45/63 (71.4%) posted record so far. For the full season 156/240 (65%), so I need only two correct picks to top last season. Of ESPNs experts Hodge, Jaworski and Schlereth have better records, Hodge and Schlereth are within reach but Jaworski ran away from the competition. Matching my 156 correct picks without picking any of the Monday Night Football games (since he was announcing them). Schlereth earned my respect last year by being the first commentator to mention excellent and more run oriented D-line play as a reason for the Colts run D improving in the playoffs (though it took him until just before the AFC Championship game). Most other theories revolved around the players being sick of hearing they were bad or it being a fluke. So I can deal with Schlereth beating me he is better than most at ESPN.
It's also not a surprise that the two ESPN commentators whose jobs are focused on watching and breaking down game film did very well in determining pick team would win. Watching the games actually helps? I thought you just had to watch ESPN to have them tell you which teams are good.
Beating even Jaworski was Brian Burke at bbnflstats.com using a statistical model he explains here. He is at 69.8% for the year. On to my picks.
NE @ NYG I hope the Giants put up a fight. The "Tom Brady-Randy Moss lob deep balls every play to get the NFL TD records" show didn't even fly vs the Dolphins the Giants have got to be stop that from happening. I've beat the "Brady needs more attempts/games/completions to tie the record than Manning took to set it" line into the ground so I'll lay off it a while. If (probably when) he ties the record I'll do a full write up (rant).
SEA @ ATL Who is the better team when the good team is resting starters? Hard question but the Falcons are so bad and "resting" Shaun Alexander probably helps the Seahawks chances.
NO @ CHI The Bears have pretty well proven they can beat the Packers, but somehow this hasn't translated into beating anyone else.
DET @ GB Don't make fun of Jon Kitna too much. If you had been sacked 111 times in the last two years you'd say some crazy shit too.
CIN @ MIA Carson Palmer has thrown a career high INTs and career low yards per completion along with the least TDs and yards per attempt since his rookie season. All while being sacked less times than ever. Definitely a step back for a guy who was considered the best QB not named Peyton Manning or Tom Brady going into the season (maybe Brees too)
JAC @ HOU The Jags are very good but the Colts have beat them twice now. That is getting lost in the hype building around them from reporters whose jaws are too sore to continue blowing the Pats and wouldn't touch the "boring" Colts with a ten foot pole.
CAR @ TB The Bucs sat starters very early last week (like I hoped) they are probably going to do it again but I'm refusing to think myself in knots figuring out what will happen if they do sit starters. Just taking the better team.
BUF @ PHI Bills lost their stud LT to injury. Colts fans know how this hurts an offense and when you have Trent Edwards instead of Peyton Manning you can't afford that kind of lost production.
SF @ CLE
-I come up off the bench and put points up on the scoreboard-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-
-I start as third string and outplay two top ten picks-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-
-I score three TDs for every interception
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-
-I take a top 3 Pats Pick and put it into the teens-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-
Put it to this beat
PIT @ BAL The Steelers might be better off with the Dump Truck. His FO stats are way better than Parkers. Only time will tell.
SD @ OAK Raiders will get stomped by a good running team again
DAL @ WAS Dallas has got to be sitting/pulling starters and the Redskins are good enough to take advantage. Don't bother pointing out this goes again what I said above about the Panthers game, I already know.
STL @ ARI The game I'm looking forward two this week, for sure. Never trust the Cardnals is the ironclad rule helping me with this pick.
MIN @ DEN Purple Jesus will finally run free against the awful Denver run D.
KC @ NYJ Oh, God. Why do they even bother playing this one. Um the Jets?
TEN @ IND Sorgi time is a merry time of year.
Showing posts with label Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picks. Show all posts
Friday, December 28, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Lookin' Good
Colts have done something that has only been done three times in NFL history and all three of those previous teams have gone on to win the Superbowl. They are the forth team ever to win the Superbowl and go on to win more games the following year. 1975 Steelers, 1989 49ers and 1998 Broncos were the first 3, all repeated as champs. (Thanks for another awesome bit of football knowledge, Football Outsiders)
Colts have another game with little meaning remaining on the schedule and a bye week to get healthy before the playoffs. I'm hoping for a few series up to a half from the 1st teams then sit them. Get Well Soon, Robert Mathis, Ryan Diem, Antoine Bethea, Josh Thomas, Marvin Harrison, Raheem Brock, Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez Dwight Freeney (for next season) and everyone I've missed.
Picks were an awesome 12 of 16 (75%). Maybe I'm lucky, maybe it's been an easy few weeks to pick, but I'm patting myself on the back for these last couple weeks anyway.
Colts have another game with little meaning remaining on the schedule and a bye week to get healthy before the playoffs. I'm hoping for a few series up to a half from the 1st teams then sit them. Get Well Soon, Robert Mathis, Ryan Diem, Antoine Bethea, Josh Thomas, Marvin Harrison, Raheem Brock, Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez Dwight Freeney (for next season) and everyone I've missed.
Picks were an awesome 12 of 16 (75%). Maybe I'm lucky, maybe it's been an easy few weeks to pick, but I'm patting myself on the back for these last couple weeks anyway.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Sunday Recap
The Texans scored the first and the last touchdowns, but that was all for them. Between the Texans two touchdowns the Colts put up 38 points all scored in the first 3 quarters, before the starters were pulled. Minus the hopefully minor injury to Addai this game couldn't have gone any better. The offense was clicking, the D was strong, allowing only 7 points until the Texans scored in the final minute against the backups. Even the special teams play was only below average instead of awful. If Addai is ok and I'd guess that he is since he returned after his injury long enough for a powerful TD run up the middle, then the game was a total success.
Tom Brady continues to throw lots of passes and throw most of them very well. He now has 536 attempts, completing 366 for 68.3% completions, 4450 yards, 48 TDs and 8 INTs. At the end of his record breaking 2004 season Peyton Manning had thrown 39 less passes, completed the same number (336), for a completion % 0.7% lower, 107 more yards, one more, TD and two more INTs. Tom Brady has a very good chance of tying and breaking Manning's TD record, but to do it he will have had to have thrown the ball over 40 more times, and will have needed more completions and games than Manning did. Brady is great, but this season is far from proof that he is better than Manning.
In what little of the Pats-Dolphins blowout I could stand to watch I saw Brady throw a ball to a receiver running up the sideline which flew directly between the Dolphins safety's hands as he jumped in front for the easy pick and into Gaffney's hands for Brady's 48th TD . The announcers then praised Brady's arm strength for 5 straight minutes before even mentioning how unbelievably lucky he was to not have it picked off. Absolutely Ridiculous.
The Shaun Hill led Niners continued to give the Pats a big "F YOU" with another win today. Now the highest the 1st round pick obtained by the Pats can be is 4th and the lowest 14th. If the season ended today it would be the 8th. Keep on climbing Niners!
Kyle Orton completed a higher % of his passes for a higher yards per attempt and per completion and threw more TDs. Favre did have two more gun-slings.
Picks were 11 of 15 and the Chargers over the Broncos pick won't have me worried.
Tom Brady continues to throw lots of passes and throw most of them very well. He now has 536 attempts, completing 366 for 68.3% completions, 4450 yards, 48 TDs and 8 INTs. At the end of his record breaking 2004 season Peyton Manning had thrown 39 less passes, completed the same number (336), for a completion % 0.7% lower, 107 more yards, one more, TD and two more INTs. Tom Brady has a very good chance of tying and breaking Manning's TD record, but to do it he will have had to have thrown the ball over 40 more times, and will have needed more completions and games than Manning did. Brady is great, but this season is far from proof that he is better than Manning.
In what little of the Pats-Dolphins blowout I could stand to watch I saw Brady throw a ball to a receiver running up the sideline which flew directly between the Dolphins safety's hands as he jumped in front for the easy pick and into Gaffney's hands for Brady's 48th TD . The announcers then praised Brady's arm strength for 5 straight minutes before even mentioning how unbelievably lucky he was to not have it picked off. Absolutely Ridiculous.
The Shaun Hill led Niners continued to give the Pats a big "F YOU" with another win today. Now the highest the 1st round pick obtained by the Pats can be is 4th and the lowest 14th. If the season ended today it would be the 8th. Keep on climbing Niners!
Kyle Orton completed a higher % of his passes for a higher yards per attempt and per completion and threw more TDs. Favre did have two more gun-slings.
Picks were 11 of 15 and the Chargers over the Broncos pick won't have me worried.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Week 16 Picks
Steelers won to get the week off to a good start. Willie Parker's injury is unfortunate, but it allows Najeh "The Dump Truck" Davenport to take over the featured role in Pittsburgh. If you aren't familiar with the nickname or the story behind it you are missing out. I'm not sure if all the details ever came out, if they did someone please tell me, but the name refers to an incident while Davenport was at the University of Miami. Again, I don't know the full story but it ends with him dropping a deuce in a female student's laundry hamper. Link.
Already took the Cowboys for tonight. Sounds like Romo is good to go so I'm not worried about that one.
Bengals @ Browns Bengals=bad
Cheifs @ Lions Cheifs=bad
Texans @ Colts All I want to see in this game is no more injuries and the offense getting on track. Nothing else matters.
Packers @ Bears Come on, Bring Grossman back. Lovie, your QB will suck no matter which one you pick so at least let him fail spectacularly.
Giants @ Bills I really want the Giants to play their starters next week. If the Pats get to cruise to 16-0 against the Giants second stringers I'll be sad. Come on someone take them down. The hype is painfully obnoxious. Go Bills
Raiders @ Jags Now I really know how bad Garrard got robbed he's had this great season all while working a second job and it's a second job that ain't easy.
Eagles @ Saints FO has a nice piece about how amazingly awful Jason David has been in the Saints scheme. Putting a below average corner from a zone D into a man defense? Great Idea.
Bucs @ Niners Bucs have clinched their division and can't earn a 1st round bye so maybe it's time to ease off the gas and let some more Shaun Hill magic kill the Pats draft position.
Falcons @ Cardnals I don't think it's possible for the Falcons to go any lower. Even getting blown out by the Cardnals would just be a sideways move.
Dolphins @ Pats The Jets couldn't pull it off and the Dolphins got a win, so the best scenario for the Pats first loss is vs Colts in the AFC Championship. Still, Go Dolphins.
Ravens @ Seahawks The Ravens are chasing the Falcons to the bottom and the Seahawks were awful last week, but the Ravens clearly suck more.
Jets @ Titans I don't say many nice things about Vince Young but he does throw a better deep ball than Chad Pennington.
Redskins @ Vikings Even Tarvaris Jackson transforming back into the guy who could barely complete half his passes playing D2 football can't stop Purple Jesus.
Broncos @ Chargers Even Norv Turner can't turn a 13+ win team into one that misses the playoffs, you need Brian Billick for that.
Already took the Cowboys for tonight. Sounds like Romo is good to go so I'm not worried about that one.
Bengals @ Browns Bengals=bad
Cheifs @ Lions Cheifs=bad
Texans @ Colts All I want to see in this game is no more injuries and the offense getting on track. Nothing else matters.
Packers @ Bears Come on, Bring Grossman back. Lovie, your QB will suck no matter which one you pick so at least let him fail spectacularly.
Giants @ Bills I really want the Giants to play their starters next week. If the Pats get to cruise to 16-0 against the Giants second stringers I'll be sad. Come on someone take them down. The hype is painfully obnoxious. Go Bills
Raiders @ Jags Now I really know how bad Garrard got robbed he's had this great season all while working a second job and it's a second job that ain't easy.
Eagles @ Saints FO has a nice piece about how amazingly awful Jason David has been in the Saints scheme. Putting a below average corner from a zone D into a man defense? Great Idea.
Bucs @ Niners Bucs have clinched their division and can't earn a 1st round bye so maybe it's time to ease off the gas and let some more Shaun Hill magic kill the Pats draft position.
Falcons @ Cardnals I don't think it's possible for the Falcons to go any lower. Even getting blown out by the Cardnals would just be a sideways move.
Dolphins @ Pats The Jets couldn't pull it off and the Dolphins got a win, so the best scenario for the Pats first loss is vs Colts in the AFC Championship. Still, Go Dolphins.
Ravens @ Seahawks The Ravens are chasing the Falcons to the bottom and the Seahawks were awful last week, but the Ravens clearly suck more.
Jets @ Titans I don't say many nice things about Vince Young but he does throw a better deep ball than Chad Pennington.
Redskins @ Vikings Even Tarvaris Jackson transforming back into the guy who could barely complete half his passes playing D2 football can't stop Purple Jesus.
Broncos @ Chargers Even Norv Turner can't turn a 13+ win team into one that misses the playoffs, you need Brian Billick for that.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
More quick stuff
Colts win an ugly game. I was very happy with the defense, but the offense, especially the running game worried me. They can't think about resting most of the offense until they are in sync. The win locks up the #2 seed along with a 5th straight AFC South title and a NFL record 5th straight 12+ win season for the Colts.
Colts move up to #2 in DVOA and back into the top 10 highest DVOAs ever measured. If this team had been as healthy as 2004/2005 they would be the best Colts team ever.
Miami actually won. Football Outsiders had been saying they aren't that bad for a while now, but I hoped for history anyway.
Picks were 10 of 16. Not bad, after two great weeks picking a worse one was coming. This was about the normal week I've had picking before I started posting, 62.5% this week, 61.3% last season and 62.7% unposted this season. This week brings my posted record to 33/47 (70.2%) awesome.
Ben Utecht's catch % took a little fall from an amazing 88% to a still outstanding 83%. He's an Restricted Free Agent after the season. I'm hoping the Colts at least give him a Jason David like offer. 4th round tender, he'll either be back for cheap or Colts get another pick and with Polian doing the drafting a 4th rounder is a pretty good bet to be good.
Tom Brady did not throw 4 TDs in 21 or less attempts, actually he threw none. Meaning if he does break the TD record it will have taken him more attempts to do so than Manning needed. Counting his touchdowns before they're scored, anyone? Brady needs 3 TD passes in his next 61 to match the 564 passes that Dan Marino threw to set the TD record at 48.
And finally thanks to Big Blue Shoe at the awesome Colts blog Stampede Blue for (accidentally?) coming up with a better blog name. Dropped a "N" out of there, sounds better and it might be how everyone but me read it as.
Shaken-N-Baken----> Shake-n-Baken
Colts move up to #2 in DVOA and back into the top 10 highest DVOAs ever measured. If this team had been as healthy as 2004/2005 they would be the best Colts team ever.
Miami actually won. Football Outsiders had been saying they aren't that bad for a while now, but I hoped for history anyway.
Picks were 10 of 16. Not bad, after two great weeks picking a worse one was coming. This was about the normal week I've had picking before I started posting, 62.5% this week, 61.3% last season and 62.7% unposted this season. This week brings my posted record to 33/47 (70.2%) awesome.
Ben Utecht's catch % took a little fall from an amazing 88% to a still outstanding 83%. He's an Restricted Free Agent after the season. I'm hoping the Colts at least give him a Jason David like offer. 4th round tender, he'll either be back for cheap or Colts get another pick and with Polian doing the drafting a 4th rounder is a pretty good bet to be good.
Tom Brady did not throw 4 TDs in 21 or less attempts, actually he threw none. Meaning if he does break the TD record it will have taken him more attempts to do so than Manning needed. Counting his touchdowns before they're scored, anyone? Brady needs 3 TD passes in his next 61 to match the 564 passes that Dan Marino threw to set the TD record at 48.
And finally thanks to Big Blue Shoe at the awesome Colts blog Stampede Blue for (accidentally?) coming up with a better blog name. Dropped a "N" out of there, sounds better and it might be how everyone but me read it as.
Shaken-N-Baken----> Shake-n-Baken
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Week 15 Picks
1 of 2 on the NFL Network games. I'll take it when it hurts the Pats draft position. Go Niners. If the 49ers win out with Shaun Hill he is my hero. 21 for 28 for 7 yards per attempt, a TD and no picks passing with a rushing TD thrown in. That's awesome. It's against the Bengals D, but he put up almost the exact same stat line last week against the Vikings. I didn't know he played well last week. Everyone was too busy making who the hell is Shaun Hill jokes (if I would have put any analysis into that game I would probably be guilty as well) to mention that he played far better than you could ever expect from a third string QB that enters mid-game because of an injury.
Go Niners, keep the Pat's dirty cheating hands off of a top 5 pick.
Time for the Sunday picks (getting them in tonight in case I oversleep).
Titans at Cheifs: When you get blown out by the Broncos you suck. When Vince Young is your Quarterback you also suck, but not as much.
Ravens at Dolphins: The Ravens are perfectly capable of losing to the Dolphins, but they can't because the Dolphins first win with be against the Pats and it will be the greatest moment in football history. You will be able to hear the heads of every smug Patriots fan exploding from across the country. (Not really though. About the Dolphins winning, not the exploding heads, that one would actually happen).
Patriots at Jets: My rank how awesome/hilarious the Pats losing their first game to would be. 1. Dolphins, 14-0 losing to 0-14. 2. Colts in the AFC championship, preferably with another game ending INT from Mr. Super Clutch. 3. Jets this week. "You cheated got what you deserved, stop crying like a little bitch about it."-Mangini after Belichick blows of the postgame handshake.
Bills at Browns: "Who'd after though this one would have playoff implicationts ROFL LOL!!!!!!1111!!111!!. -Everyone I hate
Seahawks at Panthers: {Insert "Vinny Testaverde is old" joke here} because it's the only interesting thing to say about the Panthers.
The Seahawks are looking better now that they've started to realize Shaun Alexander is washed up and adjusted. It only took them half the season.
Cardnals at Saints: How did no one see the Saints collapse coming? Their big defensive upgrade was Jason David. The Cardnals aren't good either so I had no real opinion. DVOA Says, the Saints.
Falcons at Bucs: Tampa Bay is still very good very quietly. I don't blame Petrino for fleeing the disaster that the Falcons are but the way he did it was the problem. He saw a way out and bailed about as fast as humanly possible.
Packers at Rams: Rams suck, I'm sleepy, more on this shitty matchup tomorrow or never.
Jags at Steelers: They lost to the Pats, but so has everyone. Jags are dangerous, but Pittsburgh is still the 3rd best team in the AFC. If the Steelers lose the Colts can clinch the 2 seed and first round bye with a win.
Colts at Raiders: I'm really surprised to hear so many people saying this is where JaMarcus should get his first start. Really? Against the number one pass defense? Against a team who's offense should put them behind quickly and keep them there? If your not putting the top pick in at the start of the season and hoping they can making it through without suffering irreparable emotional and physical damage (Peyton made it, David Carr however) then why throw them in a bad matchup. You've waited 14 weeks one more won't kill you.
Chargers
Cowboys
Vikings
Sleep
Go Niners, keep the Pat's dirty cheating hands off of a top 5 pick.
Time for the Sunday picks (getting them in tonight in case I oversleep).
Titans at Cheifs: When you get blown out by the Broncos you suck. When Vince Young is your Quarterback you also suck, but not as much.
Ravens at Dolphins: The Ravens are perfectly capable of losing to the Dolphins, but they can't because the Dolphins first win with be against the Pats and it will be the greatest moment in football history. You will be able to hear the heads of every smug Patriots fan exploding from across the country. (Not really though. About the Dolphins winning, not the exploding heads, that one would actually happen).
Patriots at Jets: My rank how awesome/hilarious the Pats losing their first game to would be. 1. Dolphins, 14-0 losing to 0-14. 2. Colts in the AFC championship, preferably with another game ending INT from Mr. Super Clutch. 3. Jets this week. "You cheated got what you deserved, stop crying like a little bitch about it."-Mangini after Belichick blows of the postgame handshake.
Bills at Browns: "Who'd after though this one would have playoff implicationts ROFL LOL!!!!!!1111!!111!!. -Everyone I hate
Seahawks at Panthers: {Insert "Vinny Testaverde is old" joke here} because it's the only interesting thing to say about the Panthers.
The Seahawks are looking better now that they've started to realize Shaun Alexander is washed up and adjusted. It only took them half the season.
Cardnals at Saints: How did no one see the Saints collapse coming? Their big defensive upgrade was Jason David. The Cardnals aren't good either so I had no real opinion. DVOA Says, the Saints.
Falcons at Bucs: Tampa Bay is still very good very quietly. I don't blame Petrino for fleeing the disaster that the Falcons are but the way he did it was the problem. He saw a way out and bailed about as fast as humanly possible.
Packers at Rams: Rams suck, I'm sleepy, more on this shitty matchup tomorrow or never.
Jags at Steelers: They lost to the Pats, but so has everyone. Jags are dangerous, but Pittsburgh is still the 3rd best team in the AFC. If the Steelers lose the Colts can clinch the 2 seed and first round bye with a win.
Colts at Raiders: I'm really surprised to hear so many people saying this is where JaMarcus should get his first start. Really? Against the number one pass defense? Against a team who's offense should put them behind quickly and keep them there? If your not putting the top pick in at the start of the season and hoping they can making it through without suffering irreparable emotional and physical damage (Peyton made it, David Carr however) then why throw them in a bad matchup. You've waited 14 weeks one more won't kill you.
Chargers
Cowboys
Vikings
Sleep
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Pro Bowl Voting closed, picks, pats
Really? After 13 games. That sucks. I didn't know that. And I thought that opening the voting as early as they do was the big problem with how it was set up. Starting the voting before mid-season and ending it before the season ends guarantees it will be a popularity contest. Do it right or take away the fan's vote. Allow voting over the last few weeks of the season and end it when the regular season does. Probowlers are announced a week from today. I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about them.
12 0f 16 on the picks, bringing by posted record to 23 of 31 (74.1%) Not too bad.
If Tom Brady doesn't throw the 4 TD passes he needs to tie the single season record in his next 21 attempts, it will have taken him more passes to tie the record than it took Peyton to set it. Brady is having an amazing season by any measure, but the raw (huge) numbers are less impressive when you consider the number of attempts he's taking to get there. He's thrown for 4095 yards and 45 TDs in 476 attempts. In Manning's record breaking 2004 season he threw for 4557 yards and 49 TDs in 497 attempts.
Brady is throwing the ball very well, he's also throwing it a lot. 36.6 attempts a game.
12 0f 16 on the picks, bringing by posted record to 23 of 31 (74.1%) Not too bad.
If Tom Brady doesn't throw the 4 TD passes he needs to tie the single season record in his next 21 attempts, it will have taken him more passes to tie the record than it took Peyton to set it. Brady is having an amazing season by any measure, but the raw (huge) numbers are less impressive when you consider the number of attempts he's taking to get there. He's thrown for 4095 yards and 45 TDs in 476 attempts. In Manning's record breaking 2004 season he threw for 4557 yards and 49 TDs in 497 attempts.
Brady is throwing the ball very well, he's also throwing it a lot. 36.6 attempts a game.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Recapping Sunday
The Colts are finally getting healthy and back to their normally elite level of play. They just destroyed the Ravens. Missed most of the game because I was at work, so I'll talk about the only play that I saw that really stood out, along with the stats and recaps I've seen so far.
Anthony Gonzalez's first NFL TD. Sick double move on the Raven's backup CB. They gave Gonzo over 10 yards of cushion and he sold the comeback route so well that the corner bit hard and fell over when AG turned it back upfield. Awesome route running and great speed from the rookie. It took Reggie Wayne until his 3rd year to get all the way into the offense. Gonzalez has already topped Wayne's rookie season in two less games and the current Colts offense is at least, probably more, complex than when Reggie had to learn it.
Congrats to the best QB in the NFL for his 300th TD pass, now 4th on the all-time list.
Great game by the Colts in every aspect of the game (except kick coverage, Fire Russ Purnell). No turnovers or sacks on offense. 5 turnovers forced and no points allowed until garbage time on defense. Gary Brackett needs to be doing his hula dance in Hawaii (I'll accept Glendale, AZ too) in February. I'm going here to vote for him right now.
11 for 15 on the picks, nice week already. Thought about changing the Rams-Bengals pick when I found out Brock Berlin was starting, but I decided I had balls and won't ever change a pick once it's posted. That was kind of dumb. I'll keep the no changing rule for sure but, no more Sunday picks on Thursday.
Anthony Gonzalez's first NFL TD. Sick double move on the Raven's backup CB. They gave Gonzo over 10 yards of cushion and he sold the comeback route so well that the corner bit hard and fell over when AG turned it back upfield. Awesome route running and great speed from the rookie. It took Reggie Wayne until his 3rd year to get all the way into the offense. Gonzalez has already topped Wayne's rookie season in two less games and the current Colts offense is at least, probably more, complex than when Reggie had to learn it.
Congrats to the best QB in the NFL for his 300th TD pass, now 4th on the all-time list.
Great game by the Colts in every aspect of the game (except kick coverage, Fire Russ Purnell). No turnovers or sacks on offense. 5 turnovers forced and no points allowed until garbage time on defense. Gary Brackett needs to be doing his hula dance in Hawaii (I'll accept Glendale, AZ too) in February. I'm going here to vote for him right now.
11 for 15 on the picks, nice week already. Thought about changing the Rams-Bengals pick when I found out Brock Berlin was starting, but I decided I had balls and won't ever change a pick once it's posted. That was kind of dumb. I'll keep the no changing rule for sure but, no more Sunday picks on Thursday.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Week 14 Picks
NFL network game tonight Bears-Redskins. Have to get that pick in tonight so I'll just do all of them for the week.
CHI @ WAS It's been months since we've seen "Bad" Rex. Will he be back this week? Maybe not, but do I trust him not to start unleashing the dragon? Hell no. I'll take the Redskins.
CAR @ JAC The Jags are very good. The Panthers aren't. It's that simple.
MIA @ BUF When you get blown out by the Jets you are not just a bad team, you are the worst team by far.
SD @ TEN The Chargers could blow the Titans out if they played as well as they have at times this year, but do I trust them to play well? Only about as far as I could throw Jamal Williams.
TB @ HOU A McCown brother at QB? Really? and they won? The Tampa Bay Bucs just win games.
OAK @ GB Time for the Aaron Rodgers era? I hope so just to end the sportswriters-Brett Favre orgy that's been going on for years and intensified to epic proportions with his surprise return from the land of the old washed up QBs. If he does start how many gunslings you think he'll throw? More than last weeks two?
DAL @ DET Everyone laughed at Kitna's 10 win prediction. I'm still laughing.
NYG @ PHI Was Eli adopted? The Eagles better hope so. The Giants won't blow this one.
STL @ CIN Steven Jackson is a beast. Now that he's finally back healthy the Rams are looking less bad than usual. Bulger is cleared so their good offense is back together. Football Outsiders' DVOA has a seemingly irrational love for the Bengals right now. Not letting it scare me off and will feel dumb when the Rams lose, but they're the pick.
MIN @ SF " ... and on the third week he rose" Three weeks after a minor knee sidelined him, Purple Jesus returned. Tavaris suddenly looks like a real QB, I'm shocked. If he's legit the Vikings are as scary as any team in the NFC.
ARI @ SEA Seahawks looked good last week. The Cardnals won on a questionable final call while losing their stud WRs to injury. Easy pick.
KC @ DEN I didn't think the Broncos were good last week, but I thought they could beat the Raiders. Not anymore. I officially declare the Broncos to suck.
PIT @ NE The only thing more obnoxious than guaranteeing a win is constantly whining about lack of respect. Looking at you HGHarrison. GO STEELERS!
CLE @ NYJ I'm writing last week's loss for Cleveland off. Steelers lost to the Cards too, weird things happen in the desert.
IND @ BAL I hate the Ravens so much for blowing the game. I hope the Colts crush them.
Reggie will call you "Boy" all he wants after his torches your ass Mr. McAllister.
NO @ ATL Signs of life from both teams last week. Only the Falcons did it using Chris Redman at QB. I don't know what to think about that.
CHI @ WAS It's been months since we've seen "Bad" Rex. Will he be back this week? Maybe not, but do I trust him not to start unleashing the dragon? Hell no. I'll take the Redskins.
CAR @ JAC The Jags are very good. The Panthers aren't. It's that simple.
MIA @ BUF When you get blown out by the Jets you are not just a bad team, you are the worst team by far.
SD @ TEN The Chargers could blow the Titans out if they played as well as they have at times this year, but do I trust them to play well? Only about as far as I could throw Jamal Williams.
TB @ HOU A McCown brother at QB? Really? and they won? The Tampa Bay Bucs just win games.
OAK @ GB Time for the Aaron Rodgers era? I hope so just to end the sportswriters-Brett Favre orgy that's been going on for years and intensified to epic proportions with his surprise return from the land of the old washed up QBs. If he does start how many gunslings you think he'll throw? More than last weeks two?
DAL @ DET Everyone laughed at Kitna's 10 win prediction. I'm still laughing.
NYG @ PHI Was Eli adopted? The Eagles better hope so. The Giants won't blow this one.
STL @ CIN Steven Jackson is a beast. Now that he's finally back healthy the Rams are looking less bad than usual. Bulger is cleared so their good offense is back together. Football Outsiders' DVOA has a seemingly irrational love for the Bengals right now. Not letting it scare me off and will feel dumb when the Rams lose, but they're the pick.
MIN @ SF " ... and on the third week he rose" Three weeks after a minor knee sidelined him, Purple Jesus returned. Tavaris suddenly looks like a real QB, I'm shocked. If he's legit the Vikings are as scary as any team in the NFC.
ARI @ SEA Seahawks looked good last week. The Cardnals won on a questionable final call while losing their stud WRs to injury. Easy pick.
KC @ DEN I didn't think the Broncos were good last week, but I thought they could beat the Raiders. Not anymore. I officially declare the Broncos to suck.
PIT @ NE The only thing more obnoxious than guaranteeing a win is constantly whining about lack of respect. Looking at you HGHarrison. GO STEELERS!
CLE @ NYJ I'm writing last week's loss for Cleveland off. Steelers lost to the Cards too, weird things happen in the desert.
IND @ BAL I hate the Ravens so much for blowing the game. I hope the Colts crush them.
Reggie will call you "Boy" all he wants after his torches your ass Mr. McAllister.
NO @ ATL Signs of life from both teams last week. Only the Falcons did it using Chris Redman at QB. I don't know what to think about that.
Monday, December 3, 2007
How many ways can the Ravens give the Pats a win
- Go 3 and out on the 3 drives they had the lead in the fourth quarter.
-Pass the ball on 3rd and 1. The exact same shit Ravens players were calling Billick out for earlier this season.
-Stop on 4th and 1 negated by a Ravens timeout
-Stop on 4th and 1 Pats false start lets them replay the down (Why can't they decline the penalty? The Pats were short of the first).
-4th and 6, #28 puts his hands on Ben Watson (ticky-tack, but not too ridiculous to call) when he's still in good position and has help behind him and to the sides. First down Pats.
-Bart Scott completely loses his mind and costs the Ravens 30 yards of field position. His dumb ass was still jawing and trying to go after the ref that flagged him, he had to be dragged away by teammates. He broke away from his teammates multiple times and moved towards the ref when loose. Total Moron.
-Boller throws a pass down the middle of the field, far short of the TD, with 10 seconds left and no timeouts. The pass hits Pats DB Brandon Meriweather in the chest.
-Hail Mary comes up a yard short
-Ravens WR commits blatant Offensive pass interference on the Hail Mary, against a DB that was in worse position than the WR who caught it. So the pass shouldn't have counted even if he had made it into the endzone.
As a consolation prize, that puts my picks at 11 for 15 in my first posted week and my quick calculations have my fantasy team winning by 2.81 points.
-Pass the ball on 3rd and 1. The exact same shit Ravens players were calling Billick out for earlier this season.
-Stop on 4th and 1 negated by a Ravens timeout
-Stop on 4th and 1 Pats false start lets them replay the down (Why can't they decline the penalty? The Pats were short of the first).
-4th and 6, #28 puts his hands on Ben Watson (ticky-tack, but not too ridiculous to call) when he's still in good position and has help behind him and to the sides. First down Pats.
-Bart Scott completely loses his mind and costs the Ravens 30 yards of field position. His dumb ass was still jawing and trying to go after the ref that flagged him, he had to be dragged away by teammates. He broke away from his teammates multiple times and moved towards the ref when loose. Total Moron.
-Boller throws a pass down the middle of the field, far short of the TD, with 10 seconds left and no timeouts. The pass hits Pats DB Brandon Meriweather in the chest.
-Hail Mary comes up a yard short
-Ravens WR commits blatant Offensive pass interference on the Hail Mary, against a DB that was in worse position than the WR who caught it. So the pass shouldn't have counted even if he had made it into the endzone.
As a consolation prize, that puts my picks at 11 for 15 in my first posted week and my quick calculations have my fantasy team winning by 2.81 points.
Sunday Recap/Monday Preview
3 for 5 on the late game picks. Should it have been 4 for 5 with extra 8 fantasy point for me from Kellen Winslow?
I think so. Even with two defenders on his back he gets one foot in. Oh well, Winslow is an asshole, so maybe it's karma.
The makes me 10 for 14 on my first posted picks with the only pending pick Pats over Ravens.
Tonight I'm hoping for:
-Ravens pull the upset, the myth of Patriots invincibility dies forever.
-Brady and Gostkowski outscore Vrabel and Maroney by more than 14 fantasy points to lock up a playoff spot for my fantasy team. Preferably with Brady playing poorly, marking the beginning of the end of his run at the greatest QB season ever.
Good Luck, Ravens
Go Gostkowski
I think so. Even with two defenders on his back he gets one foot in. Oh well, Winslow is an asshole, so maybe it's karma.
The makes me 10 for 14 on my first posted picks with the only pending pick Pats over Ravens.
Tonight I'm hoping for:
-Ravens pull the upset, the myth of Patriots invincibility dies forever.
-Brady and Gostkowski outscore Vrabel and Maroney by more than 14 fantasy points to lock up a playoff spot for my fantasy team. Preferably with Brady playing poorly, marking the beginning of the end of his run at the greatest QB season ever.
Good Luck, Ravens
Go Gostkowski
Saturday, December 1, 2007
NFL picks
I try to pick the winners of every NFL game, usually against a friend and/or on my own. Now I'll post them here too. Obviously it doesn't count if it wasn't posted before the games start so I'm starting fresh, but this is my (worthless here) record 157/256 (61.3%) last season good enough to beat 6 of the 7 ESPN experts. 111/177 (62.7%) so far this season.
NFL Week 13 picks (pick in bold) Year To Date 0-0
GB @ DAL- doesn't count because it was yesterday. Had the Cowboys though.
SF @ CAR Niners are awful, but I'll be rooting for them because the Pats have their 1st round pick next draft and because I'm starting Frank Gore on my fantasy team.
BUF @ WAS Good game to explain how I make my picks. I pick the better team. The better team usually wins so if I can tell who is better (the hard part) I'll usually be right. It actually makes the picks easier, no messing around overthinking it with match-ups and motivations, just who is the better team? I think the Redskins are better.
HOU @ TEN Vince Young just wins games. Not really though, Titans D will get it done.
ATL @ STL Hard one. Both teams suck, neither D is impressive, and with Bulger out the QBs are both bad. So I'll take the team with a legit offensive weapon in Steven Jackson.
SEA @ PHI They played the Pats close. That puts them in a elite little group, even if they usually look terrible.
DET @ MIN The talking TV heads like calling the Lions D opportunistic. That's just another way of saying the other team gave the game away. Hail Purple Jesus.
JAC @ IND Because I always pick the team I think is better and I'm a huge Colts fan. I always think the Colts are the better team and therefore always pick the Colts. Lets go COLTS!
SD @ KC Chargers are sometimes bad, Cheifs are always bad.
NYJ @ MIA The Jets have proven they are good enough to beat a very good team when they execute well. The Dolphins haven't executed well enough to win a single game.
DEN @ OAK The most interesting thing about this game is JaMarcus Russel might play. I hope his throws the ball through the uprights from his knees at midfield. It's what they drafted him for.
CLE @ ARI For some reason the Browns became my favorite bad team last year. I thought Brady Quinn would ruin that (make me not like them, not make them not bad). Instead they're in the race for the playoffs and Quinn firmly entrenched as the backup.
TB @ NO Bucs are quietly good. The Saints are loudly mediocre.
NYG @ CHI So happy I root for the good Manning. Eli v Rexy, could be interesting.
CIN @ PIT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiTY9D674wM
NE @ BAL The only thing getting me through this Pats run and Tom Brady offensive explosion is Brady carrying my fantasy team to the playoffs.
Lets go all the teams I picked (except for the Pats and Panthers)
NFL Week 13 picks (pick in bold) Year To Date 0-0
GB @ DAL- doesn't count because it was yesterday. Had the Cowboys though.
SF @ CAR Niners are awful, but I'll be rooting for them because the Pats have their 1st round pick next draft and because I'm starting Frank Gore on my fantasy team.
BUF @ WAS Good game to explain how I make my picks. I pick the better team. The better team usually wins so if I can tell who is better (the hard part) I'll usually be right. It actually makes the picks easier, no messing around overthinking it with match-ups and motivations, just who is the better team? I think the Redskins are better.
HOU @ TEN Vince Young just wins games. Not really though, Titans D will get it done.
ATL @ STL Hard one. Both teams suck, neither D is impressive, and with Bulger out the QBs are both bad. So I'll take the team with a legit offensive weapon in Steven Jackson.
SEA @ PHI They played the Pats close. That puts them in a elite little group, even if they usually look terrible.
DET @ MIN The talking TV heads like calling the Lions D opportunistic. That's just another way of saying the other team gave the game away. Hail Purple Jesus.
JAC @ IND Because I always pick the team I think is better and I'm a huge Colts fan. I always think the Colts are the better team and therefore always pick the Colts. Lets go COLTS!
SD @ KC Chargers are sometimes bad, Cheifs are always bad.
NYJ @ MIA The Jets have proven they are good enough to beat a very good team when they execute well. The Dolphins haven't executed well enough to win a single game.
DEN @ OAK The most interesting thing about this game is JaMarcus Russel might play. I hope his throws the ball through the uprights from his knees at midfield. It's what they drafted him for.
CLE @ ARI For some reason the Browns became my favorite bad team last year. I thought Brady Quinn would ruin that (make me not like them, not make them not bad). Instead they're in the race for the playoffs and Quinn firmly entrenched as the backup.
TB @ NO Bucs are quietly good. The Saints are loudly mediocre.
NYG @ CHI So happy I root for the good Manning. Eli v Rexy, could be interesting.
CIN @ PIT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiTY9D674wM
NE @ BAL The only thing getting me through this Pats run and Tom Brady offensive explosion is Brady carrying my fantasy team to the playoffs.
Lets go all the teams I picked (except for the Pats and Panthers)
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