Monday, December 10, 2007

The least homerish Pro Bowl ballot I'll fill out this year Part 1

I've done one or two already (what is it they allow, like 25?), but I'm really going to take a look at who deserves it instead taking the obvious picks plus almost every Colt on the ballot and rounding out the ballot with a few guesses. Please, feel free to disagree and tell me why another guy deserves it more, I'm listening and have 20 some ballots left.

Easy decisions : Peyton, Brady
3rd QB candidates: Anderson, Garrard, Roethlisberger, Palmer
Arguments: Palmer has the most yards, but also the most INTs. Roethlisberger has the best yards per attempt, completion % and is tied with Anderson for the most TDs. Garrard has the least INTs by far. FO's DPAR (as of last week) has them ranked Anderson, Palmer, Garrard with Big Ben behind Cutler for 7th in the AFC, but he's played well behind an awful line and is under constant pressure. Garrard is hurt by his missed time, but DVOA has him as the 2nd best QB in the NFL per play. After watching him against the Colts last week, he earned my respect and now he gets my vote.
My Votes: Peyton, Brady, Garrard

Easy decisions : Romo, Favre
3rd QB candidates: Kitna, Hasselbeck, Brees
Arguments: Kitna has the most yards and yards per attempt. Hasselbeck has thrown the most TDs and the least picks. Brees has the highest completion %, but the most picks and is throwing tons of short stuff (very low yards per attempt) Bress's high completion % with bad yards per attempt and INTs reminds me a bit of Carr and Frye last year, but Bress isn't facing the kind of pressure those bad QBs did (tied for the least sacks of any qualifying QB). DPAR likes Brees by a decent amount and he has the best DVOA by a smaller margin. FO's stats also like Garcia. They don't like Kitna. I like my QBs to not turn the ball over and not remind me of two washed up QBs, it's Hasselbeck.
My Votes: Romo, Favre and Hasselbeck

Easy Choices: Addai, Tomlison
Why?: The Top 2 backs in the AFC in rushing TDs and DPAR, neither has fumbled. Addai is only averaging 4.1 a carry but has one of the top success rates in the league. Meaning he's consistently moving the Colts towards first downs and his per carry average is likely hurt by many (successful) 3rd and short carries.
3rd RB Candidates: Parker, McGahee, Justin Fargas, Fred Taylor,
Arguments: Parker is leading the league in rushing, but he's averaging only 4 yards a carry and is exactly the perfect example of a "boom or bust" back (he breaks big runs, but is stopped for little yardage a ton, making sustaining a drive very hard for his team). DPAR and DVOA hate him, with all the passion a computer model can possibly hate with. He's ranked in the 40s of backs with 75 or more rushes. His four fumbles and bad success rate are the reason. McGahee is 2nd in the AFC in yards and has 7 TDs, but he has a poor success rate to go with his mediocre 4.2YPC. Fargas came out of nowhere to become the key to the Raiders (bad) offense, 920 yards, 4.7 a carry, decent success rate, Justin Fargas a surprisingly decent choice. Fred Taylor, high YPC + bad success rate="boom and bust" or garbage yards (gain of 12 on a 3rd and 16 draw, etc). Ronnie Brown was tearing it up before his injury and would have made this ugly debate moot if he had stayed healthy.
My Votes: Addai, LdT, and Fargas I guess.

Easy Choices: Westbrook, Marion Barber III, Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson
Why?: Marion Barber III (aka MB3, my 2nd favorite nickname in the NFL) is 3rd in the NFC in DPAR and averaging 5 yards per carry with 7 rushing TDs. Westbrook leds the NFL in Rushing DPAR and all RBs in Receiving DPAR. 2nd in rushing yards, 4.7 a carry on the conventional stat side. 1,200 yards, 109 per game, 6.1 per carry 10TDs, 2nd in DPAR, 1st in DVOA, bow before Purple Jesus.
Arguable: Brandon Jacobs, awesome success rate, 4.9 a carry.
My Votes: Westbrook, MB3, Purple Jesus

That's all for today. More in the next few days.

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