Friday, December 28, 2007

Last week of Picks

45/63 (71.4%) posted record so far. For the full season 156/240 (65%), so I need only two correct picks to top last season. Of ESPNs experts Hodge, Jaworski and Schlereth have better records, Hodge and Schlereth are within reach but Jaworski ran away from the competition. Matching my 156 correct picks without picking any of the Monday Night Football games (since he was announcing them). Schlereth earned my respect last year by being the first commentator to mention excellent and more run oriented D-line play as a reason for the Colts run D improving in the playoffs (though it took him until just before the AFC Championship game). Most other theories revolved around the players being sick of hearing they were bad or it being a fluke. So I can deal with Schlereth beating me he is better than most at ESPN.
It's also not a surprise that the two ESPN commentators whose jobs are focused on watching and breaking down game film did very well in determining pick team would win. Watching the games actually helps? I thought you just had to watch ESPN to have them tell you which teams are good.
Beating even Jaworski was Brian Burke at using a statistical model he explains here. He is at 69.8% for the year. On to my picks.

NE @ NYG I hope the Giants put up a fight. The "Tom Brady-Randy Moss lob deep balls every play to get the NFL TD records" show didn't even fly vs the Dolphins the Giants have got to be stop that from happening. I've beat the "Brady needs more attempts/games/completions to tie the record than Manning took to set it" line into the ground so I'll lay off it a while. If (probably when) he ties the record I'll do a full write up (rant).

SEA @ ATL Who is the better team when the good team is resting starters? Hard question but the Falcons are so bad and "resting" Shaun Alexander probably helps the Seahawks chances.

NO @ CHI The Bears have pretty well proven they can beat the Packers, but somehow this hasn't translated into beating anyone else.

DET @ GB Don't make fun of Jon Kitna too much. If you had been sacked 111 times in the last two years you'd say some crazy shit too.

CIN @ MIA Carson Palmer has thrown a career high INTs and career low yards per completion along with the least TDs and yards per attempt since his rookie season. All while being sacked less times than ever. Definitely a step back for a guy who was considered the best QB not named Peyton Manning or Tom Brady going into the season (maybe Brees too)

JAC @ HOU The Jags are very good but the Colts have beat them twice now. That is getting lost in the hype building around them from reporters whose jaws are too sore to continue blowing the Pats and wouldn't touch the "boring" Colts with a ten foot pole.

CAR @ TB The Bucs sat starters very early last week (like I hoped) they are probably going to do it again but I'm refusing to think myself in knots figuring out what will happen if they do sit starters. Just taking the better team.

BUF @ PHI Bills lost their stud LT to injury. Colts fans know how this hurts an offense and when you have Trent Edwards instead of Peyton Manning you can't afford that kind of lost production.

-I come up off the bench and put points up on the scoreboard-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I start as third string and outplay two top ten picks-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I score three TDs for every interception
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

-I take a top 3 Pats Pick and put it into the teens-
-How you do that?-
-I call it Shaun Hill magic-

Put it to this beat

PIT @ BAL The Steelers might be better off with the Dump Truck. His FO stats are way better than Parkers. Only time will tell.

SD @ OAK Raiders will get stomped by a good running team again

DAL @ WAS Dallas has got to be sitting/pulling starters and the Redskins are good enough to take advantage. Don't bother pointing out this goes again what I said above about the Panthers game, I already know.

STL @ ARI The game I'm looking forward two this week, for sure. Never trust the Cardnals is the ironclad rule helping me with this pick.

MIN @ DEN Purple Jesus will finally run free against the awful Denver run D.

KC @ NYJ Oh, God. Why do they even bother playing this one. Um the Jets?

TEN @ IND Sorgi time is a merry time of year.

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