.

Now the only question is will the Colts have to trade up to get him and should they? (if it's not far I say "yes, yes, yes please yes.")

A prospect for the Utecht Haters

Martellus Bennett, the 6'7" 250lb Tight End from Texas A&M. He could fill both the blocking TE and big redzone target roles for the Colts. He's an excellent blocker with good hands, but is a bit slow and needs work on his route running. He could more than fill Utecht's role. He has the same strengths, but many of the same weaknesses, including this scary phrase in his profile, "Does not always secure the ball."

Is super-size Utecht worth a 2nd round pick? He's ranked #33 overall by Matt Miller and #32 by Scout.com, others are less high on him, but it's unlikely he'll be around by the time the Colts have their 3rd round pick. With Tight Ends and O linemen working out at the combine today he's a guy to watch.

Great profiles/list

NFL.com has posted a ton of great prospect profiles, so I'm going to link the profile of every player from the mock draft list. Hopefully this will make a neater list of possible Colts draft picks and give great info. The number in parenthesis (#) is the prospects rank in the draft class from Matt Miller at New Era Scouting and Mocking the Draft, The number in brackets [#] is the rank by scout.com.

RBs
Chris Johnson (#59) [#37]
Matt Forte (#48) [#82]
Ray Rice (#107) [#85]
Tashard Choice (#86) [#134]
Jacob Hester (#122) [#198]
Dantrell Savage (#179) [#157]

WRs
Chris Johnson* (#59) [#37]
Devin Thomas (#73) [#24]
James Hardy (#75) [#66]
Andre Caldwell O_O (#99) [#49]

TEs
Fred Davis (#39) [#22]
Martellus Bennett (#33) [#32]
Jacob Tamme (#127) [#130]

OL
Carl Nicks (#65) [#27]
Branden Albert (#50) [#57]
Roy Schuening (#69) [#93]
Tony Hills (#90) [#90]
Robert Felton (#97) [#59]
Chilo Rachal (#128) [#121]
Heath Benedict (#115) [#116]
Eric Young (#185) [#73]
Drew Radovich (#188) [#86]
Oneil Cousins (unlisted) [#33]
Chad Rinehart (unlisted) [#122]


LBs
Xavier Adibi (#35) [#74]
Geno Hayes (#57) [#67]
Phillip Wheeler (#74) [#71]
Bruce Davis (#80) [#125]
Jerod Mayo (#70) [#72]

DEs
Chris Ellis(#54) [#47]
Phillip Wheeler* (#74) [#71]
Darrell Robertson (#111) [#61]
Bruce Davis*(#80) [#125]
Cliff Avril (#161) [#79]
Jason Jones (#120) [#146]
Jeremy Thompson (#157) [#186]
Marcus Howard (unlisted) [#160]

DTs
Pat Sims (#55) [#45]
Dre Moore (#85) [#68]
Frank Okam (#41) [#119]
Red Bryant (#105) [#107]
Demario Pressley (#108) [#131]
Jason Jones* (#120) [#146]


*=I know I listed him twice he could play either position

my thoughts on these players can be found here

Update

New Mock Picks
2nd round
DT, Red Bryant, (profile) (profile2) Finally everyone's favorite part of the mock draft season, calling someone a moron for not knowing which type of player fits into each of the 32 team's systems. Huge (6'5" 330lbs), neither quick nor fast and having little impact as a pass rusher Bryant is not a Colts DT.

3rd round
WR, Andre Caldwell, (profile) A big play threat with the hands that caught the most passes in the history of the Florida Gators. Caldwell is fast, runs good routes and is quick out of cuts. At 6 foot 200lbs he looks like the rest of the Colts WR corps.

OT/OG Heath Benedict (profile) Like Rinehart, a small school star, all the tools, but didn't face top competition. Benedict began at Tennessee, but academic problems caused his move to D-II.

Two new 2nd rounders

More guys someone out there thinks the Colts will draft.

LB, Phillip Wheeler, (profile) (profile) A fast, aggressive, undersized linebacker with solid coverage skills. Fits into a cover two at OLB. Experience and sack production at DE and MLB in college makes blitzing or using him as a rush end an option.

DE, Jeremy Thompson (stats) a big DE without huge sack production, he was strong against the run. After initially dismissing this pick I realized he could fix the depth at DE in the opposite way than I had been trying to, by taking snaps away from Freeney/Mathis in running situations keeping them fresh, instead of finding another great pass rusher to replicate what they do.

Full list is here

Restricted Free Agency

A NFL feature that only a Madden Franchise Mode addict could understand and enjoy. Here are the Colts RFAs for 2008 with their draft round (important in a minute):

Update: all five RFAs received the lowest tender amount ($930,000), if they are signed by another team the Colts can match the contract or receive a draft pick in the round that the player was originally drafted in.

TE, Bryan Fletcher (6th round)
OG/C, Dylan Gandy (4th round)
S, Matt Giordano (4th round)
DE/DT/star special teamer Darrell Reid (undrafted)
TE, Ben Utecht (undrafted)

Here's the simplest explanation of restricted free agency I could write, (copy pasted from Monday's post):

Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.

Here are the contract tender levels that the Colts have to choose from:

$2.35 million	First- and third-round
$1.85 million	First-round
$1.3 million	Second-round
$850,000	Determined by RFA's original draft status

Both Gandy and Giordano are useful players and their 4th round draft status will either scare teams away or give enough compensation to the Colts if they're given the 850K tender. Gandy could step into either guard spot and start. With both starting guards FAs they can't let their backup go too. Giordano is a good backup safety (he's both Sanders' and Bethea's backup) can play CB in the dime (like he did in the Superbowl), contributes on special teams and is unbelievably fast (almost caught Hester in SBXLI, still ran the 40 at the combine even with a torn pectoral that forced him to keep one arm at his side the whole time. His time was a 4.5)

I would like to see Utecht, Fletcher and Reid all back but the lowest tender offer would nearly double their cap charge from last year and provide no compensation for Utecht and Reid if they left. The Colts need to roll the dice and not offer them a tender or get an extension for less than the tender amount done before the 29th when Free Agency begins. Without a tender offer they'll become free agents and can return at closer to their 2007 salaries. Hopefully no other team has fallen in love with any of these three as I'd love to see them back.

Colts Free Agent List

I had trouble finding a list of all the Colts free agents a while back. Colts Cap has the best one I've found, but I didn't find that while looking for a free agent list. So I'll list out the guys they have as FAs here and hopefully help any curious Colts fans searching the web.
Updated: 3/1/08, 3/11/08

Unrestricted FAs-
Rocky Boiman, OLB
Dallas Clark, TE/WR (Resigned, 6yrs-36million)
Dan Klecko, DT/FB
Ryan Lilja OG (Resigned, 5yrs-20million)
Aaron Moorehead WR
Jake Scott OG (Signed with Titans, 4yrs-20million)
Mike Seidman TE
Josh Thomas DE

Restricted FAs*-
Bryan Fletcher, TE (Tendered-$930,000)
Dylan Gandy, OG/C (Tendered-$930,000)
Matt Giordano, S (Tendered-$930,000)
Darrell Reid, DT/DE/special teams ace (Tendered-$930,000)
Ben Utecht, TE (Tendered-$930,000)

Exclusive Rights FAs**-
Ed Johnson DT (Resigned, 1yr 370,000)
Craphoso Thorpe WR/KR (released)

*=Restricted Free Agents are players whose contracts are up but have only 3 years of NFL service. Teams have the choice of 4 different contracts (tenders) to offer a RFA. If a team makes any of these offers the player does not become an unrestricted free agent (they stay under their teams control). Once an "tender" is made to a RFA other teams can negotiate with the player and agree to a contract. If an RFA and team come to an agreement on a contract the RFA's former team can match that contract and keep the player. If they choose not to match the offer the RFA's former team receives a draft pick from the players new team, the round that pick is in is determined by which tender amount that was originally offered.

The tender levels, their $ amount for 2007 and the draft compensation for them:

$2.35 million	First- and third-round
$1.85 million	First-round
$1.3 million	Second-round
$850,000	Determined by RFA's original draft status

**=Exclusive Rights Free Agents are players with only one or two years in the NFL. Their former teams can prevent them from becoming unrestricted free agents just by offering them a contract for the NFL minimum.

Colts Cap/Free Agents

Cap room is the biggest determining factor in how a team approaches free agency. I rediscovered this awesome site, Colts Cap, that will provide (roughly) the limits of what the Colts will be able to in the upcoming months.

They put the Colts as being 9.7 million under the cap as of the end of January.

That 9.7 million is to be split between the Colts' 15 free agents, 6+ draft picks and any undrafted rookies or other teams FAs the Colts would like to add.

The FA's:

Dallas Clark, The Colts say they will franchise tag him if they do not get an extension done.

The Franchise tag is a one year contract worth the average salary of the top five players at the same position as the tagged player. A tagged player does not become a free agent while under the tag, regardless of whether they have signed the offer.

The TE tag would cost 4.5 million for the non-exclusive tag (which would allow other teams to negotiate a contract with Clark, but the Colts would have the option of matching that contract and would receive two first round picks as compensation if they chose not to match). The exclusive tag, which the Colts used on Freeney, does not allow teams to negotiate with the tagged player, but is more expensive since it would be calculated using the average of the top 5 salaries for the current year (2008) instead of 2007. There was a difference of one million between the two tags at the TE position last year.

So 4.5 million off the cap for Clark if he's tagged, maybe only 3 to 4 million if they get an extension done.

That leaves between 4.2 and 6.7 million. Ed Johnson and Craphonso Thorpe are exclusive rights free agents, meaning as long as the Colts offer them the minimum salary ~300,000 they can't sign with any other team. Johnson is worth that without a doubt and Thorpe provides depth at receiver and another option for a return man so he'll get the minimum.

Before anyone else is signed the Colts need to save some of that 3.4 to 6.1 million for signing the next wave of awesome Polian draft picks and undrafted rookies. The Colts don't have a first round pick so most of the cost of the draft doesn't apply to them. Here's what the Colts draft picks counted on the cap last year. All picks besides Ugoh were at the end of the round.

1st round Gonzalez, 1.1 million
2nd round (pick #10) Ugoh, $650,000
3rd round, Hughes, $437,500
Pitcock, $430,000
4th round, Condren $382,000
Sessions $377,500
5th round, Hall $321,687
Coe $319,500
7th round, Dawson $295,375
Undrafted rookies, FA additons, Practice Squad
$4 million

So 3.2 Million just for the 2nd through 7th round picks last year and another 4 million in other new players. The FA number should be less this season since the Colts struggled with injuries last season and currently have 61 players on the roster.

Assuming all the FA additions and practice squad are among the 61 on the roster that leaves between $200,000 and 2.9 million for the 12 remaining FAs and undrafted rookies.

Cuts are coming.

New names

Additions to the mock Colts picks list:

2nd rounders
DE, Darrell Robertson (profile) (another) a pass rushing specialist with the frame to add weight. 6'5" 240-250. Labeled a tweener, but may be bigger than Robert Mathis already.

WR, James Hardy (profile) A giant (6'7") WR to contrast the trio of 6 footers the Colts have at the 1-3 spots.

3rd rounders
LB, Geno Hayes, a quick LB that can cover the pass well and isn't a liability against the run

FB Jacob Hester (profile) another HB/FB tweener. Good hands, converts short yardage situations often and is great on special teams. Not fast or explosive as a HB and not a powerful lead blocking FB.

Full list is here

Instead of posting tons of awesome content today

I did even better. Far more than I could write and it's all probably better too. Scroll down and on the right hand side is every sports site I read regularly. Feel free to comment or E-mail me more sites, I always have time to kill reading about sports.

More Mocks

http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/mock-indy-picks.html

The consensus so far looks like Best Guard Available or LB Xavier Adabi.

Q: Who is more dominant in there respective sport, Tiger Woods or Tom Brady?

A: Eli Manning

Mocks added/updated

http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/mock-indy-picks.html

or scroll down.

looking back

My second favorite team in my favorite sport went 1 and 18 this year. After their 0-18 start I thought they'd never win a game, but I have learned to never say never. My team came through when it counted to give me the greatest 1-18 season in the history of sports.

So a huge thanks to my second favorite team, "Whoever is playing the Pats" I love you guys.

Mock Indy picks

Who do the NFL draft experts around the web think the Colts will draft?
(This is a work in progress. I'll add more links to mocks and comments over the next few days.)

2nd round (pick #59)
OT/OG Oniel Cousins (profile)
G, Chilo Rachal (seconded) (profile)
G, Roy Schuening (agreement) (him again) (profile)
G, Eric Young (another vote)
G, Brandon Albert
OT/OG Tony Hills (profile)
I doubt the Colts spend their first pick of the draft on a guy to play guard. One or both of the guards may return, whether both, one or neither of the Guards are resigned will decide if guard is a concern. Between Dylan Gandy, Charlie Johnson and the wealth of later picks in the 08 draft I think the Colts can fill at least one, maybe both guard spots without using a first day pick.

LB_Xavier Adibi, (This one too) (Third-ed) (Popular pick) (profile) (another), A speedy, underweight LB who excels in pass coverage and could contribute on special teams Adibi is a great fit for the Colts defense. Again I disagree with the position of the player. The Colts LB corps is as strong as it's ever been and for the first time in years will not lose a starter to free agency (Boiman is the only LB FA). If Dungy and Polian love Adibi and see him as a great value at the end of the second I could see them using the pick on him, but it's not a position of need and earlier than the Colts usually take LBs.

LB, Bruce Davis, (profile) A fast aggressive LB with experience at DE. 24.5 sacks in the last two years. Pessimistic, "tweener" profile sounds like Robert Mathis' pre-drafts. Even smaller than Mathis at 229lbs but is 6'3" (an inch taller than Mathis) so could bulk up to a more appropriate size. 2nd round is too early but I'd love for the Colts to grab him in the middle rounds.

LB, Phillip Wheeler, (profile) (profile) A fast, aggressive, undersized linebacker with solid coverage skills. Fits into a cover two at OLB. Experience and sack production at DE and MLB in college makes blitzing or using him as a rush end an option.

RB, Ray Rice (J mays concurs) (profile), The 08 draft class is packed with quality RBs so a good one could make it all the way down to the Colts. The Colts say they would have taken Maurice Jones Drew if he would have fallen to them even after using their first rounder on Addai, so if the right RB falls the Colts will jump on him, no matter how set they feel at RB. Rice pushed 07 2nd round pick Brian Leonard into the background last year after splitting carries with him as a freshman.

HB/FB, Matt Forte (profile) (another) A big physical RB, a great inside runner with good hands and blocking skills. Could fill both the RB2 and Fullback spots for the Colts.
Cons: not very fast or elusive. Inexperienced as a lead blocker.

WR, Devin Thomas (profile) Put up big numbers as his team's only receiving threat. He outgained his team's #2 through #5 receivers 1260 yards to 1228 yards.

WR, James Hardy (profile) A giant (6'7") WR to contrast the trio of 6 footers the Colts have at the 1-3 spots.

TE Fred Davis (profile) (another) Excellent receiving TE with great hands and route running. Not a great blocker, but has the size and showed both effort and improvement to his blocking in college. Rated as either the best TE in the draft class or in the top 2-3.

TE, Martellus Bennett, the 6'7" 250lb Tight End from Texas A&M. He could fill both the blocking TE and big redzone target roles for the Colts. He's an excellent blocker with good hands, but is a bit slow and needs work on his route running. He could more than fill Utecht's role. He has the same strengths, but many of the same weaknesses, including this scary phrase in his profile, "Does not always secure the ball."

DE, Christopher Ellis (profile) (another) A bit of a project (underweight), very quick, with good pass rushing skills. The last player that slid to the Colts because he was too light will be playing in his first Pro Bowl Sunday, Antonie Bethea (now a impressive 203lbs).

DE, Darrell Robertson (profile) (another) a pass rushing specialist with the frame to add weight. 6'5" 240-250. Labeled a tweener, but may be bigger than Robert Mathis already.

DE, Jeremy Thompson (stats) a big DE without huge sack production, he was strong against the run. After initially dismissing this pick I realized he could fix the depth at DE in the opposite way than I had been trying to, by taking snaps away from Freeney/Mathis in running situations keeping them fresh, instead of finding another great pass rusher to replicate what they do.

DE, Cliff Avril (profile) a undersized tweener end with good speed and pass rushing skills.

DT, Pat Sims a very big DT, but may be athletic enough to fit with the Colts, the writer of the mock draft seems to know something I don't stating, "Booger McFarland is now gone."


DT, Red Bryant, (profile) (profile2) Finally everyone's favorite part of the mock draft season, calling someone a moron for not knowing which type of player fits into each of the 32 team's systems. Huge (6'5" 330lbs), neither quick nor fast and having little impact as a pass rusher Bryant is not a Colts DT.

Round 3 (pick #93):
OG, Drew Radovich (draft-tek agrees) (profile)
See comments on Guards above

Xavier Adibi, LB I like him better here. He sounds like a Colts LB.

Geno Hayes, a quick LB that can cover the pass well and isn't a liability against the run
TE, Jacob Tamme (profile) a fast receiving TE, he has great hands, but is a poor blocker. He would be a replacement for Clark (not leaving) or Fletcher, not Utecht. He doesn't block well enough to be a true TE. He's a Dallas Clark type TE. His hands might be better than Clark's but his blocking will be worse. If the Colts don't bring back Fletcher or decide not to keep Clark beyond the one year franchise tag that they've said they'll put on him, Tamme could be the replacement as a slot WR/3rd down TE.

RB/WR, Christopher Johnson (profile) (another)
Pro: One of the fastest players in college football, an excellent receiver and return threat, could be a WR or 3rd down back.
Con: Blocking needs work, not an effective inside runner, likely never to be an every down back, may be unable to play full time at WR or RB at an NFL level after bouncing between the two throughout college.
He could add even more flexibility to the Colts offense while taking over kick (and possibly punt) return duties, or we could cut off his hands and attach them to Kenton Keith.

WR, Andre Caldwell, (profile) A big play threat with the hands to catch the most passes in the history of the Florida Gators. Caldwell is fast, runs good routes and is quick out of cuts. At 6 foot 200lbs he looks like the rest of the Colts WR corps.

DT, Frank Okam (profile) a massive 6'5" 320lb DT with quickness, who is likely to be gone long before this pick.

OT/OG, Chad Rinehart (profile) A dominant Left Tackle at the 1-AA level for Northern Iowa, he was all the physical tools to be successful in the NFL at tackle or guard.

OT/OG Heath Benedict (profile) Like Rinehart a small school star, all the tools, but didn't face top competition. Benedict began at Tennessee, but academic problems caused his move to D-II.

FB Jacob Hester (profile) another HB/FB tweener. Good hands, converts short yardage situations often and is great on special teams. Not fast or explosive as a HB and not a powerful lead blocking FB.

Round 4:
TE, Jacob Tamme, again. Better value this time.

WR, DJ Hall (profile) Depth at receiver is good.