The Moss Effect

Obviously Moss isn't the only change on the teams of the QBs being compared, but see the difference between with and without Randy Moss.

Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham in 1997 (Pre-Moss)
319-540, 59.1% completion, 3537 yards, 26 TDs, 16INTs, 6.6 yrds/att, 11.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 82.3

Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham in 1998 (rookie Moss)
327-533, 61.4% completion, 4492 yards, 41 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.4 yrds/att, 13.7 yrds/comp, QB Rating 101.5

Change in performance (1998 minus 1997)
+2.3% completion, +955 yards, +15 TDs, +0 INTs, +1.8 yards/att, +2.6 yrds/comp, +19.2 QB Rating


Daunte Culpepper 2004 (with Moss)
379-548, 69.2% completion, 4717 yards, 39 TDs, 11 INTs, 8.6 yrds/att, 12.4 yrds/comp, QB Rating 110.9, 136.2 DPAR

Daunte Culpepper and Brad Johnson in 2005 (post Moss)
323-510, 63.3% completion, 3449 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 10.7 yrds/comp, QB Rating 81.7, 32.3 DPAR

Change in performance (2004 minus 2005)
+5.9% completion, +1268 yards, +21 TDs, -5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +1.7 yrds/comp, +29.2 QB Rating, +103.9 DPAR


Kerry Collins 2004 (Pre Moss)
289-513, 56.3% completion, 3495 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 12.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 74.8, 4.8 DPAR

Kerry Collins 2005 (with Moss)
302-565, 53.5% completion, 3759 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.7 yrds/att, 12.4 yrds/comp, QB Rating 77.3, 47.5 DPAR

Change in performance (2005 minus 2004)
-2.8% completion, +264 yards, - 1TD, -8 INTs, -0.1 yrds/att, +0.3 yrds/comp, +2.5 QB Rating, +42.7 DPAR

Average change in QB performance with/without Moss pre-2007
+1.8% completion, +829 yards, +11.67 TDs, -4.33 INTs, +1.17 yrds/att, +1.53 yrds/comp, +16.97 QB Rating, +73.3 DPAR (can't find pre-2000 DPAR if anyone has a link please share)

Not using his Raiders stint where the popular opinion was Moss didn't try the average change is: +4.1% completion, +1111.5 yards, +18 TDs, -2.5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +2.15 yrds/comp, +24.2 QB Rating, +103.9 DPAR.

So a QB with Moss performs far better than the same QB a season later/earlier without him. Here's the before and after for Brady.

Tom Brady 2006 (pre Moss)
319-516, 61.8% completion, 3529 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 6.8 yrds/att, 11.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 117.2, 75.9 DPAR

Tom Brady 2007 (with Moss)
398-578, 68.9% completion, 4806 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, 8.3 yrds/att, 12.1 yrds/comp, QB Rating 87.9, (2007 DPAR should be done tomarrow night I'll update then)

Change in Brady's performance
+7.1% completion, +1277 yards, +26 TDs, -4 INTs, +1.5 yrds/att, +1 yrds/comp, +29.3 QB Rating

The Average change with a "motivated" Moss again
+4.1% completion, +1111.5 yards, +18 TDs, -2.5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +2.15 yrds/comp, +24.2 QB Rating

Similar?

If you subtract the average change from a motivated Moss you get
64.8% completion (less than 1% off Brady's previous career high), 3695 yards (lower than two previous Brady seasons), 32 TDs (4 over his career high), 10.5 INTs (1.5 below his career low), 6.7 yrds/att (below two previous seasons), 11.2 yards/comp (lower than 3 previous years) and a QB Rating of 93 (.4 of his career high)

Brady didn't play much better than you would expect a QB that had Randy Moss added to his offense. Brady just started out better than the other QBs Moss played with.

Moss for MVP?